AA no good?

[pnoles]

I think the key to this hand is that jk3a is MP and not CO or BTN. If he's in the CO, I say TT probably 3-bets the raise, but from MP, greg probably doesn't, leaving TTT77 as a possibility. He's more likely to set-mine vs MP, because he figures MP raise is stronger than CO raise and he can get better set value from MP, allowing him to c/f the ones he misses. If he has a PP that missed, I think you'd see the check-raise more if you were in the CO instead of MP. As is, I'd say it's pretty close (I can totally see greg playing JJ and AsKs the same way). The fact that the BB cold called the raise might be a draw, but it's the way every donk in the universe plays the 7 as well. I doubt you're beating both of them, and even if you are beating BB (and get greg to fold his presumably weaker holding), he's likely got a good amount of outs, whereas if you're losing you have 2 at best. And ummm hi....quad sevens? =)

Please don't flat call this. You're at the mercy of the turn card, and if greg has you beat, he might try to trick you by checking turn as well, causing you to either fire out or be forced to call something on the river.

I would probably never fold this hand in the moment, but the more I think about it, I say it's a fold, and if you folded it, good job. The situation definitely is not as simple as the "ZOMG NIT!!! GET OUT!!!" vibe I'm getting from some people though.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the key to this hand is that jk3a is MP and not CO or BTN. If he's in the CO, I say TT probably 3-bets the raise, but from MP, greg probably doesn't

[/ QUOTE ]

He has 3 bet me with TT oop after I raised utg at a full table. I don't necessarily know that he always does but he seems like the type of player that just plays like he's using an internal hand chart preflop, raise these hands, 3 bet these hands, call with these hands, etc.

[JasonP530]

I agree with your reads and analysis of gregosu. He likes to be aggro with his good hands, regardless of the action. The problem I see is that if we are ahead of him, we are not superlikely to get a lot of money from him if we call, where he will probably extract the max when he has us crushed. I know the BB is a donk, but he likely has a 7(there is a decent chance he would push or fold a draw there), so you need to beat greg to come out even here. I just don't see that happening frequently enough to make it worth it.

-Jason

[Burdzthewurd]

Post results plz?

[Fonkey123]

Shrug, I shove it here.

[Lucky]

fold

[Jshuttlesworth]

Djjj,
Don't listen to pineapple... you give way better strat advice than he does.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
Djjj,
Don't listen to pineapple... you give way better strat advice than he does.

[/ QUOTE ]


Thanks for your valuable contribution to this thread. Tool.

Obviously detailed reads can change the strategy here. I don't recall seeing six lines of reads in the initial post. But if your read is that the nit rarely has you beat, and the shorty rarely has you beat, then WTF, get the money in, why the hell even post it?

But if it worries you even a bit that an unknown is playing *exactly* like he has you beat... AND you realize that even if you have the nit beat, he's certainly putting in no more money in that case given this action... then why would you do anything but fold?

[pineapple888]

Also, as others have noted, you will often find yourself SA/WB here if more money goes in. So you have to be ahead *WAY* more times than behind to make up for that. EDIT: Although pot odds help with that here of course.


You have a pocket pair on a paired board with heavy action. The obvious answer is...