Omaha 8/ob really interesting hand

[knoll]

Trip Aces is actually a fairly weak hand in O8, even when it's suited to a 3. If no low or hearts comes it's awful, and there is always the chance of getting cancelled with a 3 or the last ace. With the button and sb calling, I don't see the value in the raise. They will call the extra bet for sure, and most likely the hand will be heads-up going to the turn. Therefore, if you are one of them, you're probably only going to get 1/2 the pot anyway. It doesn't seem probable that you will make both your low and flush and get called down. Thus making only an extra 1/2 a small bet. I feel slowplaying this hand gives you extra betting value on the turn/river. If you get a precarious board you can then make a move to push one or both out.

Flop: Not good, but playable. Check/call
Turn: Very bad for Hero. Check/fold (given that Hero preflop raised, a call is not unthinkable for the low or miracle Ace)

JMO - Knoll

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
The 6 of clubs doesn't help an opponent unless he has a 6 or 2 clubs in his hand.If op has a set of 10's,8's,or if he has a straight draw,the 6 doesn't help him.But the six does help hero because it keeps an op who has a 10 or 8 in his hand from winning by making 2 pr.on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]Ben - An opponent who has a set of tens or eights before the turn makes a full house (an overboat) with the six on the turn. An opponent could have made a straight on the flop (though it seems unlikely here). Or an opponent could even have a quad sixes (although that also seems unlikely) And an opponent could have picked up a club draw.

Meanwhile, all Hero has is two pair, aces over sixes plus the second nut low draw. This is an very unusual second nut low draw because it will win for low most of the time if Hero makes low on the river. If Hero makes low on the river (4 outs for nut low plus 12 outs for a probable winning second nut low), then Hero figures to win the low half by about a four or five to one margin. Hero would like to see the case ace on the river. But it's seventeen outs for only probably half the pot - figure roughly only eighty per cent good for half the pot (admittedly a very crude estimate - just a ball park figure).

I see your point about an opponent who has a ten or an eight making a losing two pair on the turn. (loosing to Hero's higher two pair if the river is a blank). But I don't think two pair will stand up on the river - not even two pair with aces on top. It could possibly end up the best high hand - but I don't think it's likely.

Thus even though the turn six makes Hero what amounts to the best two pair, I think having the best two pair is an illusion because I don't think two pair will win on the river with this board on the flop and turn - and a bet by Hero here has a poor chance to gain anything for Hero. Thus I strongly disagree the six on the turn helped Hero. I think betting the turn amounts to overplaying aces, a common mistake. Even if two aces were still available for the river (instead of only one) I wouldn't like Hero's chances after this turn card.

Hero took a stab at the pot by betting the flop - but that ploy didn't work. (Hero got two callers). Now the turn card is basically not much help to Hero. I don't see much of an advantage to betting a turn that is basically no help to Hero here. I think these guys are both going to at least call - and if they raise, what then? (rhetorical).

Much better, in my humble opinion, for Hero to back off and hope to see the river for free. I'd think that Button might bet this turn after two checks, but maybe not. As it turns out Hero's opponents go nuts, with Button raising Hero's bet and SB check-re-raising.

Button's raise looks like a possible attempt to get one-on-one with Hero, but then SB's check-re-raise looks like a pure greed move (fully expecting two callers). These might not be the actual motives of Hero's opponents here, but that's a motive consideration I'd have from Hero's point of view if I had a hand that merited a bet after this turn. As it is, Hero's turn bet amounts to a second stab at stealing the pot and simply doesn't work. (I think it overwhelmingly doesn't work in a limit Omaha-8 game after a flop like this with two callers).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
So all in all, when low is enabled, but there's no ace, deuce or trey on the board at the river, Hero should win outright ~0.694, get tied for low ~0.117, and lose low ~0.189. Something like that.

I'll check that application of math with a 10,000 run simulation.

Hero with AAA3 and a board of 6789T wins low 68.7%, ties low 12.3%, and loses low 19.9%. (Close enough).

[/ QUOTE ]

I made a mistake in my math leading up to concluding Hero should lose low 18.9%. Re-figuring, Hero should lose low
about 20.3% (still about one time out of five).

Doesn't make any difference in the conclusion, but my apologies for the error.

Buzz