Ok Boys n Girls, what do I do now? - Page 3

MrWookie · #21 07-09-2007, 09:41 PM

Yes, that's right Buzz, but that's only step 1. Step 2 is converting that to EV. If we c/r, we have a 60% share of a pot that will be 16 SB, assuming AA doesn't 3bet. If he does 3bet and we cap, then we have a 60% share of a pot that's 22 SB. If we donk, we'll have a 75% share of a pot that's, well, how big do we figure? It'll be 16-18 SB, depending on whether or not AA caps our 3bet. Let's assume this guy will 3bet our c/r 75% of the time, and he'll cap our b/3b line 50% of the time. That leaves us with the following equations:

EV of c/r: 0.60 * (0.75*22 + 0.25*16) = 12.3 SB

EV of b/3b: 0.75 * (0.50 * 16 + 0.5 * 18) = 12.75 SB

Therefore, the b/3b line is better, given this specific scenario and assumptions about how our players play. Additionally, if we assume that UTG will 3bet or cap the flop with his AA 100% of the time, the EV of our c/r will be 13.2 SB vs. 13.5 SB for c/r vs. b/3b. For a more timid UTG, the gap in EV between the two lines should be wider. Betting out, with the intention of 3betting a raise from UTG is clearly the best strategy if we assume UTG has AA and the other guy has a gutshot which he'll play correctly.

This is only one case, though, so against UTG entire range, it's not totally clear that b/3b is better. We'd have to repeat this analysis for other hands in the range of each player. This is, well, rather long and tedious, but it can be done if you guys are interested in getting a definitive answer about this. At the very least, I'd like to see someone do this analysis with UTG holding AK and only betting out a given percentage of the time (50-100% or so) and not always raising our donkbet (0-50% or so), and giving one of the other guys a gutshot that he can call with profitably if UTG doesn't raise. We can then combine the EVs of each scenario (b/3b vs c/r for each hand) according to the relative probabilities he has each hand and get a better estimate for which line is superior.

Edit: I guess Buzz did convert his stove calculation to EV, but he wasn't as complete in considering the effects of fastplaying our hand beyond one bet and one raise.

MrWookie · #22 07-09-2007, 09:45 PM

Also, I'd be interested in seeing someone work out a scenario where we have three villains, one with AA, and the other two with two different gutshots that would be filled by different cards.

Shillx · #23 07-10-2007, 01:13 AM

I used KJ for my ISD. KT can pick up a double gutter redraw so bet-3bet is def better against that hand.

Maliant · #24 07-10-2007, 03:27 AM

c/r turn.

bravos1 · #25 07-10-2007, 02:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, that's right Buzz, but that's only step 1. Step 2 is converting that to EV. If we c/r, we have a 60% share of a pot that will be 16 SB, assuming AA doesn't 3bet. If he does 3bet and we cap, then we have a 60% share of a pot that's 22 SB. If we donk, we'll have a 75% share of a pot that's, well, how big do we figure? It'll be 16-18 SB, depending on whether or not AA caps our 3bet. Let's assume this guy will 3bet our c/r 75% of the time, and he'll cap our b/3b line 50% of the time. That leaves us with the following equations:

EV of c/r: 0.60 * (0.75*22 + 0.25*16) = 12.3 SB

EV of b/3b: 0.75 * (0.50 * 16 + 0.5 * 18) = 12.75 SB

[/ QUOTE ]

My only problem w/ this is obv trying to figure out villians cap/3bet %'s.

If we b/3bet, my guess is that the flop will get capped FAR LESS than if we c/r. The reason I say this is that a bet/3bet looks WAY stronger to someone holding AA here. Put yourself in villian's shoes. We have AA on this board and some b/3bets us. What range do you put them on? There is no big combo draw available since the flop is rainbowed. Is villian gonna do this w/ AQ? If so, how much can we discount it since someone going this nuts w/ AQ in a spot like this is likely to 3bet it preflop. KQ/JT? Not as likely for sure.

BUT, if we c/r, our raise can look much weaker than a b/3bet (depending on the number of callers to villians flop bet), and the likelyhood of a villian 3bet allowing us to cap (or c/r turn, depending on other players still in hand) is IMO much better.

MrWookie · #26 07-10-2007, 03:51 PM

The breakeven point, if we assume he 3bets at 75%, is that he would have to cap a little less than 25% of the time.

bravos1 · #27 07-10-2007, 04:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The breakeven point, if we assume he 3bets at 75%, is that he would have to cap a little less than 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.. I thought I mentioned that, but obviously I did not [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Maybe it's just me, but IMO most unknowns cap w/ AA in this situation far less than 25%.

bravos1 · #28 07-10-2007, 04:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The breakeven point, if we assume he 3bets at 75%, is that he would have to cap a little less than 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.. I thought I mentioned that, but obviously I did not [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Maybe it's just me, but IMO most unknowns cap w/ AA in this situation far less than 25%.

[/ QUOTE ]

With that being said, b/3b may still be better because many people will also just call down (LOL) from the first c/r...

It's very player dependant, and dealing w/ unknowns pretty much sucks in situations like this where one is trying to calculate EV situations..

The reason I lean towards c/r over b/3b is to try and trap the other players for bets as well. If we lead and he raises, the other 3 are most likely to fold. If we c/r, hopefully we get some people to peel their gutshots or A hi, or bottom pair, or whatever.

Maliant · #29 07-10-2007, 04:12 PM

No one waits until turn to c/r here?

bravos1 · #30 07-10-2007, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No one waits until turn to c/r here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in this spot because of the other 3 people in the pot. I'd rather get their money now when I know they will put it in instead of waiting till the turn to watch them fold. If we were HU or 3 handed, well that would possibly be different.