Marginal Spot with Pair+Draw... Gamble???

[ADK]

im folding this preflop.. and i think calling here is ugly too, im either shoving or folding.

[Skleice]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually fold this PF

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Suited connectors relate to small pocket pairs. They are good to get in cheap and see if you hit and get out unscaved if you wiff. This hand is fine to play in position cheaply, or to raise in position for deception, but not to call a raise of this size when you will be first of 5 players to act. You've put yourself in this marginal situation by calling pf.

[fees]

if ur a bbv poster u obv gamboo, otherwise foldaments

[Jouster777]

If we push assume MP and CO fold and if we call one of them comes along 40% of the time with a hand like KQ. I’ll calculate EV when we just call as if SB always gets all in on the turn (many other scenarios are possible but this is a likely one and one that is about “average” in terms of EV for the different scenarios). Under this assumption when we call we are paying $32 to win $75/$107/$139 with 1/2/3 villains. If we push we are putting in the same amount when only SB calls and we are putting in $62 to win $105 when we push and BTN comes along.

EVpush = .25[.24(105)-.76(62)]+.75[.41(75)-.59(32)]
= $3.35

EVcall = .4[.25(.42(107)-.58(32))+.75(.3(139)-.7(32))]+.6[.25(.41(75)-.59(32))+.75(.33(107)-.67(32))]
= $16.40
(If MP and CO never call if we call then this goes down to $13.40)

Pokerstove %’s given below for the different scenarios
BTN is given a top 15% range minus typical 3-bet hands for his PF action
SB assigned Kc6c c/w his actions and loose read. While he has a wider range this is simpler and numbers don’t change all that much if we give him almost any other made hand with the exception of a set. If he has a set then our EV goes down but the relative difference between calling and pushing is not going to be dramatically affected. Sometimes BTN will push, this also will reduce the EV’s calculated above but again the difference between calling and pushing is not going to be dramatically affected.

Pokerstove at this point against these 2:

Board: 9d Ks 6s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.362% 15.25% 00.11% 7712 56.50 { JJ-99, 66, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, As8s, As7s, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, KTo+ }
Hand 1: 47.250% 47.14% 00.11% 23839 54.50 { Kc6c }
Hand 2: 37.387% 37.38% 00.00% 18904 2.00 { 9s7s }


BTN calls if we call with the following range
Board: 9d Ks 6s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.236% 22.07% 00.16% 4385 32.50 { 99, 66, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, As8s, As7s, K9s+, QsJs, QsTs, KQo }
Hand 1: 44.294% 44.14% 00.15% 8769 30.50 { Kc6c }
Hand 2: 33.469% 33.46% 00.01% 6647 2.00 { 9s7s }


BTN calls if we push with the following range
Board: 9d Ks 6s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.025% 48.88% 00.14% 2207 6.50 { 99, 66, K9s, QsJs, QsTs }
Hand 1: 26.944% 26.80% 00.14% 1210 6.50 { Kc6c }
Hand 2: 24.031% 24.03% 00.00% 1085 0.00 { 9s7s }

BTN is folding ~25% of the time if we call and ~75% of the time if we push (eyeballing it). Assume SB is never folding.

If checker comes along:
Hand 0: 24.453% 23.56% 00.89% 21642 816.00 { 99, 66, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, As8s, As7s, K9s+, QsJs, QsTs, KQo }
Hand 1: 37.007% 36.88% 00.12% 33875 112.00 { Kc6c }
Hand 2: 30.523% 30.51% 00.02% 28016 16.00 { 9s7s }
Hand 3: 08.017% 07.02% 00.99% 6451 912.00 { KQs, KQo }

Checker comes along but BTN folds:
Board: 9d Ks 6s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 11.148% 10.93% 00.22% 592 12.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 46.844% 46.62% 00.22% 2526 12.00 { Kc6c }
Hand 2: 42.008% 42.01% 00.00% 2276 0.00 { 9s7s }


If we are HU with SB then:
Board: 9d Ks 6s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.586% 58.59% 00.00% 580 0.00 { Kc6c }
Hand 1: 41.414% 41.41% 00.00% 410 0.00 { 9s7s }

EV call is overestimated a bit by assuming SB never folds to a push and by assuming a limper always pays $18 to see a river card but these don't come close to making up the difference in calculated #'s. Did anyone get this far down?....I doubt it...oh well, I really do these calcualations for my own understanding and I just put them post them cuz I have them. Biggest assumption here: I can multiply.

[ama0330]

I fold this, you're probably sharing outs seeing as the pot is 3way, you have no FE, your draw is actually very weak, and you are pretty obviously behind. Easy fold.

[Jouster777]

My discussion above focused only on the relative merits of call vs. push. Fold is another matter. I still think we are EV+ here playing on but it all depends on the ranges we give to villains.

There's a lot of dead money in there even with a weak draw and the main villain (SB) is short making the dead money all that more important. What ranges are you assigning to BTN and SB to make you fold?

[Freelancer]

I fold this, but I also bet the flop...

Also I don't really mind the preflop call that much, a suited one gapper plays nicely in a big multiway pot.

I also would have bet the pot and fold due to higher flush draw or set possibilities and little FE. If you would have asked me a week ago I would probably shove [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] , had a bad experience with a OESFD against a flopped full house. Combo draws are great, but now I evaluate the situation more. Also at 25NL+ people still go broke with TPTK but less often.