Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

[Bona]

Just to add a comment, and try to put a point on this hand. It sure looks to me like we have the best of this and villain also has the best of it. Both players will win big if this situation is played out a thousand times. Therefore the key to it is the dead money in the pot that CO, SB, and BB contributed. My lesson from this hand is not to undervalue the dead money in a pot.

[BadBigBabar]

just to add a point - no one in 1/2 prima is folding a big overpair here whether they have a spade or not, in my experience. the grinders will put you on a move and call you down.

[neurotiq]

I'd c/c in this spot.

[Smurph64]

this isn't a math question its a table metagame question.

He is folding or raising 90% of the time. A call is clearly a mistake unless he was bluffing preflop with middle pockets and has a spade or a straight draw card.

[BadBigBabar]

smurph, you might want to re-examine that

[OziBattler]

[ QUOTE ]
this isn't a math question its a table metagame question.

He is folding or raising 90% of the time. A call is clearly a mistake unless he was bluffing preflop with middle pockets and has a spade or a straight draw card.

[/ QUOTE ]

smurf, youve confused me (again)...are you saying he is either raising or folding or that a call by hero is clearly incorrect?

for you and anyone to convince me that b/f is better than c/c you need at least argue that he calls down with worse Pocket pairs than arent spades and/or folds the worst of his spade hands (JJ)

BTW the reads i gave in OP can be assumed to be accurate...this guy plays alot and ive datamined. In short he rarely gets out of line and IMHO he can make laydowns. Do i know if he is capable of foldinfg KK/QQ no spade...of course I dont know for sure but if anyone is capable of it..he fits the profile. Im pretty confident that he is more capable of folding KK/QQ than he is of incorrectly folding JJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

so Im contending that c/c > b/f since b/f allows our opponent to play more correctly. what is teh point of betting if he only folds with hands we beat? btw as per BBBs comment...yes, maybe he calls w KK

[knockonwood]

I have'nt got the book with me, but 'Holdem on the Come' by Rolf Slotbottom (or whatever his name is) has a good section on the odds of a made flush, depending on the number of players in the hand etc. Naturally, i can't remember the odds/percentages.

[Smurph64]

What I don't understand about c/c is what card comes on the river that helps you?

If I were playing you and you slowed down here I would bet with any two cards.

Are you saying you have the odds to call two on the chance he bluffs with no spade?

He needs 22 to 1 to draw to a set, which is a bad call. But its a bad call for me too and since my set is probably discounted the choice is check/fold or bet/fold.

I would rather bet/fold.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
If I were playing you and you slowed down here I would bet with any two cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't about you. This is about determining the best line against a villain who plays ABC poker as described in the original post.

[Aaron W.]

In this spot, I would toy around with the idea of check-calling the turn and donking the river. This allows ABC player to value bet his pairs and his flushes, but might entice him to call the river donk with his pairs because it seems so out of place.