PokerStars hand # 4.99+B milestone thread

[SoCalRugger]

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The chance at this seems too +ve to pass up I'd be glad to be in a table with you silent.

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I think someone calculated the EV to be around $2/table. So, it really isn't too much when put into EV terms. But, if you have nothing better to do...

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If this figure is true, then I really don't get why you guys don't just 8 table normally and play real poker.

[grac]

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After midnight ET the number of active tables drops like a rock from 12000+ to less than 3000 meaning the milestone hands will be more spaced out (1 per 2 hours or so instead of 40 minutes). It will be easier to get tables, and there will be less competition.


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At what time should they start getting back to twice an hour as it might be foolish to stay up all night for 4 extra shots.

[thing85]

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The chance at this seems too +ve to pass up I'd be glad to be in a table with you silent.

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I think someone calculated the EV to be around $2/table. So, it really isn't too much when put into EV terms. But, if you have nothing better to do...

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If this figure is true, then I really don't get why you guys don't just 8 table normally and play real poker.

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It's the enjoyment to be had out of the chance of hitting it big, which can't be calculated in terms of EV. And, it's relatively easy to do. So far I've done it while watching TV (just clicking in the fold spot mindlessly) which I can't do while 8-tabling regular poker games.

[Silent A]

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I think someone calculated the EV to be around $2/table. So, it really isn't too much when put into EV terms. But, if you have nothing better to do...

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If this figure is true, then I really don't get why you guys don't just 8 table normally and play real poker.

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1. we have the rest of the year to do that
2. we can 8 table without lowering EV/table
3. if done properly, all the variance is +ve
4. EV of $16/30 minutes including organizing is pretty good for the stakes I usually play
5. on the big day (and that's what this is really all about) it'll be $16/5 minutes - no further organizing needed
6. during the wee hours, the EV at least triples (EV of almost $10/minute)

oh, and it's fun and I get to "meet" some new 2+2ers.

[Silent A]

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Wouldn't there be no blind cycles if all 6 of us are sitting out? Sorry I am slightly confused here.

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Maybe I'm confused. I thought you mentioned the scenario where 4 of the 6 can't stay and just sit out, leaving 2 of us when a milestone hand comes by. Once we start auto-folding the blinds will pass them 3 times in 6 hands (maybe 60 seconds or so). If we start more than 6 hands at this point, 4 players will get auto dumped. And even if we don't, the fact they missed 2 blinds will be remembered and it will only take one more next time around.
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So the final hand should be dealt by 2 pm? I'd be willing to pull the all nighter or possible early morning till 2pm. I just want to make sure I am in a 6max table of efficient folders lol.

The chance at this seems too +ve to pass up I'd be glad to be in a table with you silent.

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Oh man, I screwed this up royaly. I've been so focussed on 5 million hand cycles that I was thinking 5 million hands in the final stage, but it's 10 million. If 4.99B is at 11:00 pm ET or so, 5.00B will be close to 24 hours later (a bit earlier because I'm sure there will be increased traffic, but not more than a few hours).

Damn. A new approach is needed. I'm not crazy enough to play 24 hours straight, and i don't expect anyone else is either.

I was really looking forward to the higher EV late night games though, and I want to try to hit the big 5.00B.

So, my plan is still play from 4.99B to 2:00 ET. That should represent 11-12 of the 21 final hands and it'll include our best chances of winning something (it'll also give us chances to rest inbetween - up to 2 or 3 hours at a time).

After 2:00 ET I'll have to play it by ear. if I can get some descent rest between late night milestones I should be able to continue. Either way, I'm there for 5.00B.

[godofgamblers]

Same here, not playing 24 hours straight, but I'm very interested in playing tomorrow evening for when theres only like 12k people playing for 4 prizes.

[MicroBob]

Also should be noted that getting together with a bunch of people who aren't screwing it up also significantly increases EV.

I also doubt the claim that it's $2/table in value in the first place, even for bronze-star.


Almost every single hand I've played for these falls within 300 of the milestone number one way or another.

So I'm assuming a window of 600 total hands around that number...OR about a 1/600 chance of hitting it on each table.

You might get some that fall outside the 600 window. but I think there are other tables where you practically get two cracks at it within the same window to pretty much compensate for this.


1/600 chance at $2k = $3.33 in value.

If you're playing 6-max then you have 1/6 chance of hitting $5k if it hits on your table.

1/600 * 1/6 at $5k = $1.39

$3.33 + $1.39 = $4.72 per table.

And I think even this might be a bit low.
Plus, again, if you are doing it with people who are all aware of the promotion (and fold appropriately) then I think this easily takes it to $8/table in value or higher.


Even greater value if you are higher than bronze-star or for the actual 5-billionth of course.
Also different during different hours of the day too.


All of this is very rough guess-work of course and I might change my mind about some of this.


but I think a very rough approximation of $5-7/table if you have a couple idiots there and $10/table if you all have a clue probably isn't TOO far off.

Remember, all you have to do is check your tables. and then fold for a couple of minutes.
So $5 or more in value per table for just a couple minutes each time a milestone comes around really isn't too shabby if you're 8-tabling.

[Sykes]

you guys realize that it doesn't matter that it's $5 per table for ev, just that if you hit, you win $2K min

I don't know about you and your roll, but for a lot of us, 2k is huge.

[grac]

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Wouldn't there be no blind cycles if all 6 of us are sitting out? Sorry I am slightly confused here.

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Maybe I'm confused. I thought you mentioned the scenario where 4 of the 6 can't stay and just sit out, leaving 2 of us when a milestone hand comes by. Once we start auto-folding the blinds will pass them 3 times in 6 hands (maybe 60 seconds or so). If we start more than 6 hands at this point, 4 players will get auto dumped. And even if we don't, the fact they missed 2 blinds will be remembered and it will only take one more next time around.
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So the final hand should be dealt by 2 pm? I'd be willing to pull the all nighter or possible early morning till 2pm. I just want to make sure I am in a 6max table of efficient folders lol.

The chance at this seems too +ve to pass up I'd be glad to be in a table with you silent.

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Oh man, I screwed this up royaly. I've been so focussed on 5 million hand cycles that I was thinking 5 million hands in the final stage, but it's 10 million. If 4.99B is at 11:00 pm ET or so, 5.00B will be close to 24 hours later (a bit earlier because I'm sure there will be increased traffic, but not more than a few hours).

Damn. A new approach is needed. I'm not crazy enough to play 24 hours straight, and i don't expect anyone else is either.

I was really looking forward to the higher EV late night games though, and I want to try to hit the big 5.00B.

So, my plan is still play from 4.99B to 2:00 ET. That should represent 11-12 of the 21 final hands and it'll include our best chances of winning something (it'll also give us chances to rest inbetween - up to 2 or 3 hours at a time).

After 2:00 ET I'll have to play it by ear. if I can get some descent rest between late night milestones I should be able to continue. Either way, I'm there for 5.00B.

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Ok I understand what you mean now if the scenario I was talking about unfolded, we would need all 6 or a waiting list full. As to this lasting 24 hours, I would be interested in doing those late night ones since there will be less competition but I wouldn't be able to go all night. I would then take a break and come back the next day for a few more milestones.

[Ptolemy]

I'll throw my name in for 11:00 ET Friday until at least noon Saturday, probably longer, if there is a group looking for another person.