Tricky turn play in 3bet pot

[Janis N.]

[ QUOTE ]
17/12, he is on the cutoff, so he's still opening the top 30%.

[/ QUOTE ]No, I don't think so.

He's probably opening around 19% on the CO. KJo is ~44% against that range and we're OOP and we're often dominated by his calling range so facing negative implied odds.

[freeucm]

Ug why 3 bet with KJ? Thats the probelm. You get yourself in these spots all the time where you have one pot left or get 2 to 1 to call and even though your behind you still call? Its why the chips keep going around and around and swings. I mean you have to put him on at least AJ qq+ on flop call..Then if he does have 1010/99..please just check the turn and guess.

So since you like these 2 to 1 or i only have a pot sized bet love just get it in. Hes not gonna call with 1010 99, and if he does have QQ hes not folding.Then you can at least say i knew he had 99 when he turns it over...

FWIW since ur so concerned about pot size now why not throw out a 1/3 bet on turn and see what happens?

[Janis N.]

[ QUOTE ]
Its why the chips keep going around and around and swongs.

[/ QUOTE ]yeah the swongs they are one thing right?

[Nick Royale]

Shove turn. Preflop is pretty bad.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
17/12, he is on the cutoff, so he's still opening the top 30%.

[/ QUOTE ]No, I don't think so.

He's probably opening around 19% on the CO. KJo is ~44% against that range and we're OOP and we're often dominated by his calling range so facing negative implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, a 17/12 doesn't steal with 30% of his hands from co. He's likely stealing something like 20% from co and maybe 25-27 from btn. KJo has 41% equity vs the 20% stealing range I gave him (obv just an approximation):

22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,A8o+,KJo+

[Renton]

well, ok, i'll agree that my original claim of 30% is a little much

HOWEVER

a decent 17/12 player is still gonna have an attempt to steal stat of around 30%, which means that his cutoff/button AVERAGE is 30%, and since most people raise the button more than co, i think we can agree on a 35/25 spread. 25%, i exaggerated by 5.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
well, ok, i'll agree that my original claim of 30% is a little much

HOWEVER

a decent 17/12 player is still gonna have an attempt to steal stat of around 30%, which means that his cutoff/button AVERAGE is 30%, and since most people raise the button more than co, i think we can agree on a 35/25 spread. 25%, i exaggerated by 5.

[/ QUOTE ]
An average 17/12 at 400nl doesn't steal more than 25%. At least not where I play. That's why he's 17/12.

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
KJo has 41% equity vs the 20% stealing range I gave him (obv just an approximation):

22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,A8o+,KJo+

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see what KJo's equity vs villains opening range has to do with anything tbh.

[KvGalen]

yeah its about how KJo does against his calling range, id wait for a suited connector or something to 3bet him, and JJ+ obv., KJo really really sucks here. Sounds weak but as played im probably check/calling the flop and checkfolding the turn vs this kind of player.

[Janis N.]

If we are behind his range OOP then we're bluffing. Maybe this isn't the best hand for bluffing and another hand that's also behind his range but is less likely to be dominated would be better?