My JJ is under fire too

[Daniel Magix]

Alright, this is what I got...

Assuming I am behind now, I have 10 outs to improve my hand:
J (2)
Q (4)
7 (4)

I have 46 unseen cards, giving me about 3.6-to-1 shot of improving.
At this point, when the action gets to me, I am getting 8-to-1 if I call the two bets here.
I have correct odds to call now.
But I don't really want to see a heart on the river, so I knock out 3 of my 10 outs. Now I have 7 outs, and I drop to 5.5-to-1 to make my hand. I still have the right odds so far.
I also don't love my last J as an out, since it makes a potential straight. I take off one more out. I am now about 6.5-to-1.
Even a non-heart Q is no guarantee, since (especially at .02/04) SB or BB could be sticking around with their KJ, trying to gutshot a win. But since I have two of the J's, a KJ hand is less likely.
I am also aware that UTG can very well 3bet this if I call, and UTG+1 can cap. Assuming it gets capped, I would now be calling 4BBs on the turn. Pot size would be at 23BBs if I called and it got capped behind me. I would then be 11.5-to-1 to call the cap.

And there is of course the potential for someone to already have a flush. I am unsure about how to factor in an already made flush, to my odds here.

Ok, my brain hurts. I will stop at this point and wait for some replies.

[MrWookie]

Daniel,

You're on the right track. If you want to do this absolutely correctly, you don't totally discount the outs that will sometimes make you a second best hand. Instead, you scale them by the probability that they will give you the best hand. Thus, if a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] gives someone a flush 25% of the time, the three outs you knocked out are worth 0.75*3, not 0. However, you do have to take into account RIO, where you'll be putting in money with the worst hand sometimes if you hit and are no good. Thus, you'll often want to discount your outs by somewhat more than that.

[OX45AL]

[groching]
Fold, with two of them going for it i say that, at best it is a draw to a chopped stright. folding is a hard thing for me to do with 13BB sitting in the POT.