Overbetting: When to use it?

[Smart Money]

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Smart Money: I like the bluff, but I think you can get away with a smaller overbet.

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Yes. Good point. There is an optimal overbet calculated by:

(p(villain folding) * $25) - (p(villain holds a 7) * $overbet)

If we bet too little, it decreases the probability of the villain folding a split pot, but it also reduces our loss when we are beat and vice versa.

However, when the probability of the villain having a hand that beats us is very small (as in this example) then it pays to keep the overbet large.

[threads13]

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A less common, but effective, overbet is when the river ensures the pot is [almost certainly] split but you represent a stronger hand.

Here is an example from this afternoon where the [tightish] villain almost certainly has an Ace but the probability of him having a 7 kicker is very slim- making the overbet a +EV move.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $204.35
SB: $196
Hero (BB): $188
UTG: $203.85
MP: $291.70
CO: $405.45

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $2, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($5) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($13) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $10

River: ($53) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $162 and is All-In</font>, UTG folds

Results: $53 Pot ($2.65 Rake)
Hero mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $50.35 (+$24.35 NET)

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this is pretty bad unless you actually have a 7. i agree you will be folding out a lot of chopping hands, but i don't think the pot is anywhere near big enough to make this kind of play. you're risking 180 to win 50, and the times you are called you're often getting smoked.

that being said, his turn bet does polarize his hand towards ace high straights.

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Actually, I think it is a good bet to make on this board as your hand will specifically be the complete nuts if you overbet this board. I really think its a matter of multilevel thinking.