Are the idle bystanders the main beneficiaries of SNG bubble mistakes?

[finesseQ]

HOH3 also has an example about bubble play that shows that the other players in the hand gain at times like this.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not that sure, but I think there is a leak in your thinking:
If in your example it is correct for A to push with 99 IF ATo is in the calling-range of B, then of course you push.

If the calling range of player B make your push -$, you don't.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nah, you just misinterpretted his post.

He's saying that a situation can be +EV for you, but if your opponent makes a mistake then it actually costs you money. Here's a very basic example to illustrate it:

4 players, blinds 300/600, even stacks of 5k. You have 99 in the SB, and know your opponent will only call you with 66+,AT+. Pushing is +2.1%.

HOWEVER

when your opponent actually calls you with AT, your EV in the tournament is 21.3%. But you're a favorite in the hand, so it's not like your money goes to him. In fact, his EV is only 17% at the time the money goes in the pot. So now we have 11.7% that gets distributed among the rest of the table.

That's what OP is talking about here...if the BB knew what you held and still called, he'd be making a huge mistake, but you don't gain. The other players do. This is the basis of SuitedSixes's "lazy aggro" bubble strategy.

Okay now I know somebody's going to jump in here and say "omg that's being results-oriented!" And you're right, but that's also what OP is discussing. The reason my above scenario is a +EV push is because your opponent doesn't have a callable hand very often. If somehow you knew your opponent had AT and would call though, you'd be better served folding (24% vs 21%).

People here often recommend that you pass on a marginally +EV push because there will be a better one later. There's correct thinking there, but the fact is that you rarely are faced with a slightly +EV situation that will be soon followed by a highly +EV situation. So that just doesn't come up a lot. The REAL reason to pass on slightly +EV situations is that your opponents will likely make a horrible play at some point in the future, dumping their EV to the other players sitting out.