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#21
04-02-2007, 09:28 AM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would think that every single one of you come in third more often than first or any other place. True or not? In nine handed sit n gos with 50 30 20 splits. I'd guess the typical pro comes in first about 11%, second about 13% and third about 16%. Is that about right? [/ QUOTE ] No. It is like saying that a typical chess pro wins because he knows a lot of theory. Judging by their opening preparation Aronian or Morozevich know relatively little but they are still exremely successful as it can be seen in their Elo rating which is 2744 and 2741 respectively. [/ QUOTE ] That's a typical fallacy about players who chose offbeat openings. Aronian* and especially Morozevich know a lot, just not about mainstream openings. Try to take on Moro in the Chigorin or the Albin and you'll see what I am talking about. He is as much of a specialist in these openings than Svidler is in the Ruy Lopez or Kramnik is in the Petroff. About the initial question by David, I think it's just the normal distribution. You usually make the bubble with the lowest stack most often, therefore you finish third most often and so on. *Aronian is just not honest about his preparation. You can be sure that he is working 8 hours each day with Fritz or Rybka like everyone else. 
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#22
04-02-2007, 10:20 AM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
[ QUOTE ]
About the initial question by David, I think it's just the normal distribution. You usually make the bubble with the lowest stack most often, therefore you finish third most often and so on. [/ QUOTE ] ?
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#23
04-02-2007, 11:50 AM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
?
Imagine 9 players of similar strength. Your expected finish is 5th place (actually a little less according to your edge over the field). According to the normal distribution sometimes you finish 3rd, less often 2nd and less often 1st.  I mean it's no wonder you don't finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd the exact same amount of times.
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#24
04-02-2007, 12:17 PM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
There are 9 players. One of them must finish first, one of them finishes second, one finishes 3rd, one finishes fourth, one finishes fifth, one finishes sixth, one finishes seventh, one finishes eighth, one finishes 9th. This is a uniform distribution. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
If you all have the same skill, you are flipping a 9-sided coin. You should finish first 1/9 of the time.
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#26
04-02-2007, 03:47 PM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
i have never won 3rd in an SNG.
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#27
04-02-2007, 03:55 PM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
[ QUOTE ]
If that was the case, why do I have a gauss curve in my own stats with the biggest cluster around the bubble? Probably an indicator for an unequal skill distribution. [/ QUOTE ] lol. uhh... yeah. either a skill differencial OR uhh, luck differential... jeezus, why do i see a normal distribution graph on this thread - thats freaking hilarious to me i should show you guys the way to find out exactly where you will place in a tournament using Mohr's circle...
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#28
04-02-2007, 05:08 PM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post4644537
The third graph down shows his finish distribution for over 5000 $109 and $215 sng's. He had way more firsts than seconds or thirds.
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#30
04-02-2007, 06:42 PM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
[ QUOTE ]
If that was the case, why do I have a gauss curve in my own stats with the biggest cluster around the bubble? Probably an indicator for an unequal skill distribution. [/ QUOTE ] You have a gauss curve because you are folding a lot early, and playing in a style that will lead you to finish 3rd to 5th. To make up for it, somewhere, some dude (For example) is playing in a crazy style that will make him finish either first or last . Or, more intuitively, add up the finishes of your eight opponents and graph it. Your Gauss curve, upside down, will be the "hole" in this graph. So where does the normal distribution fit in, and why is it soooo darn popular? Consider this: Take your average performance. If you are an average player, flipping 9-sided coins, your average performance is likely to be fifth, right? Less likely, you got really lucky and your "average" is near first. If you graph the probability of your AVERAGE performance being in a spot, I believe the Binomial Theorem says this would be a normal distribution.
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