Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
Forgetting for a moment the nearly unbroken string of poor decisions that have gotten
us to this point,we might salvage this disaster yet.
Can we get the CO to fold? He did hesitate before calling.
Keeping in mind his tight play can we put him on a missed draw? Probably not but that's OK.
You have represented AQ to the CO in most cases. Whatever he thinks there is only one
option left to us to win this a pot. We have to bet. A push might be seen as suspiscious
under these circumstances. Why not try a different tack?
Seeing 9k+ in the pot we could underbet and try to convince CO that we are trying to get the most out of our top pair. It may seem to go against the grain but does it?
Seeing a bet of say 3500 what is CO to think? The river certainly didn't help his hand. And since he showed hesitation on the turn he could be done.
Many times I've seen this playstyle go down in flames when their lack of subtlty has them aggressively push on the river. We can still win this without showing our hand.
No matter the outcome we haven't shown any particular skills playing this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

yea, any bet smaller than an allin will look too tempting to call.

and there are still a few drawing hands that he could have... 89c 78c.. maaaybe 67c?

Anyway, i really like how the hand played out.. i agree with every street pretty much.. (except i said raise to 500 PF, and 5k on the turn) but i think the 4k on the turn might be better, it lets us get a read on the opponent (he thought for a minunte before calling) and gives us considerably better FE on the river (7k into 9k, intead of 6k into 11k)

And after reading the first wave of responses, ive gotten really confident with my first impression to push.

So push!

[AtticusFinch]

Honestly, I don't see how question 2 is necessary. How can you answer question 1 without first answering question 2?

I've said all along that our play looks exactly like a made straight. The only other hand that seems likely from our line is AQ. As Adanthar said, we'd have to be nuts to play a set or overpair this way, and I presume that at this point villain's read of us at least concludes that we're not that crazy.

Here's a hand villain could easily have called the turn with but might still lay down on the river: a set. Sure, he was only getting 2/1 vs 3.6/1 odds for filling up, but sets are hard to lay down, and he could have called based on some implied odds from the rest of our stack, and a lack of complete confidence in his read. His hesitation smells exactly like, "Damn, that bastard made his straight. Can I call?" Other possibilities are a pair with a jack (especially QJ), or something like 78c.

In the low-buyin tourneys I play, I check behind, because I can't credit those players with the ability to lay down a set, or even two pair, EVER. And TPTK, maybe once in a blue moon, but not often.

But here, in a 10k buyin, against a solid opponent, I'd be inclined to push. Villain is far from dead if he calls and loses, but he sure won't be happy. Of course, a more detailed read would come into play, but absent other information, I'm pulling the trigger.

[CardSharpCook]

Well, the nice thing about raising such a small amount on the turn is that it makes it look like we already have a made hand. At this point, the stack sizes work in our favor. A bet of 4K or 5K would be standard nut peddling, but it would be very awkward to bet 5K and leave 2K behind. So going AI is a more attractive option. After putting 4600 in this pot, CO is still happy with his 20K. Taking a 7k hit here isn't going to make him happy if he holds K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I think we have 100% FE over all hands of 2nd button or less. How about Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? Can he call if you push? Yes, but he'll only do so 20% of the time. I estimate 80% FE over TP?K. Now we get into the danger hands - two pair or better. I think our FE drops to 60% vs. Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He still lays this down quite often, but he is aware of the bluff possibility. We even have FE over trips. CO's range for our hand should be 99,TT,KJ, or a bluff (if we AI the river). Other hands that we can reasonably hold just don't bet here. AQ, KQ both check behind. So, unless he is just calling our bluff, CO should fold 33 here. Will he? Not as often as he should, and given other trip possibilities, I estimate FE over trips to be about 20%.

So, the problem here is that the CO knows we need the str8 or slow-played trips to be able to bet here. Other bets don't make sense (just check behind). The question is, will he call our bluff? Given the strong way we played the turn (a raise to 4K from 1500 instead of raising more) I think he will fold. In fact, I'm willing to "risk my tourney life" on it.

PULL THE TRIGGER!!!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

CSC

[Exitonly]

interesting river.. i think we have a decent amount of FE at this point.. definitely enough to make a push profitable i'd say... we played this hand just like we flopped a set, or turned a straight and i think we can get villain to fold top pair and more here.. . He only needs to fold to the push like 44% of the time to be profitable...

of course if we check we can't lose anymore and can still vs some busted draws (78c is one of the very few i can think of that could possibly still be around)

--

I think i'm leaning towards pushing as of now...

gonna go and read the responses now.

[Iconoclastic]

I'm happy to see that the original Hero took the same line I would have preflop and on the Flop AND on the Turn...anyways lol

My original range for CO was [JJ-22,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A3o,KTo+,QJo,JTo]

After checking the F and betting the T his range was narrowed to [TT-99, 33, A3s, A9s, ATs, AQs, AJs, AKs, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A3o, A9o, ATo, AQo, AJo, AKo, KTo+, QJo, JTo]. After calling the Turn reraise that range has been narrowed to [TT, 99, KJo/s, T9s, 33]. I'm going mostly on the read that CO is Tight and usually Tight players don't call 2:1 odds with just one pair and a OESD out of position. Now the hands that could fold to a Push include T9s and 33, and the other random hands below that strength that CO could have gone this far with. That comes out to a Fold 33% of the time. 66% of the time you're going to lose if you Push.

At least the raise on the Turn knocked MJ out of the hand so we don't have to worry about him anymore...

Now the pot is 10k, and I have 7k with the Villain covering me. If the CO:
Calls: -7000 (66%)= -4620
Folds: +10,000 (33%)= +3333

Conclusion: (Bill Walton voice) "Check it down, big man, check it down."

BTW it's perfectly reasonable for CO to have checked the nuts or the near nuts on the River. Some players are weak-tight and others (Doug Lee on TV comes to mind) check the River after being raised on the Turn with the nuts in hopes of a check-raise. Not a good play, but it happens.

[Iconoclastic]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm happy to see that the original Hero took the same line I would have preflop and on the Flop AND on the Turn...anyways lol

My original range for CO was [JJ-22,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A3o,KTo+,QJo,JTo]

After checking the F and betting the T his range was narrowed to [TT-99, 33, A3s, A9s, ATs, AQs, AJs, AKs, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A3o, A9o, ATo, AQo, AJo, AKo, KTo+, QJo, JTo]. After calling the Turn reraise that range has been narrowed to [TT, 99, KJo/s, T9s, 33]. I'm going mostly on the read that CO is Tight and usually Tight players don't call 2:1 odds with just one pair and a OESD out of position. Now the hands that could fold to a Push include T9s and 33, and the other random hands below that strength that CO could have gone this far with. That comes out to a Fold 33% of the time. 66% of the time you're going to lose if you Push.

At least the raise on the Turn knocked MJ out of the hand so we don't have to worry about him anymore...

Now the pot is 10k, and I have 7k with the Villain covering me. If the CO:
Calls: -7000 (66%)= -4620
Folds: +10,000 (33%)= +3333

Conclusion: (Bill Walton voice) "Check it down, big man, check it down."

BTW it's perfectly reasonable for CO to have checked the nuts or the near nuts on the River. Some players are weak-tight and others (Doug Lee on TV comes to mind) check the River after being raised on the Turn with the nuts in hopes of a check-raise. Not a good play, but it happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 more things:

1) It would have been great to get the 2+2 members who are generally respected as at least competent professionals (Fossilman, Jen Harman, Greenstein, etc) to put in their "expert" analysis

2) The utility of saving 10BB by bluffing 5k instead of All-in into a pot of 10k against a Tight player should outweigh the lower FE.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
2) The utility of saving 10BB by bluffing 5k instead of All-in into a pot of 10k against a Tight player should outweigh the lower FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way, you need all the FE you can get here, and your 10BB stack is going to be tiny as hell in this tournament, you're in push fold mode this early? that's like have 200 in a pokerstars tournaemnt in the 10/20 Blind level while everyone else is at 1500...

Not a cool situation.. i'll take the extra FE thank youver much.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2) The utility of saving 10BB by bluffing 5k instead of All-in into a pot of 10k against a Tight player should outweigh the lower FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way, you need all the FE you can get here, and your 10BB stack is going to be tiny as hell in this tournament, you're in push fold mode this early? that's like have 200 in a pokerstars tournaemnt in the 10/20 Blind level while everyone else is at 1500...

Not a cool situation.. i'll take the extra FE thank youver much.

[/ QUOTE ]

except that it's debateable which bet actually has more FE. I think that it's different for different players. You might have more FE w/ a 5k bet vs. some players plus the fact that if they call you, you have 10x left.

[fnurt]

2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]??? THIS THREAD IS RIGGED

[mts]

check and take it down, villian has 78 of clubs

lol no clue :[