Stars $5 re-buy. AA vs. Very loose player

[AceLuby]

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1500 is a good bet on the flop.
Bet the turn, at least 1500, you still don't know where your hand stands. The K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a really big scare card. If you get re-raised, you might be able to get rid of it.

River: as it stands I think you need to push if you are thinkging about calling, you have 3 K, 3 Q, 3 T, 3 7, 1 Ace and any heart (9 max, I'd say FOR SURE 5), so given that all these aren't live I'd say you have AT LEAST 13 outs and at most 16-17, I'd say you have to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I"M RETARDED, DON'T MIND ME ARRRR

[Black Aces 518]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this changes the result too much.

I'm wrong, I go broke. I'm right, I got a nice stack.

Calling only cripples you or wins the same stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so if you push, you either have 0 or the pot +1795
If you call, you either have 1795 or the pot+1795

I don't see how this "doesn't change the result much"

[Balze]

Would anybody else advocate pushing this flop?

My reasoning is this.

1) There are so many scare cards out there that one of them is going to come on the turn. Worst case, he's got the SFD or 2pr. You've got some redraws against 2pr, and you're 50/50 against the SFD.

1a) You won't know what to do if the turn is any of the scare cards (8,9,T,J,Q,K, any heart, I'm ruling out 7 because he likely won't call a significant bet with bottom pair and no flush draw on such a scary board) because there are so many draws out there that you don't know which one he's on. Only a few of those cards help him, but you have to be afraid of all of them.

2) The pot is already 1900 (half your current stack) which wouldn't be a bad take. Calling him down on the turn or river is going to hurt if you might be behind, and you're ahead on this flop 90% of the time. If you make the pot any bigger, you're both going to be getting good odds to call just about anything.

3) Against Limpy McLimperson here, you're probably going to get looked up by his draws because he wants to play and you'll definitely get looked up by top pair. He'll convince himself that his KJ straight draw is good because he's got a runner runner flush draw and overcards too (he just won't know that you're only giving him 6 outs).

[JoshNjuice]

Man, it's creepy that you posted this. I was actually just thinking about this hand and thought, "I wonder if my best move on the flop, given my stack size, is a push?" I was coming to the forum to ask that question when I saw that you had already articulated my reasoning almost verbatim.

I'm curious to hear some responses on this. Given that this is a tournament and my stack size is pretty small, is a push a bad idea here? Also, would the answer be different if I was OOP (say I'm UTG and Villain is in my seat in middle position)?

JoshNjuice