15/30 AK

[Fat Nicky]

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I think the debate about overcalls is secondary. I agree with the raise on the flop. But IMO, a major mistake was made on the turn by calling a single bet and not raising. On the turn, the pot is big (9 BB so far) and you've now got a nut flush draw in addition to the nut straight draw. You've got to protect this hand and try to drive opponents out. I'd have raised the turn. You'd create a difficult decision for both LMP and SB to CC 2 bets, given the pot odds and number of opponents. With BB's hesitation on the river, he may have folded a raise on the turn, too. You definitely don't want to give 3 opponents another draw on the river to beat you -- without paying a price.

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What exactly are we protecting? We have a draw, not a made hand. Raising not only makes others pay for their draws, it makes us pay for our own draw. It's also highly unlikely that we're gonna fold 3 players in a pot this big.

[SjPdX]

Isn't this a classic case of being on a draw that can lose even if you hit your hand? Plenty of bets to justify a call on the turn, but even so you could easily be drawing dead. Hitting the gutshot on the river just makes it worse. You've gone this far, so call the river. Expect to lose, be relieved if you win.

[Fat Nicky]

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Isn't this a classic case of being on a draw that can lose even if you hit your hand? Plenty of bets to justify a call on the turn, but even so you could easily be drawing dead. Hitting the gutshot on the river just makes it worse. You've gone this far, so call the river. Expect to lose, be relieved if you win.

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Based on your response, it doesn't look like you realize we have the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s on the board.

[SjPdX]

Yeah, you're right. Sorry 'bout that. I'd still just call the river and expect to be in second place.

[SackUp]

Raise. LMP already called 2 cold preflop, on the flop and overcalled on the turn. He either has a big diamond and is folding anyhow or he has Qx or Jx and thinks he still may be good. sb is a joker too who you have beat and will be doing the same.

BB should be crushed too. He looked for some protection on the flop and didn't get it. He may have the diamonds and donked the turn to not give a free card, but I'm willing to take that chance.

[SackUp]

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raise.

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Call

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Awesome analysis, guys.

I raise because I have a straight. It's an awesome hand, and the way the hand was played, I'm not too concerned about a flush.

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I call for over-calls, so there.

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with the size of the pot and the previous cc, I think that lp and sb are as likely to call 1 as they are 2.

[jason_t]

I do not understand why so many people that I have talked to about this hand suggest that they LMP and the SB are as likely to call one as they are to call two on the river. When I raise this river my hand range is significantly reduced and is going to look like AK to all but the most retarded of individuals.

[TripleH68]

Raise.

None of the play is consistent with a made flush, so the only debate here seems to be whether to go for overcalls. I say raise. Your opponents will be confused by your raise and confused players like to call with losing hands.

[Fat Nicky]

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with the size of the pot and the previous cc, I think that lp and sb are as likely to call 1 as they are 2.

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I don't see how you can think this. They cold-called 2 small bets previously on the flop, which could mean many things. If they cold-called to big bets on the turn, then i'd agree with you, but most somewhat competent players are folding something like top pair to 2 bets at the river on this scary board. They might even fold 2 pair.

Of course, they might call 2 bets cold with 1 pair or 2 pair, but to say they are as likely to call 2 than they are as 1 is a little crazy to me.

[Fat Nicky]

For arguments sake, lets say there was no flush draw on the board at the river. How much does that change the river decision between raising and calling?