($27) Shortstacked on bubble, big stack in BB, trash hand

[RexWoo]

In game I'm sure I push this one only because it's suited. I would only fold crappy unsuited cards. You'll need luck in your situation anyway. But ... I thought he had to call more than 45% for this to be -EV.

Anyway, next hand you will have to go through 2 players, with a smaller stack, and the odds imo, is that the situation will be worse.

If I fold, I surely push the J7 after that.

[ger664]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the hand in a vacuum looks like a fold, but I guess the question that I have here is whether there are other considerations to take into account other than the expected value for this hand, namely:

- The fact that we will pretty much need to open push the next hand that's folded to us
- The fact that we likely have two live cards here and if we double up we have quite a bit more FE
- The fact that ICM tends to overvalue short stacks on the bubble (so the EV of folding is probably somewhat overstated).

[/ QUOTE ]

Other considerations.

What has LAG called you when you with shoved the last 3 times ?
Is LAG pwning the other 2 stacks by shoving & restealing on the bubble ?
If you have seen him call shoves already what did he turn over ?

[marimba man]

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt there's any equity gained from being sneaky here. BB should just run the table over, as is his right.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you can only run over the table while it's the bubble. I fold a lot if I was the big stack because I know I will likely take the blinds the next two hands. This is a spot where you want to preserve the bubble as the big stack. I doubt this LAG is thinking that much so this is mostly irrelevant though...

[RexWoo]

So, going further : if you fold, next hand you will be on button. With CO on 25% and BB on 50 % (which is VERY optimistic imo) you will need a hand in the top 25% to have a better situation than the hand before (= 75% to be in a worse situation).

So I really like a push from SB.

[taipan168]

[ QUOTE ]
What has LAG called you when you with shoved the last 3 times ?

[/ QUOTE ]
He hasn't called. He folded those 3 times.

[ QUOTE ]
Is LAG pwning the other 2 stacks by shoving & restealing on the bubble ?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, he's been open raising/re-raising aggressively but has been more judicious in calling pushes from the other players (including myself)

[ QUOTE ]
If you have seen him call shoves already what did he turn over ?

[/ QUOTE ]
No hands have been shown down.

One more factor that may or may not be relevant, he said in the chat box, "taipan, the next time you steal my chips I will call you."

[Finnisher]

I'd think about folding if the 2k stack was in the BB next hand. I'm not sure there's going to be a better spot here as Rex pointed out. Obv if BB calls ATC here and the other 2 guys only call 2% we should fold and shove the next 2 hands but I wouldn't count on that. Or if it looks like one of them is going to bust out before we get a chance. Winning this, and I don't know about this specific player but usually people like to fold to shoves like this, gives us t300 and some more FE. Makes it a bit easier to shove into 2k's BB which is nice. So basically I'm saying that our stack is so small we have to shove this, with a 1k-1.5k stack I can see a fold cos the t300 are a lot less important.

I'd probably fold 82o, maybe shouldn't but I'm a nit. And I wouldn't trust SNGPT results here cos t700 doesn't leave us much choice or FE.

[ger664]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What has LAG called you when you with shoved the last 3 times ?

[/ QUOTE ]
He hasn't called. He folded those 3 times.

[ QUOTE ]
Is LAG pwning the other 2 stacks by shoving & restealing on the bubble ?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, he's been open raising/re-raising aggressively but has been more judicious in calling pushes from the other players (including myself)

[ QUOTE ]
If you have seen him call shoves already what did he turn over ?

[/ QUOTE ]
No hands have been shown down.

One more factor that may or may not be relevant, he said in the chat box, "taipan, the next time you steal my chips I will call you."

[/ QUOTE ]

I just love the last factor. IMO This will actually tighten his range, he has just warned you off and u still push, villian now thinks u want a call.

If he is any good he should see that the stack sizes are set up perfectly for him to pwn the bubble but judging by his chat I do not think he knows that.

I agree with Josem here, villian might be LAG but he is not a maniac and while he may loosen his calling range on your 4th shove I do not think that it was that loose to begin with. I have a hard time believing that he will call here with more then 50% of hands.