Dumb Noob Question (Trips in the Hole)

[niss]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno - I agree.

But people in this thread advocate folding AAA3r preflop, while suggesting that AA39r has some magical properties that makes it a good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody in this thread has advocated folding AAA3r pre-flop.

[Split Suit]

correct. i dont kno why Phil thinks i sed fold AAA3. most ever. however, altho i agree the numbers look a lil funny that i posted earllier...i still think they are correct. how can a pretty much 2 card hand fair better than a 4 card random hand? its seems pretty intuitive to me...

[Phil153]

While I screwed up my numbers (thanks bart), you should be able to see that your numbers for AAA3r vs a random hand are completely wrong (and in fact should be barely different to AA39r). I'll have to show you some numbers vs various hands:


- Js 9s Jc Tc

As Ac Ad 3h 59.3%
As Ac 9d 3h 64.3%

- 2c 2h 3c 4s

As Ac Ad 3h 0.674
As Ac 9d 3h 0.664

- 6c 5h 3c 4s

As Ac Ad 3h 0.633
As Ac 9d 3h 0.625

- Kc 5h 3c 8s

As Ac Ad 3h 0.656
As Ac 9d 3h 0.656


- 6c 7c 8h 9h

As Ac Ad 3h 0.511
As Ac 9d 3h 0.542

- Kc Ks 4h 5h

As Ac Ad 3h 0.649
As Ac 9d 3h 0.653

From the above we can see:

- AAA3r is almost the same as AA39r vs a random hand - there about a ~2% difference.
- The main effect of the 9 is two pair blocking where opp. also has a 9. Replace any of the numbers with a 9 to see the difference it makes.
- The extra trips and sets bartlog alluded to have virtually no effect (<1%).
- The extra A blocking a counterfeit and straight is significant vs low cards for example see the 2234 numbers where AAA3 is AHEAD of AA93.

Conclusion: I win this thread.

niss - SS was advocating folding AAA3r for beginners. He specifically listed AAA3s as playable but not AAA3o. My only point was that if you're folding AAA3r, you should also be folding AA39r, because the difference is tiny. Also read this:

[ QUOTE ]
I think the numbers are irrelevant here anyways. AAAX, especially AAA2 or AAAA, is a "snowing" hand analogous to 2222X in KCL but a hair more common. It has limited value on it's own,

[/ QUOTE ]

People clearly have some misconceptions about the effect on trips on hand playability. Many of them also fail to understand where the power of AA comes from - it's NOT the chance of making trips. So niss, be quiet and let your betters speak.

[Split Suit]

i never sed fold AAA3,,,i just didnt advise playing it for some1 with a lack of understanding of the game (aka, a beginner).

if ur stats/odds calculator is correct...then yes, u win the thread. tho i think we are sayyin the same thing (AAA3 is a playable hand) despite the trips in it. btw, which odds calculator are u using? (i DLed some random one last night, so it might not b correct. i wont lie to u on that).

(and to the AAAx hand being a 'snow' hand...thats just silly. AAAA=unplayable, AAA2= very playable. simple as that)

and phil...u proved urself wrong. earllier in the thread u asked for me to show u that AA93 > AAA3. congrats...u did the math and proved that. we all learned something...now that was fun

Phil: 1
Everyone: 0
SS: -.5

[Phil153]

Just having some fun. BTW I think the final numbers are:

Phil: 0.5
Everyone except niss: 0.5
niss: 0

[bbartlog]

Impressively close, a lot closer than I would have thought. I think I failed to account for the fact that AAA3 (as well as AA3x) can beat opponent's two pair a lot of the time just by pairing the board, which significantly reduces the already small benefit of the increased chance of trips (and AAA sets).

[Phil153]

Just wrote my own range calculator

Ac As 9d 3h vs a random hand: 63.7%
Ac As Ad 3h vs a random hand: 61.6%

If anyone's interested here is the breakdown:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Ac As 9d 3h vs 1000000 random hands
Total: 1000000
High Card: 0%
One Pair: 32.0592%
Two Pair: 38.8831%
Three of a Kind: 15.5589%
A Straight: 2.9201%
A Flush: 0%
A Full House: 9.5908%
Four of a Kind: 0.9879%
A Straight Flush: 0%
Make Low: 36.5235%
Win Low: 31.6136%
Tie Low: 1.6723%

Ac As Ad 3h vs 1000000 random hands
Total: 1000000
High Card: 0%
One Pair: 40.4095%
Two Pair: 41.5742%
Three of a Kind: 8.9967%
A Straight: 2.9778%
A Flush: 0%
A Full House: 5.9841%
Four of a Kind: 0.0577%
A Straight Flush: 0%
Make Low: 36.545%
Win Low: 33.5756%
Tie Low: 0.878%
</pre><hr />

The interesting thing is the win% for three of a kind vs two pair. These numbers look wrong but they're pulled straight out of the evaluator routine (which is giving the correct results). Catching three of a kind really doesn't add much value to our showdown.

The %s represent how often we win for hi only (low is not considered) when hitting that hand type:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Ac As 9d 3h vs 1000000 random hands:

Total: 1000000
High Card: NaN
One Pair: 40.1%
Two Pair: 62.4%
Three of a Kind: 77.4%
A Straight: 69.9%
A Flush: NaN
A Full House: 96.4%
Four of a Kind: 99.9304036587791%
A Straight Flush: NaN
</pre><hr />

[bbartlog]

Interesting that the win% for the three of a kind is higher than for the straight. Counterintuitive, but it actually makes sense, since the only straight we can make makes it a lot easier for our opponent to have an even better straight.

The small gain from three of a kind reflects the strength of our two pair hands. Most of the two pair hands we make (except 9s and 3s, for AA39) will beat any other two pair hand, so for trips to be better for us opponent must also have trips. If you ran normal hands against each other you'd often have situations where you needed trips to beat opponent's two pair, and the percentages would not be skewed like they are here...

[TMTTR]

[ QUOTE ]
AA93 &gt; AAA3

in fact, against a random hand, AA93&gt;R @ 65/35
and AAA3&lt;R @ 47/53

and i wud never suggest folding an AAW
almost ever.


[/ QUOTE ]

So... given the later, more accurate, stats -- where the f*** do these numbers come from, SplitSuit? Please don't tell me you regularly make stats up to post on these boards...

[Split Suit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA93 &gt; AAA3

in fact, against a random hand, AA93&gt;R @ 65/35
and AAA3&lt;R @ 47/53

and i wud never suggest folding an AAW
almost ever.


[/ QUOTE ]

So... given the later, more accurate, stats -- where the f*** do these numbers come from, SplitSuit? Please don't tell me you regularly make stats up to post on these boards...

[/ QUOTE ]

i already stated that i got these stats from a Calculator i DLd that night. apparently the numbers might b a lil off (if u want the link so u dont just think im makin this [censored] up..ill provide it).

ps. dont believe everything u read on the internet anyway...always do ur own homework.