poker as an investment: the math

[ryanj247]

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it says that my RoR at this moment in time is y%. but when we're looking at poker as an investment, we need to analyze it for a certain period of time, right? so how do i calculate the probability that i will win/lose $x in, say, 10,000 hands?

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i might be misunderstanding, but can't you just change $/hands into $/hour by figuring out how many hands/hour you can play and plugging it into your equations?

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sure, but i don't know what equations to use. lol

if my WR is 2BB/100 and my SD is 15BB/100, starting with 250BB what is the probability that i will have $0 after 10,000 hands?

[pig4bill]

You're going to make $4 per 100 hands? 7-11 sounds better.

A CD doesn't take any of your time. You can work at 7-11 AND have a CD.

[ryanj247]

the $1000 number is just something easy to work with. the stakes are irrelevant as far as the math is concerned. i'd like to compare using $x ($1000, $10K, $100K, etc) as a poker bankroll for a period of time rather than putting that same amount into an investment.

for example, suppose i was considering playing live poker for one year (say about 40K hands), and i had only $10K to worth with. what if i ran the numbers and determined that there was a 10% possibility of going broke on that bankroll in the game i needed to play to cover my monthly nut. there was also a 25% chance that i would end up the year breakeven or slightly worse. even considering the probabilities of making money for the year, i might decide that no, given my current tolerance for risk, i would prefer to put that $10K into an investment that had a lower probability of showing a negative return in the next year (and do something else with my time).

of course you could say "well you should move down so you don't go broke" or "if you only have $10K you should get a job" or whatever else. i agree with all of that. but there still ought to be a mathematical way to evaluate the hypothetical situation.

[Wake up CALL]

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but there still ought to be a mathematical way to evaluate the hypothetical situation.


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Not when you want to include such subjective devices as risk tolerance and being unwilling to drop down in stakes when necessary to avoid going bust. What you want cannot exist wit haccuracy, you might as well take a SWAG and you'll be as close as you need to be.