NFL undefeated season prop

[Thremp]

Post Oak,

I can see your point. Though I don't agree with it.

[Post-Oak]

Their last 3 games:


Sun 12/16/07 NY Jets 1 5
Sun 12/23/07 Miami 0 6
Sun 12/29 AT NYG -7

Doesn't look like it will be a problem...

If they are undefeated, Brady and co. are gonna play until the game is over - meaning for 2-3 quarters [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Their last 3 games:


Sun 12/16/07 NY Jets 1 5
Sun 12/23/07 Miami 0 6
Sun 12/29 AT NYG -7

Doesn't look like it will be a problem...

If they are undefeated, Brady and co. are gonna play until the game is over - meaning for 2-3 quarters [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah standard square talk. Next tell me how a spot starter can't lose to the best pitcher in baseball on a far superior team unless he dies, has his arm explode, or falls off the planet.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
Post Oak,

I can see your point. Though I don't agree with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be betting a couple of those "Games of the Year" then.

It's tough to know just how good NE is only 6 games into the season, and those lines are clearly assuming they are every bit as great as they have looked (except for the Balt line?).

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Post Oak,

I can see your point. Though I don't agree with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be betting a couple of those "Games of the Year" then.

It's tough to know just how good NE is only 6 games into the season, and those lines are clearly assuming they are every bit as great as they have looked (except for the Balt line?).

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I'm not because it doesn't fit in with my other bets, but yes in an ideal world with no other considerations. I would be betting them.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah standard square talk. Next tell me how a spot starter can't lose to the best pitcher in baseball on a far superior team unless he dies, has his arm explode, or falls off the planet.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 13-0 team with an easy shot at 16-0 is not gonna bench all of their players for the entire game.

Also, if Miami is -16.5 at home, shouldn't they be over 3 touchdown dogs at NE? NYJ at NE would easily be a -20 type line right now also.

I mean don't blame me - I don't make the lines!

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
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Yeah standard square talk. Next tell me how a spot starter can't lose to the best pitcher in baseball on a far superior team unless he dies, has his arm explode, or falls off the planet.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 13-0 team with an easy shot at 16-0 is not gonna bench all of their players for the entire game.

Also, if Miami is -16.5 at home, shouldn't they be over 3 touchdown dogs at NE? NYJ at NE would easily be a -20 type line right now also.

I mean don't blame me - I don't make the lines!

[/ QUOTE ]

Points aren't linear and they will be benching almost all their key players for almost the entire game.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=251224026

Not exact same situation. But I'd be stunned if starters go for any length of time with HFA locked up. 2-3 quarters would be about 1-2 quarters more than I'd expect to see out of Randy/Brady/Maroney.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
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Yeah standard square talk. Next tell me how a spot starter can't lose to the best pitcher in baseball on a far superior team unless he dies, has his arm explode, or falls off the planet.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 13-0 team with an easy shot at 16-0 is not gonna bench all of their players for the entire game.

[/ QUOTE ]

A team with a locked up #1 seed will rest all their key players for 3-4 quarters. PHL did for 2 weeks and still made the SB and that was without TO.

Belicheat doesn't care about reg season records. Look at all the QBs who have gotten hurt this year already:
Losman
Leinart
Warner
Carr
Delhomme
Young
Smith
Chad
Kitna
Stanton
Jackson
Green, etc. Leaving Moss and Brady and Samuel in to get banged up - even if only missing 2 weeks, could cost them a game v Pitt or SDG or Indy or Jax or etc.

I'm shocked everyone forgets that NE was only up 10 in 4th v Cleve, at home, and Browns had the ball. This v a Browns team that had given up 34, 45, 26 to Oak, etc, and Brady only scored 3 TDs on them.

Wash, at Indy, PHL with a healthy Sheppard and Dawkins back [Iggle D given up 3 total offensive TDs in 18 of 20 quarters. Other 3 came in half where PHL up 35-7 early]
at Balt, Pitt, at 4-2 Giants who will likely be playing for division/home game/wild card when NWE has nothing to play for.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]

and they will be benching almost all their key players for almost the entire game.


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No. Teams don't start benching all of their key players in Week 14. Doesn't happen...

If they are undefeated, they will want to go for 16-0. If they are 13-0, Brady could be chasing some records himself.

They might bench a few key players in Week 17 for most of the game. Might. In Week 17.

Betting on this at -1600 because you are hoping for a "starters benched" type angle isn't a good idea.

Let's look at the available lines again, with conservative chances of winning:

These are readily available lines:

10/21 @ Miami -16.5 92%
11/4 @ Indi -3 60%
11/18 @ Buffalo -14 89%
12/3 @ Balt -7 73%
12/9 PITT -10 80%
12/29 @ NYG -7 73%

We'll estimate for the remaining games (again erring on the side of caution):

Sun 10/28/07 Washington -11 81%
Sun 11/25/07 Philadelphia -13 85%
Sun 12/16/07 NY Jets -17 92%
Sun 12/23/07 Miami -21.5 93%

Worst case scenario for the playoffs (using available lines from above):

Pitt -10 80%
Indy -6 69%

Superbowl

NFC -10 80%

We were conservative in our % chances to win given a spread. We were also conservative in estimating those lines which are not yet available (I only checked one site). We still come up with a 5.45% chance to go 19-0! So based on available lines, this is not a good futures bet.

If you want to pursue this "starters will be benched" angle, maybe you should just bet on their Week 17 game (-7 at NYG).

Thinking that Brady will play 1 quarter each game for the last 4 weeks (3 of which are home games, in front of home fans) is assinine. Thinking that anyone outside of Brady/Moss/healthy RB is gonna miss significant time for the last 3-4 weeks is even more ridiculous.

[NajdorfDefense]

at 14-0, if #1 seed is a lock, I will happily bet that major NWE players skip more than 1 Q of action.

edit: And Brady at least a half.