I play Bad, Please Help Me Sleep at night

[Heisenb3rg]

I think a c/r on this flop is so inferior to a donk. Like I dont even think it's close to close.

1) this is an action flop. There are tons of hands who will want to get a lot of money in on this flop, if you bet, and button raises (a hand he was going to bet). There will be plenty of possible cold callers or 3-bettors, allowing you to cap. It's not like donking kills your action. if button calls, someone could very well raise behind you.

2) You protect your very vulnerable top pair to gutshots and other pair draws.
Sure getting a hand like AJ along for the ride is fine too, This is because of your flush draw and the fact they are probaibly making a small mistake..
However, there is signicant value in knocking people out of the pot for your pair to hold up UI.
The pot is a decent size, so winning it when you dont improve is not a bad result.
If you get action, you're probabily getting it from hands that beat your pair, so now you're relying on your drawing equity.
If you get no action, you probabily folded out hands that you were nearly indifferent to being in anyways.. Also not a bad result.
An underutilized concept for a drawing hand w/TP , is if you let hands in on the flop in a multiway pot, that hits a monster on the turn, the turn could be going for a ride from 2 people with strong hands, when your equity isn't great. On a board like this , this happens a lot. This is less prounounced when your drawing to the nutflush.. But still very true.

3) If your hand gets checked through, which I think will happen at least 20%+ of the time from the average player (this board 4 way is the epitomy of a bad c-bet from any gutshot or AK type hand), you miss out on soooo many bets, and give tons of hands a chance to draw out on you for free in what's now a pretty big pot.

I would be willing to bet my entire poker roll that c/r here is a BIG mistake.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

If I'm Button, FWIW, I'm definitely raising a few worse hands (JJ/TT/A9s, the nut flush draw) if you bet into me on the flop.

[joker122]

"There will be plenty of possible cold callers or 3-bettors, allowing you to cap. It's not like donking kills your action. if button calls, someone could very well raise behind you. "

"
2) You protect your very vulnerable top pair to gutshots and other pair draws. "

which is it?

funny you think it's not even close and you'd bet your whole roll that donking is correct because i feel the same way about a cr. one of us sucks really bad [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[gehrig]

hey nate u were right about dustin pedroia <3 <3 <3

[HOWMANY]

I don't see how this board is a bad one to cbet gutshots. AT/AJ have gutshot+over. KT/KJ have gutshot+over and their gutshot is to the straight that gives other gutshots the frowntown. Not cbetting on this flop with these hands would be pretty peculiar I think.

The hands that we assume are checking behind this flop are like 66/77/AK. Saying that people check behind AT/AJ/KT/KJ is pretty unrealistic I think. You can add 55/A6s-A7s to hands he checks behind if you really want but those aren't 3bet as much as the ones I mentioned, I don't think it makes a difference. Every other T/J obviously flopped a pair or a straight so that's getting bet for sure.

If we were the UTG and magically posted here and button raised then I think the case for donking would be much stronger, but his 3bet should lean his range toward tons of hands that are betting this flop.

[Heisenb3rg]

Joker:
Read the rest of what I wrote. You're thinking too much in absolutes. An action flop doesnt gurantee action, it just means it's more likely to happen.It depends on their hands... When you get action, your top pair is no good anyway.. So your drawing, but your equity is good. When you don't get action, you would have wanted to protect your hand, because that means your hand is probabily good.

Two very good scenarios:
1) You take this pot down UI and it doesnt grow much bigger
2) You bloat the pot in a multi way flop as an underdog with a nice equity edge.

One awful scenario:
1) The flop gets checked through


Howmany:
It's very bad to c-bet a hand like KT here IMO because

a) you are almost never getting a better hand to fold
b) you are very very very rarely taking this hand down UI
c) your outs are severly tainted. Flush draw is out there, 3 high cards in a 4-way 3-bet pot means two pair+set redraw, hitting your overpair makes two pair etc.
d) You will get isolated, or the flop will get jammed a high % of the time.

that being said, a lot of people will c-bet a hand like KT for sure.. A lot of people wont though (me being one of them).

Too many people "check to the raiser" in multiway pots, so I think the other players range after they check is pretty close to their pre-flop range.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
hey nate u were right about dustin pedroia <3 <3 <3

[/ QUOTE ]

Pedroia Power!!!

[milesdyson]

"milesdyson u cant say he chks 40% even if those hands are 40% of his range bc those hands will get bet some % of the time"

the hands i listed are a lot more than 40%

check hands:
AK AJ AT KJ KT 55 66 77
15 15 15 15 15 3 6 6 = 90

bet hands:
AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 AQ KQ + the 5 flush draws AK/AJ/AT/KJ/KT
6 6 1 6 6 3 3 8 8 + 5 = 52

90/(90+52) is 63%

also i think something really important to consider is that SB is probably horrible (preflop) and BB is obviously horrible (stats + preflop). they are not getting out very often on this flop.

[HOWMANY]

If you are giving him KJ/KT which I think we should be then I think that JT/QJ/QT need to be included as well.

[Heisenb3rg]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are giving him KJ/KT which I think we should be then I think that JT/QJ/QT need to be included as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.. Slightly discounted though. More people will 3-bet KJ than JT (I didnt go through your numbers myles, but I assumed you discounted the Q hands for you having a Q + it being on the board )