MyTurn's week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)

[Donk4Life]

Anyone know why pinny took those games off?

[Donk4Life]

Take LSU -30.5 vs. Miss. St.

[SunOfBeach]

Hey MyTurn... just curious... why'd you have so many picks in the first phase of Pinny's early rollout when they listed a large chunk of the games (around 430), but none in their second phase (around 630) when they listed all of the other games on the board?

[MyTurn2Raise]

Mainly, because I'm a major conference guy (Big10 especially) and the early rollout was major conference teams for the most part.

While I have a ranking spreadsheet system, etc, I choose to bet only games I know where I can analyze the match-ups at the micro level in addition to macro-level generalities. For example, I know Drew Tate has not thrown a ball down the field the last two games (since his oblique strain that kept him out verse Syracuse) because I've seen every play of Iowa this year. I don't know as much about Utah State, or whoever. The early rollout was most of the teams from the BCS guaranteed conferences. Those are the teams I know best. That is why I go out of my way to compliment the posters here who specialize in the Mountain West, WAC, etc that give me tips. They fill a void in my intelligence. I know the Big10 and SEC above all. I have a pretty good grasp on the BigXII, Pac10, and ACC as well.

[SunOfBeach]

Thanks MyTurn. I had (erroneously) thought that you were primarily a numbers/computer-based systems guy, hence my confusion.

I've seen those last two Iowa games, too... and Tate has looked just horrible to me. Throwing alot of 'touch' passes, with no touch (they look like moonshots). I just don't believe AT ALL that he can mount much of a passing attack against tOSU, though they haven't looked overly crisp the last two weeks, either. But I just can't see how Iowa scores more than 10-13 points, the way their offense looked vs Iowa St or Illinois.

[bills217]

Alabama/Florida Under 38.5 +113 currently available on Pinny.

[HomerJay]

Looking forward to your insight on this pick, I'm also a huge cfb fan, noob to betting it though. No worries about OSU letdown, road game at Iowa, PSU's defense showing blueprint for slowing down OSU offense that Iowa will pick up on? I agree with pick btw, curious what makes it POY-worthy. Again, looking forward to your insight, it's always good stuff.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
Mich St -24.5 v Illinois :Illini pics 2-1 ytd

[/ QUOTE ]
Can I get a write-up of this going beyond "Illinois is teh suxxor, fade fade fade," please? I agree this is a good bet if MSU from the first half shows up, but MSU from the second half (talking ND game, of course) has very little chance of covering this, I think. Personally, if not for you making this pick, I'd be leaning heavilly toward Illinois here, especially now that I could get +26.5. It just seems like a lot of points for a team to lay when they're so primed for a letdown game, and have their undefeated, sixth ranked, in-state rival in a week. Convince me Michigan State will be focused enough that I shouldn't throw my money away betting ON (gasp!) the Illini. Ok thx bye.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Mich St -24.5 v Illinois

obviously, MSU is cash money. Illinois is teh suxxor, fade fade fade.



j/k


Last year, Sparty marched into Champaign and beat Illinois 61-14 on 48 carries for 376 yards and 26 of 34 passing for 329 yards with no turnovers.
Big deal, Illinois sucked last year, right? Well, they hadn't sucked before the MSU game.
Illinois fans and team were actually feeling pretty good about themselves. They had played 3 games previously. Week 1 was an amazing come from behind 33-30 victory verse Rutgers. Week 2 was an easy 40-19 win over San Jose State. Week 3 was Illinois' first loss, 35-20 at Cal, in a game where Illinois was leading at the half and where the final score didn't show how close the game really was.
Why did I go through all that? To show just how bad last year's Spartan team completely decimated a team that was feeling relatively good about itself in Champaign. The match-ups are just dreadful for the Illini. The thing about MSU is that their offense can and will score, score, score. It was 38-10 by halftime last year.

Unlike the boring, grind it out Hawkeye offense that didn't test the Illini deep once, MSU will go after them early and often. Illinois returns their whole secondary from last season, but freshman Vontae Davis replaced one of the startes at CB. CBs Davis and Ball have absolutely no field awareness. It's kind of funny to count the number of times they get completely turned around. I don't mean to be harsh, but I cannot count the number of times an opposing WR has had no one within 10 yards of him as he catches the deep ball. This will also be the fist time that Illinois' new outside linebackers will have to line up against spread, 4 WR sets by a BCS conference team. Don't expect them to keep up.

Then comes the running game. Well, it looks like Illinois, despite the run defense verse Iowa, is still pretty awful verse the run. After all, they allowed lowly Syracuse to smash them in the face and average over 4ypc. MSU's run attack looks very good. They replaced 3 OL from last year with very little protection or run block issues. The o-line averages well over 300 and will just flatten the Illini defense. I feel sorry for Illini DE Derek Walker as he, yet again, will be a lone soldier out there.

MSU put up gargantuan numbers on Pitt and ND. The Illini defense is nowhere near Pitt or ND. This is 40 points+ from Sparty, even with them pulling the foot off the accelerator.

NOw, we get to the other side of the ball where MSU hasn't looked that good. Hey, Illinois did put up 21 verse Syracuse and a score against Iowa. It's not even as good as it appears. Rutgers, in beating Illinois 33-0, did not allow the Illini to cross midfield once with the ball! That has to be some sort of record for futility. Against Syracuse, the game was 31-7 until Illinois got a few garbage scores against prevent defenses. Against Iowa, Juice started and, again, was able to get a garbage score once the game was 24-0. Frankly, I don't imagine Illinois getting more than one score with the game's outcome in question. Of course, I expect them to get another garbage TD that will add to the Juice highlight reel. The Illini o-line has been awful. Illinois actually has a pretty decent stable at RB, but they have achieved very little this year. Illinois is averaging just over 110 ypg verse 1A opponents on less than 3 ypc. The Illini QB's have been sacked 12 times in the 3 games verse 1A opponents. Illinois has been making multiple turnovers per game, which will likely continue with a Freshman QB and young receivers who aren't on the same page (Though Zook was smart enough to put the senior qb back in for one set of downs last week where he threw a pick on the second play---that was a sarcastic 'smart enough'). OK, so MSU's defense is no bread winner either, but they were able to hold Illinois to 2 scores and 271 yards last year. Where does MSU fall in the spectrum of Iowa, Rutgers, and Syracuse D? I suspect they aren't the worst of the lot. Expect the Illini to get 14 or so this game as well.

Special teams will continue to be disasterous for the Illini. They missed 2 FGs last week from between 40-45 (one with and one against the wind). For those counting, it's easy, Illinois has made 0 FGs so far this year. In addition, the Zooker insists on using WR DaJuan Warren (who's actually a very capable playmaker) as a punter. Illinois was still 0-0 with Iowa late into the 2nd quarter until Zook sent the WR out there for his 17 yard punt.

Basically, MSU can run and pass for whatever yardage they feel like. MSU has a vertically attacking offense (unlike Syracuse and Iowa). They get 40+. Illinois gets 2 scores (1 in garbage time). 24.5 seems too small. About 30 seems right to me.

Illinois is the suxxor, fade fade fade.

2-1 on Illini picks ytd

[BobJoeJim]

Thanks MyTurn, I still don't feel good about following with MSU, and will probably lay off, but you've convinced me not to blow my money with a bet on Illinois. Good breakdown.