God I hate this spot. 50nl 6 max

[Montezuma21]

[ QUOTE ]
At $50NL when you're raised on the flop, you're almost never ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]


que? what does this actually mean? you mean in general, in this hand, with TPTK, what?

to OP: with your image, and the fact that your flop lead screams weakness, you absolutely must push TPTK here. i wouldn't wait until the turn because:

1. you might get bluffed off a by a worse hand
2. you're giving villain free cards of he is on a draw
3. most importantly, you might get a call on the flop from AQ and AJ. if a scare card falls, you're losing a lot of value.

and to those who are saying fold: wtf?

[AliasMrJones]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At $50NL when you're raised on the flop, you're almost never ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]


que? what does this actually mean? you mean in general, in this hand, with TPTK, what?

to OP: with your image, and the fact that your flop lead screams weakness, you absolutely must push TPTK here. i wouldn't wait until the turn because:

1. you might get bluffed off a by a worse hand
2. you're giving villain free cards of he is on a draw
3. most importantly, you might get a call on the flop from AQ and AJ. if a scare card falls, you're losing a lot of value.

and to those who are saying fold: wtf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lo siento, I should have said when you're raised on the flop with TP...

You guys that think villain has AQ/AJ here are kidding yourself. Look at his VPIP -- he doesn't call raises with AQ/AJ. When nits make moves like this it isn't because of your image, it's because they have you beat.

[Montezuma21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At $50NL when you're raised on the flop, you're almost never ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]


que? what does this actually mean? you mean in general, in this hand, with TPTK, what?

to OP: with your image, and the fact that your flop lead screams weakness, you absolutely must push TPTK here. i wouldn't wait until the turn because:

1. you might get bluffed off a by a worse hand
2. you're giving villain free cards of he is on a draw
3. most importantly, you might get a call on the flop from AQ and AJ. if a scare card falls, you're losing a lot of value.

and to those who are saying fold: wtf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lo siento, I should have said when you're raised on the flop with TP...

You guys that think villain has AQ/AJ here are kidding yourself. Look at his VPIP -- he doesn't call raises with AQ/AJ. When nits make moves like this it isn't because of your image, it's because they have you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

mmmmh. your second point is certainly a good one (i'm not sure of the wisdom of ALWAYS folding TP to a flop raise-i hope that's not what you meant). given villain's stats and the fact that he's in position, i think he'd flat call KQhh here.

same goes for AQ (probably-weak flop lead makes it more difficult).

so that leaves bottom and middle set and AK as his most likely range, which would (dare i say it) make this a fold.

on a side note:
to gumpzilla:i don't know if they show the losing hand onscreen on prima. if not then we can assume that Pokey's description of OP's image is correct, since most villains are unlikely to open the HH but rather assume: ZOMG didn't that guy just lose 3 buyings. must be a lagtard.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

to gumpzilla:i don't know if they show the losing hand onscreen on prima. if not then we can assume that Pokey's description of OP's image is correct, since most villains are unlikely to open the HH but rather assume: ZOMG didn't that guy just lose 3 buyings. must be a lagtard.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think making generalizations that apply to the average player and then applying them to somebody who clearly isn't average - those stats given are certainly a lot nittier than would be typical - is not the best of plans.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
I've just lost 3 buyins in 15 hands at this table(!), one set over set, top two v bottom set and KK v AK all in pf. So rigged [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]. And I'm playing 35/25.




[/ QUOTE ]

you are playing like a crazy man - and the hands you are shoving are getting worse and worse.

If this isn't a top spot to recoup a stacks worth of chips I don't know what is.

He probably puts you on QQ or similar - I back TPTK all the way here with my table image being what it is.

being raised of the flop does NOT mean your TPTK is beat.

Get your chips in and bust his AQ. he sometimes has a set - sometimes has A5s or some 2 pair hand - but you are often way ahead here - often enough to make getting allin here big time +EV in the long run.

[Montezuma21]

[ QUOTE ]

Get your chips in and bust his AQ. he sometimes has a set - sometimes has A5s or some 2 pair hand - but you are often way ahead here - often enough to make getting allin here big time +EV in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think a villain with those stats ever calls A5s in the CO here.

[Debaser]

[ QUOTE ]
Kurt and Pokey are right on. Push ...or CR-AI Turn if you really believe villain will bet again.

What did the BB do BTW fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah the BB folded, should have left that in.

Sorry for the bump, I'm still not totally sure what I'd do again in the same spot.

Anyway, I called the raise to crai on the turn. Maybe I could have folded if something like J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fell but I was tilting so hard I seriously doubt it [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Turn was A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I check, he pushes, I instacall, river 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], he shows 22, SHIPPPPPPPP [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

About the small flop bet, if I'm going to go with the hand anyway don't I want him to see me as weak? Obviously it's puts me in a sick spot if I'm considering folding but to those saying get it all in is the small bet not better than potting it?
Or am I thinking about this all wrong? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Montezuma21]

[ QUOTE ]

About the small flop bet, if I'm going to go with the hand anyway don't I want him to see me as weak? Obviously it's puts me in a sick spot if I'm considering folding but to those saying get it all in is the small bet not better than potting it?
Or am I thinking about this all wrong? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

no, that makes perfect sense (or rather it WOULD against the right opponent-this is not the right opponent), unless you knew he was going to raise regardless of your bet size, and that therefore you could trap more money by PSBing (because the PSR would be bigger). It's just a very very bad idea in general unless you know your villain very well indeed because it puts you in many many more marginal situations (see the post in the sticky "difficult decisions, bad designs")

If i've got a read that someone will ALWAYS raise weak leads then of course i'll weak-lead/3bet or weak-lead/call with hands that i think are ahead of his raising range; just like i'll C-C TP 3 streets if i know the guy will bet and i'm way ahead of his range.

just my 2c, i'm sure other posters in this thread have much more valuable input to offer

[xorthio]

just did some pokerstove calc against some range he could have here, don't you guys think a push here would fold out AQo, he is a nit remember. if thats true a push is not the right play here i think, cr turn would be better then.

9,800 games 0.005 secs 3,960,000 games/sec

Board: Ah 5c 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.497% 33.93% 15.57% 6718 3082.50 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 50.503% 34.93% 15.57% 6917 3082.50 { 55, 22, AQs+, Ad5d, AQo+ }

[BobAllinSki]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys that think villain has AQ/AJ here are kidding yourself. Look at his VPIP -- he doesn't call raises with AQ/AJ. When nits make moves like this it isn't because of your image, it's because they have you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a hell of a lot different than "At $50NL when you're raised on the flop, you're almost never ahead." but I dissagree that nits dont adapt to your raising ranges and adjust, and 15/9 isnt actually that nitty, AQ or a bluff are both a reasonable part of villains range against a 35/25

for what its worth pokeys advice is spot on.