Flat calling here sucks, DUCY?

[badatmath]

Ok, now ICY. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[BoerfSt]

Its ok vs this villain..but not something I like to do.

[Landonfan]

Does villian know you shove AA/KK here? Most 25NLers just 4-bet those, so unless he's seen you do it before, I don't know how apt he is to believe it. I still like the play against a loose opponent though, just don't be surprised if JJ calls, maybe even TT if he's really loose.

Also, what's the play if villian is solid?

[crovax4444]

what happens if you have 140 BB stacks and same reads? How deep would you go before you'd 4-bet or call

Crovax

[monkeymaps]

I agree with OP villian in this hand is very LAG his 3 betting range is prob pretty wide esp given OP said he has a LAG image as well. AK isnt going to play well at all post flop given our position and villian so I dont realy like just calling. This is good if villian is a second level thinker you might even get called by a worse hand IMO.

[monkeymaps]

another ? assuming 100BB stacks does anyone ever 4 bet less than AI seems pointless not just go AI?

[Atlanta Andrew]

[ QUOTE ]
I decided to give this a try just now:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($19.30)
MP ($12.60)
Hero ($24.75)
Button ($33.20)
SB ($20.35)
BB ($37.45)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $0.90, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $24.75</font>, SB folds, BB calls $21.25.

Flop: ($50.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: ($50.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($50.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $50.50

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has As Ad (one pair, aces).
Hero has Kc Ac (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins $50.50. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand is significantly different than OP's because hero is in position. Be more inclined to call 3-bets with AK when you have position on villain, since you have more of a post-flop advantage.

-Andrew

[Triggerle]

[ QUOTE ]
what happens if you have 140 BB stacks and same reads? How deep would you go before you'd 4-bet or call

Crovax

[/ QUOTE ]

I, personally, cut it off at about 60-70bb although that could be adjusted on a case by case basis if I play very unusual villians. Folding this with 100bb stacks has become standard for me at the micros.

[ama0330]

yay variance

i hope you assigned him a 3bet range before you got all buckwild and crazy. fwiw i wouldnt do this because i am a nit and a coward.

[That Fish]

Assuming I did the math right.

Assume 3bets about half his normal raising range (10% here).
equity
Hand 0: 46.906% { 22+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 53.094% { AsKc }

He calls with top 3%
equity
Hand 0: 60.215% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.785% { AsKc }

So about 30% the time he's got a hand good enough to call the push.

70% of the time hero wins $5.35 for an EV of 5.35 x .7 = $3.68

When called hero wins $30.5 40% of the time = $12.2
When called here loses $30.5 60% of the time = $18.3
or a net EV of -$6.1 when called, which happens 30% of the time or - $1.83

Net EV = 3.68 - 1.83 = $1.85

When stack sizes are such that .3 x (.4s - .6s) = 3.68 it's neutral EV. So stacks &gt;$62 make this -EV. Or about 250BB

Hand ranges can change quite a bit before this approaches -EV land.

So how tight does he have to be to make this incorrect?
60/40 dog when called QQ+ AKo/AKs, include JJ and it's 62/38 so close enough for this estimate.

fold% x 5.35 = Call% x 6.1
but Call% = 1 - fold%.
-&gt; fold% = 6.1/11.45 or 53%

So he must then have a hand good enough to call 1/2 the time, or about top 5.3% of hands.

He needs to be 3bettting here with 88+, AJs+, KQs, AK, and calling the push with QQ+AKo, AKs for this to be neutral EV.

I'd assume he'd need a pfr of &gt;15 before this is good...