Do you win at 6/12 at the Bay 101?

[Analyst]

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IMHO, start working on your game to figure out all the things your doing wrong by spending time in the strategy forums on 2+2 (which i know you already do - just pointing out its part of the plan), watching videos on sites like Deuces Cracked (they do single table limit videos, perfect for your situation), and lasty reading and re-reading Small Stakes Hold'em, How Good is your Limit Hold'em, and Winning in Tough Hold'em Games (this book is like loaded dynamite though, make sure you know how to adjust the strategy accordingly to the table texture found in the 6/12 game). My advice would be to take a month off of playing, only focus on learning and reading for 30 days - then return. Self Improvement!

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Agreed w/TT on all points. Though it has been a while since I played 6/12 at Bay101, if you understand SSH fairly well then that should be enough to have an edge on the game. Honestly, SSH is enough to have an edge on the 20/40 games.

TT, do you play at Bay101?

[threeducks]

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When I go to Vegas I win at the 4/8 games and I win at the 4/8 kill game at Cache Creek.

The 3/6 games in the bay are way too loose for me.

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I don't believe you, let me explain why. Unless you have a few thousand hours under your belt you have no idea if your wining in Vegas 4/8 games, or losing in the 6/12 Bay 101 games (and even then your not even close to showing a statistical mean yet, but your getting closer to the truth by having a minimum of that many hours under your belt). Mason Malmuth's Gambling Theory & Other Topics discusses the concepts behind winrate, bankroll management, risk of ruin, statistical standard deviation, and how to determine if your a "winning player".

When I first started here on 2+2 many people assumed that their win rate would converge around 30k-40k hands. Now that there are players on this forum who have logged millions of hands we see that there are still staticstical fluctuations within ranges far greater than even 500,000 hands! Assuming your getting 40 hands/hour live thats the equivalent of 12,500 hours logged in a B&M card room! No wonder why online players are usually better than live-only players, they see so many more situations and develop a card-sense that is intuitive quicker than a live player ever could.

In short - hang tight. It sounds like your using weighted results to determine if your a winning player or not, this is a classic example of the gamblers fallacy. Of course I still recommend you take a month off as previously discussed to work on your game, but at least no you know that your probably misrepresenting the probability that your a winning player. On the bright side you have the worlds greatest poker resource - 2+2 to help make you a better player!

PS: Have you thought of hiring a coach? Personally I'd use video coaching first to build up your roll before hiring a live coach but I think that's a viable option when the time is right.

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Well, the number of hours at 4/8 in Vegas is not that many. Just I have won each visit. Okay, not enough hours.

Well TT, It takes a long time to tell if you are a winning or losing player - humm, something to think about. I have 375 hours at the Bay 101 6/12 and at 35 hands per hour that is 13k hands. Statking says I am most likely a losing player at the Bay 101 at 6/12. I need more hours. My gut tells me that I am not going to make it.

I will take a long break and see if that helps. A coach would help for sure but I do not think that I am ready just yet. It is not the cost of the coach that is the issue. I post my hands on 3 forums for discussion. Sometimes I play them right and sometimes I play them wrong. I have tighten up my game quite a bit lately. I asked Ed Miller for advice and he gave me a good 3/6 strategy to work on. I have viewed videos from Ed Miller, Barry Tanenbaum and other pros. Studied all the best books.

I am either very unlucky, dumb (BS GPA 3.74/4.0) or not cut out for hold'em - most likely.

I wanted to find out if someone is winning and if so then it must be me. I am doing something wrong and it might just be that I quit when I am losing and don't quit when I am ahead (bankroll management).

BTW - 22k hands online I was winning 1.1bb/100 at 0.25/0.50 limit hold'em - so it is possible to win for a short run at least.

Thanks

[*TT*]

375 hours is not enough to determine if your a losing player in this game, nor is it enough to determine if your a winning player. I think your challenge could be in learning to adjust to table texture, the online games you will see in most videos are shorthanded and tough compared to the 6/12 games you will find at Bay 101. That doesn't mean the learning tools your using are bad, its very common for a player to think A+B=C when in reality its A+B=C usually, but if xyz happens and PDQ player is on the left then A+B=D. The key is learning to adjust to table textures and learning when to deviate from "standard" strategy. I think thats one of the more common errors we see here, and after learning what your resources are I think thats a decent guess (I might be wrong in your case, its just a judgment call based on what little information has been disclosed so far).

Here is a thought. Have you hunted down any good players who play at Bay 101 yet to spend time with after sessions to discuss hands? Then there are the A class players at Bay 101 such as J A Sucker and Tommy Angelo, if you can negotiate a decent deal (Tommy would be too expensive I assume) maybe they will take you on as a student?

[Torello]

I've played a few more hours than you in the B101 6/12, and it's definitely tough to beat. The players aren't good of course, but overall much better than low limit players at other casinos, and the rake structure is brutal. Not beating the 6/12 longterm (I'm about even) despite knowing that I'm a decent player has been very frustrating to me.

On the other hand I think you're probably not beating the game if you're losing that much at it.

Try the 5-200. The blind/rake structure is even worse than the 6/12, but the players just as bad or worse, and the spread limit magnifies their mistakes. If you're super patient you can make money there by doing nothing but waiting for top pairs preflop or flopping monsters after limping.

I do little more than that and I'm way up in the game.

[threeducks]

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I've played a few more hours than you in the B101 6/12, and it's definitely tough to beat. The players aren't good of course, but overall much better than low limit players at other casinos, and the rake structure is brutal. Not beating the 6/12 longterm (I'm about even) despite knowing that I'm a decent player has been very frustrating to me.

On the other hand I think you're probably not beating the game if you're losing that much at it.

Try the 5-200. The blind/rake structure is even worse than the 6/12, but the players just as bad or worse, and the spread limit magnifies their mistakes. If you're super patient you can make money there by doing nothing but waiting for top pairs preflop or flopping monsters after limping.

I do little more than that and I'm way up in the game.

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Thanks, I'm losing $-11/hr not the $140/hr stdev just to make that clear. But, still losing.

Most of the players are not good at all. I see them playing hands that SSH says to fold all the time and they win with them. But, I think this has to be short term. Since I can not see how you can win with hands like 95s, K2o, J3s, 98o, Q4o, A6o long term.

It is good to know that someone is winning and the Bay 101 is not getting all the money.

[threeducks]

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375 hours is not enough to determine if your a losing player in this game, nor is it enough to determine if your a winning player. I think your challenge could be in learning to adjust to table texture, the online games you will see in most videos are shorthanded and tough compared to the 6/12 games you will find at Bay 101. That doesn't mean the learning tools your using are bad, its very common for a player to think A+B=C when in reality its A+B=C usually, but if xyz happens and PDQ player is on the left then A+B=D. The key is learning to adjust to table textures and learning when to deviate from "standard" strategy. I think thats one of the more common errors we see here, and after learning what your resources are I think thats a decent guess (I might be wrong in your case, its just a judgment call based on what little information has been disclosed so far).

Here is a thought. Have you hunted down any good players who play at Bay 101 yet to spend time with after sessions to discuss hands? Then there are the A class players at Bay 101 such as J A Sucker and Tommy Angelo, if you can negotiate a decent deal (Tommy would be too expensive I assume) maybe they will take you on as a student?

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Thanks TT - one issue is lack of feedback as you pointed out. Locating a good player and then having that player help you either for pay or out of the goodness of his heart is not at all easy. I would love to discuss the game with people that are better than I am - there are a bunch - to really find out where my leaks are and how to plug them. I post hands and I get good feedback on that hand but over all strategy I take from books and from my own experience. My problem is my experience is not a winning strategy. I think that the books are great to a point but as you said you have to be able to implement the strategy at the table depending on the players and their actions.

I read SSH 2 times and other books by Sklansky. I have about 25 books on hold'em. Some are not very good but some are very good.

I have been lurking around 2+2 a few years reading posts and making a few myself.

I have gotten a lot of information on this post, which I can now digest. Maybe I can come up with a plan of action. One possibility is to just quit.

But, since some player do actually win there might be hope after all.

[*TT*]

The books to read for that game are Small Stakes Hold'em (reading it 2x isn't enough mate, shoot for 30! Funny thing is I am not kidding!) and How Good is your Limit Hold'em. There are also some fantastic nuggets in Winning in Tough Hold'em Games but as I said before you have to learn how to adjust first or the advice in that book can be dangerous to your game, HGIYLHE will help you see the adjustments so read that book first, wash, rinse, repeat.

Next, as I kind of alluded to before the B&M forum isn't exactly filled with expert strategists. Most of those guys don't visit this forum because it's considered a bit fluffy at times (even though its jam packed with fantastic topics about card room rules and policy), so its best to take your hunt for a "partner in crime" to the Small Stakes Limit strat forum. Put up a good post that shows your willingness to learn with someone from the forum who happens to play at Bay 101, I'm sure you will get a response!

xing my fingers for you, your on the right track!

[Cactus Jack]

You wouldn't happen to be "Alameda Mike" would you?

[threeducks]

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You wouldn't happen to be "Alameda Mike" would you?

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Hey, what's up! Yes I am. How did you make that connection? I used threeducks as a log on here from a long time ago May 2003 and kept it - at pokershool.com I was DeucesRwild in April 2003. On ITH I post as AlamedaMike since my name is Mike, duh, and I live in Alameda, no imagination. I see you use the same log on as ITH. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I do not post on 2+2 that much.

[threeducks]

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The books to read for that game are Small Stakes Hold'em (reading it 2x isn't enough mate, shoot for 30! Funny thing is I am not kidding!) and How Good is your Limit Hold'em. There are also some fantastic nuggets in Winning in Tough Hold'em Games but as I said before you have to learn how to adjust first or the advice in that book can be dangerous to your game, HGIYLHE will help you see the adjustments so read that book first, wash, rinse, repeat.

Next, as I kind of alluded to before the B&M forum isn't exactly filled with expert strategists. Most of those guys don't visit this forum because it's considered a bit fluffy at times (even though its jam packed with fantastic topics about card room rules and policy), so its best to take your hunt for a "partner in crime" to the Small Stakes Limit strat forum. Put up a good post that shows your willingness to learn with someone from the forum who happens to play at Bay 101, I'm sure you will get a response!

xing my fingers for you, your on the right track!

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Well, I have time to re-read it some more I guess - I might make it about 5 more times before I want to play again. I like HGIYLHE and I have ordered #2 - wait listed. My score is decent on many hands. 80-94 range.

Knowledge of the right play is high, ability to make the right play is lower.

I will spend some time in the small stakes limit hold'em - thanks