MyTurn's week 3 CFB (9/14-9/16) - Page 3

iggymcfly · #21 09-11-2006, 12:26 AM

I like the Syracuse pick a lot. It was one of the 15 lines I wrote down that I really liked, and the only reason I didn't bet on it yet is that I think the line will continue to move toward Illinois throughout the week. If it gets to +6 or starts moving backwards, I'll hop on it right away, and otherwise, I'll just wait until Thursday to bet it.

MyTurn2Raise · #22 09-11-2006, 12:38 AM

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Florida Atlantic vs Oklahoma State (-27) for Game

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OK...you can search for some of my comments on Florida Atlantic from last week, but, in summary, this is the worst team I've seen all season on tv, in tape, or in person. That's saying alot considering I'm an Illini fan and saw them whup Eastern Illinois.

In the first week, FAU was lucky to only lose 54-6 to Clemson. Last week, FAU lost to lowly Kansas State 45-0.
FAU must be the only Florida school without Florida athletes as they are continually killed in the speed aspects of the game:
Opponents' wide receivers are open all day
FAU's WRs are blanketed
Opponents' returners find gaps and outrun everyone through them
Opponents' RBs consistently get to the outside and down the field
Opponents' rack up big plays and FAU doesn't

Schnellenberger should give the game up as his schemes are awful and his playcalling is predictable. The school just wants to collect its paychecks and move onto the Conference schedule. Last week FAU had 41 carries for 50 yards! Kansas State had 30 carries for over 230 yards! Clemson also averaged over 5 ypc verse the Owls, while only averaging 1.3 ypc.

Don't expect the Owls running game to show up this week. Oklahoma St's rush defense is only allowing 89 ypg this season against admittedly inferior competition of Missouri St and Arkansas St (though Ark St was 2nd in the Sun Belt running last season). The strength of the OSU defense happens to lie upfront. Expect lots of sacks, turnovers, and negative rushing plays for the owls as an above average BigXII front 7 is the last thing the Owls want to see.
If the Owls reach double-digits, it will be a minor miracle.

On the other side of the ball, OSU brings back a wealth of experience and depth. 8 starters return, which has lead the Cowboys to 52-10 and 35-7 trouncings of their early competition. So far, the Cowboys have used the rushing attack (almost 5 ypc) to set the base and pound out wins. That same strategy will work verse Florida Atlantic. It will even lead to big plays when the RBs get around the outside. The only negative has been the 3 picks OSU had last week. However, Florida Atlantic doesn't have the skill players to create that many turnovers. Expect 1 pick here IMO.

In addition, FAU has been crushed back-2-back at major conference road venues. Last week was their best chance to impress and they fell way short. I don't picture this team battling too hard once they fall behind.

Umm...I see another 40-0 loss or so for FAU

bummer

NajdorfDefense · #23 09-11-2006, 12:44 AM

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I like the Syracuse pick a lot. It was one of the 15 lines I wrote down that I really liked, and the only reason I didn't bet on it yet is that I think the line will continue to move toward Illinois throughout the week. If it gets to +6 or starts moving backwards, I'll hop on it right away, and otherwise, I'll just wait until Thursday to bet it.

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cuse is down to 3.5

MyTurn2Raise · #24 09-11-2006, 01:45 AM

I ended up middling the Louisville/Miami
still like Miami at +6

Guyon · #25 09-11-2006, 02:59 AM

MT2R,

Your Rutgers/Ill pick in week 2 was a big winner. If you like to calculate EV, I was able to convince some Baton Rouge gamblers (who don't know much about football outside the SEC, still think highly of Illinois b/c of the 2001 Sugar bown, tout about Ron Zook (who coached at UF and Saints D-coor),and believe that still Rutgers sucks more than any team in the NCAA) to take Illinois at a Pick'em. Wow, I laughed so hard at their expense.

mulebennett · #26 09-11-2006, 12:26 PM

MyTurn, i have really enjoyed your insight on these games. even though week 2 was rough, i appreciate the work, the research, and the write-ups that you do. plus, with the rutgers pick you made last week i sounded like a genius to my friends (though i did some outside research as well). keep up the good work, man

pwnsall · #27 09-11-2006, 12:40 PM

No one like Texas -29.5 at Rice?

Texas always runs up the score on bad teams and their defense will easily be able to hadle the Rice attack. seems like a 52-7 game to me, even with some possible hangover.

Grasshopp3r · #28 09-11-2006, 12:50 PM

I really like your Arizona State pick against CU. I would lay lots of points there, maybe even up to 20.

I do not like the over, unless you think that ASU will score 40+. CU is really that bad on offense. Their QB situation is terrible. Also, one of their highly touted QB's of the future just quit the team after getting beat out of the starting job in spring ball, leaving a converted WR and Cox, who has the Montana State debacle under his belt.

MyTurn2Raise · #29 09-11-2006, 01:30 PM

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MT2R,

Your Rutgers/Ill pick in week 2 was a big winner. If you like to calculate EV, I was able to convince some Baton Rouge gamblers (who don't know much about football outside the SEC, still think highly of Illinois b/c of the 2001 Sugar bown, tout about Ron Zook (who coached at UF and Saints D-coor),and believe that still Rutgers sucks more than any team in the NCAA) to take Illinois at a Pick'em. Wow, I laughed so hard at their expense.

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Pick'em....that's AWESOME
lol

Funny, I thought they didn't really think much of Illinois either. Everytime I go down that way, I still get the "Tiger Bait" taunts and constant reminders of the Sugar Bowl if I wear anything that says Illinois.

MyTurn2Raise · #30 09-11-2006, 01:35 PM

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No one like Texas -29.5 at Rice?

Texas always runs up the score on bad teams and their defense will easily be able to hadle the Rice attack. seems like a 52-7 game to me, even with some possible hangover.

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I like it, just not enough to bet on it.

I was impressed that Rice was able to get some good pass rush verse UCLA last week after UCLA kept UTAH locked out in week 1.

If Rice can create a turnover or two, they might be able to hang around to cover the spread.

In addition, the Rice offense doesn't appear to be nearly as hopeless this year with the new spread offense attack and Major Applewhite's playcalling. If I had to bet this game, I would've been on at Texas -28 when I first saw it. Obviously, with the line move, most people are thinking like you. I just see better opportunities this week elsewhere.