I suck w/ AQ in 3b pots

[Dire]

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always cbet a pf 3bet...(at least most of the time)...

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Nope. I love TAGs like you, you call their 3bet with ATC preflop and shove if you flop 4 outs or better. Easy $$$.

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You 3-bet to 12BB. Pot of ~25BB. C-BET for about 15BB. 27BB invested. If caller is shoving anytime he hits anything and folding otherwise, then it's actually easy money for the 3-bettor. The caller misses the flop completely about 60% of the time, and the 40% of the time he shoves - villain is the one with a generally easy decision - only having to call the extra 73BB a fraction of the time to show a healthy overall profit.

I agree cbetting 100% of flops is exploitable - but not nearly as easily/profitably as you described.

[Alobar]

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imo they call here with spades... AJ maybe A9..

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why would he raise AJ or A9 tho? And how likely are spades given the ace is on the board?

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he probably isn't folding any combo draw

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what combo draw is he holding? JTss makes up enough of his range, that we are excited to shove here?

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Kinda like his line with AJ, A9. The raise is small enough that he could get value out of a lot of hero's range

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ok, but even so, how likely are AJ or A9? Both from a combination standpoint give 2 of the aces are out, and also from a he called our 3 bet standpoint. And if AJ A9 are likely, so is AT. And even if he is playing those hands that way, does it make up enough of his range for the shove (hes gotta call the shove with AJ or A9 as well too) to be +EV? (and not only be +EV, but a higher EV than a different line)

[early325]

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imo they call here with spades... AJ maybe A9..

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why would he raise AJ or A9 tho? And how likely are spades given the ace is on the board?

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he probably isn't folding any combo draw

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what combo draw is he holding? JTss makes up enough of his range, that we are excited to shove here?

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Kinda like his line with AJ, A9. The raise is small enough that he could get value out of a lot of hero's range. Also the combo draw comment is a little silly, that's a tiny tiny fraction of his range.

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i think QJss, QKss, JTss, KJss, 9Tss are in his range, we 3bet PF but it wasn't massive.

[Xanta]

early, those hands fold some % of the time and bet the flop with the fd some % of the time, both of which are pretty healthy percentages. It makes that part of his range pretty small imo. It seems a little odd that he wouldn't semibluff the flop but he's happily semibluff-raising the turn when he picks up 4 more outs?

Alobar, I wasn't defending the turn shove, I just think that discounting AJ,A9 from his range here is incorrect.

[Alobar]

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imo they call here with spades... AJ maybe A9..

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why would he raise AJ or A9 tho? And how likely are spades given the ace is on the board?

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he probably isn't folding any combo draw

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what combo draw is he holding? JTss makes up enough of his range, that we are excited to shove here?

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Kinda like his line with AJ, A9. The raise is small enough that he could get value out of a lot of hero's range. Also the combo draw comment is a little silly, that's a tiny tiny fraction of his range.

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i think QJss, QKss, JTss, KJss, 9Tss are in his range, we 3bet PF but it wasn't massive.

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Thats only 5 combos, there are more than that many combos of TT and 77. And lets not forget that those combo draws also have 30% equity against us. Even if you have him calling with AJ and A9, we have less than 50% equity....so hes gotta call this shove with like JJ before its a good play

[Donkey-Milker]

this hand just mkaes me go "arrrggghhh"

Alobar has made me less inclined to shove but also less confident that we have the best hand.

if we just call here.. i assume we check the river to him.

if the river blanks.. is this a c/c? i couldn't c/f on a blank river here for a 2/3 PSB here which is what it will be if he shoves..

what is the right way to go then?

[early325]

even if you think his calling range is A9+, 22/77/TT and sets we have 42% equity..and that's assuming he has those parts of his range equally, which is obv not the case..plus the times he folds draws/bluffs, it's pretty obvious that shoving is +EV

[Alobar]

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even if you think his calling range is A9+, 22/77/TT and sets we have 42% equity..and that's assuming he has those parts of his range equally, which is obv not the case..plus the times he folds draws/bluffs, it's pretty obvious that shoving is +EV

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I can't see how it is. He's never folding his draws, hes getting like 3.5:1 on his money. What he is doing is folding all his bluffs (and even some of his non bluffs....im not calling A9 there, even getting 3.5:1), which leaves his calling range well ahead of us. So unless he decides to start calling with JJ or 99 or whatever, its -EV

[early325]

your saying that if he calls, we'll have the worst hand more often than not (very debatable but not what i'm talking about) -- i'm saying it's +EV because i think he's bluffing/has worse often enough to make a shove profitable, rather than having better..

if you'd like to discuss a better way to extract money from bluffs (call, c/c river) then do it, but shoving here is nowhere close to -EV imo

[Alobar]

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your saying that if he calls, we'll have the worst hand more often than not (very debatable but not what i'm talking about) -- i'm saying it's +EV because i think he's bluffing/has worse often enough to make a shove profitable, rather than having better..

if you'd like to discuss a better way to extract money from bluffs (call, c/c river) then do it, but shoving here is nowhere close to -EV imo

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ok, you're right. Shoving is still going to be a profitable play (assuming he is raising here often enough as a blufff or on a draw). Im looking at it wrong and confusing it in my head with not shoving being a more profitable play. But that doesn't make shoving -EV.