30/60 river decision: to raise or to call?

[StrictlyStrategy]

The Queens up part was a half-joke. It's like when people say "Aces up" and table 22 on an AAKJT board.

[StellarWind]

I routinely call these flop checkraises with about a million hands and let Villain guess what to do next. Usually they bet and I get to raise all my good hands at the increased bet size. There is no real remedy for them other than giving me a totally unacceptable number of free cards. I don't have any problem with your flop call unless there was some specific reason you should have forseen Villain's turn check.

You should have provided a read on BB. It's a typical cognitive error to treat this as a HU pot because you only have one opponent left when you start thinking. But you'll never understand the flop checkraise until you recognize that Villain was jamming the third player.

Many weaker LAGs are more into winning extra pots then gaining value. A likely explanation for the flop checkraise is he raised a small pair to isolate your overcards. Mission accomplished, he saw no reason to risk an OOP turn bet.

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Normally I'm grinding the 15/30, and most of the 30 regulars recognize me and realize I'm playing nittier than I do in 15. Been folding for the last 45 minutes and then pick up this hand.

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Take the river raise-fold off the table for now. It's not worth improving the play of every predictable player at the table by encouraging them to take shots at you.

I think the five is an important part of his range. I don't see how you can give 2-1 odds by raising unless he's a total spazz. But this is a situation where you need to have been there.

[Chipspin]

Thanks for your thoughtful responses. Glad to hear that there is some debate as to whether I should call or raise that damn river card.

I thought about it for about a 30 seconds before deciding to just call. And he flipped over 52s.

[reasonableplace]

I would be careful with an overpair and smooth calling his c/r to get an extra bet on the turn. A straight draw, set, and KJ are all in his range here, and you really don't him paying 1BB to see the river. Basically you are hoping to raise the turn if a brink falls... what happens if he 3 bets you (with a set, straight) your hand is an obv. over pair/ TPTK IMO.

Best to jam the flop, and take the lead. This will also make the river easier to play.

[Chipspin]

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what happens if he 3 bets you (with a set, straight) your hand is an obv. over pair/ TPTK IMO.

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I fold.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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Thanks for your thoughtful responses. Glad to hear that there is some debate as to whether I should call or raise that damn river card.

I thought about it for about a 30 seconds before deciding to just call. And he flipped over 52s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im too lazy to read through this thread so I dont know if someone hasnt already said this: Becuz the villain will never have Jx after taking this line is precisely why raising the river is incorrect. If he had Jx he would just continue betting the turn. Some arguments have been made for 3betting the flop and thats a fine line, but there is simply not enough information to conclude that waiting til the turn to raise is an inferior line. Both lines run very close in expectation which is why you can vary your play the most in this spot cuz it doesnt matter what you do. You played this hand well every street.

[Bill King]

i raise this river basically every time and fold to a 3.. he could easily be betting AJ etc for value

[blindside]

"I think that a lot of villains bet this river thinking that the 2nd 5 protects them from raises from hero"

I think if someone were to play thinking along these lines, they would fold to a raise seeing as how the 5 should be a scare card for them.