$$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$

[MicroBob]

naj - but would all the lost/ticked-off subscribers or potential future subscribers make up for the EV gain on those games?


NCSt is +17.5 at FSU.
It's supposed to rain this Saturday. Not one of those "might have occasional showers" type of scenarios but a bit more significant precip than that. So I'm thinking about it.

In other news, bought a couple tix for this game.
We're in the 60th row somewhere on the 5 yd line. Woo-hoo!!

[NajdorfDefense]

To tank 10% of the time? No. You could make way more $$$ going the other way occasionally if you will run 58% the other 9 years, let's say. That's still 56.4% win-rate. [feel free to adjust #s using his, 57-58% iirc]

Then, the year [or every 9-10th week] you tank, you're getting ND 2.5 pts better, LSU at -7 instead of -8.5, OrgSt at -3 instead of 4-4.5, Tech at 3, UK at +6 instead of +3.5 -- I know you know this adds up to huge +EV. The $$$ to be made >>> $1k CFB subscriber or whatever, plus the people who understand the long-term will still stay around.

And you can tip off heavy bettors on top of that. Not saying he does, just that it's a possibility for anyone who moves the lines. Or he's running cold. Or he over-fitted his models in the off-season. Or added the wrong variable. etc.

[nhoj]

Three winners for you. Yeah I am new here so I figure I give you a gift.

Wisc +2.5 5 units
Cin +4 5 units
Kan +3 5 units
<u>Remember play with your head and not over it!!!</u> Remember play with your head and not over it!!!

[Austiger]

Okay, you edited the games. I like some of those. Hopefully that's not a bad sign.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
it's more like I have my own numbers and they've aligned with Dr Bob quite a bit over the past few years

This year, my numbers differ with him on nearly every pick...sometimes dramatically

[/ QUOTE ]

Notice how many plays he's moved down to -3 or less lately, and those he's moved over 10, 14, and 21 in recent weeks? Anyone else find that odd - like Troy last week he moved from 11 to 7.5/8, etc.
MTSU, RU, Utah, Auburn, Fresno, Neb, ND, Zona, Fla, GT.

The more I think about it, the less it seems like a coincidence. Just take opposite side on a few games you've pushed thru key numbers....undetectable. And lines move so fast most subscribers can't get the best line, so if they take a bad line it's their fault anyways.

[wiper]

"drbob is having a horrible year. Rice is winning big right now. This pick is worst than his 4** Rutgers pick over Maryland by 30. Time to fade this fading handicapper. The books aren't even worried about DrBob."

response from the dr. bob thread elsewhere...

hmmm...

[mmbt0ne]

Wow, UGA has come all the way back to be a one point favorite.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
DrBob is on UGA, GaT, UCLA, Fla, EMich, Mich St, Zona.

[/ QUOTE ]
I swear DrBob is intentionally tanking this year

[/ QUOTE ]

1-4 so far on this set.

[humdinger]

Anybody else concerned about MyTurn2Raise's well being after the Illinois win? I haven't seen his usual plethora of 2nd half picks today.

Good luck all,

hd

[dankhank]

that was a neat turnaround in the asu-wazu game just now. the refs make a TERRIBLE roughing the punter call that gives wazu a first down, and on the ensuing play arizona state intercepts the ball and takes it to the house

sometimes home cookin' still comes up tasting nasty