Wynn 10k - Hand #2

[WarDekar]

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If you think he can bet this river with KQ it's a call. If not, fold. His bluff frequency isn't big enough.

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Are you saying that if KQ is the WORST hand he bets with, then we have a call?

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I hope not

[ZeeJustin]

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am i the only one who thinks a turn check would be excellent here?

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The hand before this made me want to play this hand faster than I normally would... mostly because of the added value from them thinking I might be tilting.

[Nate.]

nath --

I see what you're saying, but I think it's important to remember that this guy isn't adjusting how we'd adjust (and, critically, that includes preflop). He might get from "kid has nothing" to "bet," but that's far from certain. Also he might fear a checkraise for whatever reason.

I'm not sure this question admits of good analysis over the Internet; the major factors are either easily understood or heat-of-the-moment things. (But keep posting, ZJ; I think you usually choose good hands to discuss.) In a vacuum I think this is a fold but over the table I'd rely on my years of live Omaha experience to develop a physical read.

--Nate

[registrar]

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I fold because I don't think old people bluff and I think the hands that you beat are happy to get to showdown with that scare card

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I love that in the States, old person=nit. It's totally the opposite here. However, it's also the case that old people = playing any two.

If we believe his bluff frequency is low, why not bet/fold the river?

[Prime Time]

I hate to tell you this.
But you need to block bet here against me.

[Prime Time]

Also by older, do you mean like me? or 50's plus etc?

[Larude]

What i think is really strange is that this old guy, suppose he has AA, KK, KQ, (even something with a nine) doesnt raise the turn knowing that the big blind could be drawing by now. This would mean he is drawing himself with JTs, which on the flop is a longshot but maybe worthwile a try. Strangely as it may look though i think he has JJ or TT (wouldnt cross out 88), knowing that he might have the best hand on the flop, but don't have the guts to do something until the river (putting pressure on you - old players are experienced).. Wouldn't be surprised to see Q9 also, that would make the most sense of his play (altough the chance he has exactly that is very small). I think calling and folding are close. There really might be a 30% chance he has JJ or TT. I think I also would have checked the turn knowing that it would be unlikely for both players to be drawing on such a board.

[NoahSD]

Yeah, if he bets KQ this is a call. In general I expect people to bet KQ here so I'd call.

I don't think the read is hugely relevant because I think tight old guys still make stupid bets with marginal hands when you check to them on the river.

[Howard Treesong]

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If you think he can bet this river with KQ it's a call. If not, fold. His bluff frequency isn't big enough.

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Assuming the effective stack size is ZJ's stack, I'd set his range on the river as something like AQ KQ AA KK QQ 99 TJ T9, maybe 98 and a small bluff frequency (as you say). Of these, I'd discount AA-QQ because of the preflop play. PF, I'd include JJ TT 88 77 and 66 but those don't get to the river when held by a tight oldie.

I don't think KQ is a big enough part of this range to call.

I'm pretty sure I'm mucking from ZJ's spot.

[bosoxfan0509]

I think this is a relatively easy call if the guy is tight (I have an image of a player who plays like Jerry Buss often does). I rule out AA and KK because I see a tight player reraising with these hands preflop. Also rule out 10-9 and 8-9. Say his most likely hand range is 99-QQ, KQ, or AQ. Possibly 77 or 88 but probably not. I just think the 3 most likely hands are JJ, KQ, and AQ.