Big fold or push? Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite Hand

[Valhalla]

Must be the luckiest "fish" ever.
http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/play...a=r&n=2157
http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/play...a=s&n=2157

How much of his goofy moves are actually buiding a crazy image and/or just playing his opponent. Because you had shown strong holdings and he did this in a practically empty pot I'd say he had a set. Even though he didn't get called he obviously managed to mess with your head.

[NYWalker]

First of all, from his plays, I don't think he's a thinking player. He's more like a gambler playing weak hands. His betting pattern is easy to read. I'm not sure how he won big tournaments, but if he's up against most European players who also over play weak hands and gamble a lot, he may get lucky. I can't say this in general, but most European "well-known" players (like Wahlroos, Juha, etc..) are gamblers and playing badly. Somehow, they get lucky when playing trashes and (the problem is) they believe they can always win with trashes.

Also, winning 1.5 million dollars playing high buy-in tournaments in 4-5 years doesn't seem to be +$EV. You are looking at 200k-300K gross winning per year. With all the expenses and buy-ins, that's nothing. I don't believe this Juha has been a great tournament player nor had he made good profit from tournaments.

[yellowsub]

man, w/ a winner take all structure, u gotta call that

[Valhalla]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, from his plays, I don't think he's a thinking player. He's more like a gambler playing weak hands. His betting pattern is easy to read. I'm not sure how he won big tournaments, but if he's up against most European players who also over play weak hands and gamble a lot, he may get lucky. I can't say this in general, but most European "well-known" players (like Wahlroos, Juha, etc..) are gamblers and playing badly. Somehow, they get lucky when playing trashes and (the problem is) they believe they can always win with trashes.

Also, winning 1.5 million dollars playing high buy-in tournaments in 4-5 years doesn't seem to be +$EV. You are looking at 200k-300K gross winning per year. With all the expenses and buy-ins, that's nothing. I don't believe this Juha has been a great tournament player nor had he made good profit from tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]
These guys are much more calculative than it may seem. For example Thomas Wahlroos was doing very well as an investment banker before he gave it up for poker. A guy with that background simply does not fire around blindly and definately does his math.

By the way these guys are both from Finland.

[uclabruinz]

This is a combo draw of some sort a vast majority of the time. He's not shoving a set hoping that you can't fold an overpair because most overpairs would have raised preflop. He thinks he's behind and that he can push you off whatever he has, but thinks he's got a good deal of outs if he can't.

In other words, call call call.

[Valhalla]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a combo draw of some sort a vast majority of the time. He's not shoving a set hoping that you can't fold an overpair because most overpairs would have raised preflop. He thinks he's behind and that he can push you off whatever he has, but thinks he's got a good deal of outs if he can't.

In other words, call call call.

[/ QUOTE ]
That would make sense if the pot was bigger but not in an empty pot.

[NYWalker]

[ QUOTE ]

These guys are much more calculative than it may seem. For example Thomas Wahlroos was doing very well as an investment banker before he gave it up for poker. A guy with that background simply does not fire around blindly and definately does his math.

By the way these guys are both from Finland.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I sat down with Wahlroos saw his play, 90% of the time he put all or most his chips in a draw. When he put someone on AK/AQ, he'd call all-in (max 50% of his stacks) with suited connectors. He kept telling me it's 40-60. That indicates a lot of gamble thinking. I look at 60% of time, I lose. He looks at 40% to win. Which is a unique style of play.

Sitting with Wahlroos long enough, you wouldn't put him on big hands when he makes moves. This is why he didn't understand why Paul Lee call his 4.8m push with just AQo.

================================================
This is from WPT realtime blog:
"Mike Wattel opens the pot for a T420,000 raise. Paul Lee calls behind him and Thomas Wahlroos moves all-in for T4.35 million more from the big blind. Wattel folds and Lee makes the call with AQ. Wahlroos shows A10 and can't believe that Lee made the call with his hand.

The flop comes J82, retaining the lead for Paul, but giving Wahlroos the nut flush draw. The turn is the 2, giving Wahlroos additional outs to split the pot. The river is the 5, missing Wahlroos completely and eliminating him in 7th place. Going out on the TV bubble, Wahlroos will collect $278,465."

Paul Lee plays straightforward basic poker. We play a lot in LA. The last time we were at the same table was at Hollywood Park $500NL tourney early this month. I'm sure Paul didn't put Wahlroos on big hands when he saw him pushes. (This is alos why Phil moves in with JJ against Wahlroos who happens to have AA)

On the other hand, Paul is the kind of player who won't fold AQ against pf push especially against loose player's push. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


Anyway, I'm glad to see 3 LA local players Tim,Kirk,Paul all made the final table! That's 50% of final table's "field".

Never underestimate the players playing daily $300-$500 live tournaments from LA. This is true "poker capital of the world"!

[John Dough]

[ QUOTE ]
"Mike Wattel opens the pot for a T420,000 raise. Paul Lee calls behind him and Thomas Wahlroos moves all-in for T4.35 million more from the big blind. Wattel folds and Lee makes the call with AQ. Wahlroos shows A10 and can't believe that Lee made the call with his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, he probably means the first call. Just cold calling and not reraising with AQo is a horrible play. Going "call raise-call push" with AQo that late in a tournament is fishy to say the least.

As far as the original post - I'm surprised that no one has put Jani on his most obvious hand yet, which is some kind of pair (pocket pair, maybe).

Jani is very solid and the type of player who observes other players and plays the opponent instead of his cards. He'll move you all in if he thinks you might fold, which is exactly what happened here. He probably did this because you had been only showing premium hands, so there was a big chance you wouldn't gamble even with the nut flash draw.

[React1oN]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, he probably means the first call.

[/ QUOTE ]I don't think so.

[eymon222]

I let this one go with no reads. live to play on. even at a 500$ sat. you could be ahead but your guessing. you have great draws but I wouldn't chase here. you could have 15 outs or nine, who knows ?. you could hit your flush but fill his FH. let lise one go, get him later. Eymon