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#22
09-29-2007, 02:01 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
Ok I'll take a shot at what I believe Thremp is trying to get accross.
For example - ATL, DET, SF, and NYG are all balancing between true lines of +2.5-3 (that is according to Pinny). If you make the tease when the lines are at 2.5 but then closer to gametime the line "sharpens" to the even 3 points then you have missed out on a lot of EV. I would gather that the wongs are still profitable in the situation above but betting on straight outcomes would be even more +EV to be had. 
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#23
09-29-2007, 05:14 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
My point was that by not waiting for the line to sharpen you increase you variance and do not effect EV in the LONG TERM.
Yes, sometimes it'll move against you and you'll take an EV hit. Other times, the line will move in your favor. Think long term and not short term and we won't have to see any more arguments about when the best time is to place a teaser bet. Just get the bet down and move on. Variance don't hurt much.
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#24
09-29-2007, 06:00 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
[ QUOTE ]
My point was that by not waiting for the line to sharpen you increase you variance and do not effect EV in the LONG TERM. Yes, sometimes it'll move against you and you'll take an EV hit. Other times, the line will move in your favor. Think long term and not short term and we won't have to see any more arguments about when the best time is to place a teaser bet. Just get the bet down and move on. Variance don't hurt much. [/ QUOTE ] You guys just don't understand. It's not variance, it's poor strategy. If you aren't betting the sharp line you might end up betting on a game that isn't even wongable. If you take a game at -7.5 and then it moves to -6.5, that is a terrible play. Assuming that an equal amount of time the line stays the same, goes in your favor, or goes against you, you are getting the worst of it. People say that they can predict the line moves (which they probably can't) but if you can than you should be betting on those lines against the spread and not looking to wong them. I don't wait until kickoff like Thremp does (mostly because I'm not usually around a computer Sunday morning) Saturday nights seem to be a decent time to do wongs since most major line movement has already occurred.
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#26
09-29-2007, 08:50 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
paper,
Yeah, I don't fault anyone for putting them in on the weekend as most movement occurs. I just do it Sunday morning since I wake up early anyway (or sometimes do). But to bet wong teasers on openers would be stupid. hoqua, You are wrong... again. Continue just to leach arbs and not spread misinformation (albeit only once every few months).
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#27
09-30-2007, 01:56 AM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
To answer your bottom question I would want -7 -115 or +3 -125. These two lines are roughly equivalent to -7.5 even and +2.5 even which is the ending limit of the wong range. Plus you get the half point even if it is a worthless 9 (the 1 isn't completely awful though).
I'd also add the Giants to your list (TB is -120 so I'd wait and see if they get more sharp action tomorrow)
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