panel hand - river - panel thoughts

[Bilgefisher]

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Ug...well now that I am in this pickle. I will bet the river. Its the only real chance of winning this hand. You have to hope they fold. I just don't like that raise on the turn. This hand is a prime example of a hand that can get out of control costing you many BB on a weak holding.

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this is really saddening that you expect the only way to win this hand is by bluffing, and that the only reason you're betting the river here is to bluff out a better hand. first of all, no one in the world would ever possibly fold a better hand to you here. second of all, why do you think people dont bet less than top pair on the flop or turn?

i remember when you were watching me play you were giving me the same kind of vibe. now obviously since i play shorthanded games exclusively, i will be more aware of spots where players will be more aggressive with weaker hands. also, since i play shorthanded, i will take the "bad in every way shape or form" read to mean not only bad at calling in the wrong places, but also donking with mediocre hands and then getting to showdown with them. saying that "the only way to win this hand is by betting" is just completely wrong. there is absolutely zero chance that betting wins this hand for us, and there is a good chance that betting wins one extra bet for us. why do you think people are suggesting to value bet?

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Something I gotta learn I guess. In my eyes, I see a weak player betting into my preflop raise (on the flop)with nothing less then top pair. If he is betting noticing that I could have missed the flop, he may be more aware then he is given credit for.
This is why I don't like to raise the turn with a marginal holding against 2 opponents. When the river misses me, I feel like I almost need to bet to continue showing strength and hope for a fold.

I understand your point that he most certainly will call with a better holding, but do you think he folds frequently or calls frequently with a worse hand? If he is more likely to fold with a worse hand and call with a better hand, then our best bet is to check behind, thus saving 1 bb. If he will call no matter what he has, whats the better line?

[btspider]

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for any panel member who suggested calling the turn, but betting for value here.. i think that analysis is inconsistent

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i don't see an inconsistency at all. the panel is reviewing "your" hand, one street at a time. They advised you to call the turn, not raise. But you ignored them and raised. Now that they have that information, based on the way you played your hand to this point, they are now advising you to take this line on the river.

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exactly.. evaluate each street on its merits.

what i'm saying is that to call the turn you have the best hand < X%.

to call the river you need to have the best hand > 55%.

i don't think its possible for the extra info to change the turn evaluation of X% to > 55% b/c a large portion of his range (which prevents us from raising the turn) is Jx hands which will call our turn raise and check the river.

[VickreyAuction]

How is this a good place for a free showdown raise exactly? We're not folding out a better hand, we're not charging EMP to draw (what draw could he have? KQ?) and I'm pretty sure we can't fold to a 3-bet, getting 10-1.

And why isn't anything about the free showdown raise in the Wikia thing?

[train.]

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for any panel member who suggested calling the turn, but betting for value here.. i think that analysis is inconsistent

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i don't see an inconsistency at all. the panel is reviewing "your" hand, one street at a time. They advised you to call the turn, not raise. But you ignored them and raised. Now that they have that information, based on the way you played your hand to this point, they are now advising you to take this line on the river.

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exactly.. evaluate each street on its merits.

what i'm saying is that to call the turn you have the best hand < X%.

to call the river you need to have the best hand > 55%.

i don't think its possible for the extra info to change the turn evaluation of X% to > 55% b/c a large portion of his range (which prevents us from raising the turn) is Jx hands which will call our turn raise and check the river.

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what i'm saying is forget the panel's turn analysis. it's two completely seperate problems.

[btspider]

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Something I gotta learn I guess. In my eyes, I see a weak player betting into my preflop raise (on the flop)with nothing less then top pair. If he is betting noticing that I could have missed the flop, he may be more aware then he is given credit for.
This is why I don't like to raise the turn with a marginal holding against 2 opponents. When the river misses me, I feel like I almost need to bet to continue showing strength and hope for a fold.

I understand your point that he most certainly will call with a better holding, but do you think he folds frequently or calls frequently with a worse hand? If he is more likely to fold with a worse hand and call with a better hand, then our best bet is to check behind, thus saving 1 bb. If he will call no matter what he has, whats the better line?

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i think most here will say (given the read in the first post):

- he'll never fold a better hand to a river bet.
- he'll always call 7x and quite likely any pair

[milesdyson]

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for any panel member who suggested calling the turn, but betting for value here.. i think that analysis is inconsistent

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i don't see an inconsistency at all. the panel is reviewing "your" hand, one street at a time. They advised you to call the turn, not raise. But you ignored them and raised. Now that they have that information, based on the way you played your hand to this point, they are now advising you to take this line on the river.

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exactly.. evaluate each street on its merits.

what i'm saying is that to call the turn you have the best hand < X%.

to call the river you need to have the best hand > 55%.

i don't think its possible for the extra info to change the turn evaluation of X% to > 55% b/c a large portion of his range (which prevents us from raising the turn) is Jx hands which will call our turn raise and check the river.

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what i'm saying is forget the panel's turn analysis. it's two completely seperate problems.

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and what bt is saying is those of you who said to CALL the turn are saying that villain's hand range changes a ton given the turn bet/call and the river check. he's saying this is inconsistent, and i agree with him. if you thought we should just call the turn you should also think we should check the river even though we raised the turn.

[train.]

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for any panel member who suggested calling the turn, but betting for value here.. i think that analysis is inconsistent

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i don't see an inconsistency at all. the panel is reviewing "your" hand, one street at a time. They advised you to call the turn, not raise. But you ignored them and raised. Now that they have that information, based on the way you played your hand to this point, they are now advising you to take this line on the river.

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exactly.. evaluate each street on its merits.

what i'm saying is that to call the turn you have the best hand < X%.

to call the river you need to have the best hand > 55%.

i don't think its possible for the extra info to change the turn evaluation of X% to > 55% b/c a large portion of his range (which prevents us from raising the turn) is Jx hands which will call our turn raise and check the river.

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what i'm saying is forget the panel's turn analysis. it's two completely seperate problems.

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and what bt is saying is those of you who said to CALL the turn are saying that villain's hand range changes a ton given the turn bet/call and the river check. he's saying this is inconsistent, and i agree with him. if you thought we should just call the turn you should also think we should check the river even though we raised the turn.

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i give. i said fold the turn. how does that reconcile w/me betting the river.

edit: no, i don't give yet. let's say you post this hand in it's entirety. my response is, I think you should've just called the turn bet. But since you think you have to protect your hand and have enough equity to raise the turn, you should definately bet the river for value.

now i give. fire away.

[btspider]

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for any panel member who suggested calling the turn, but betting for value here.. i think that analysis is inconsistent

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i don't see an inconsistency at all. the panel is reviewing "your" hand, one street at a time. They advised you to call the turn, not raise. But you ignored them and raised. Now that they have that information, based on the way you played your hand to this point, they are now advising you to take this line on the river.

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exactly.. evaluate each street on its merits.

what i'm saying is that to call the turn you have the best hand < X%.

to call the river you need to have the best hand > 55%.

i don't think its possible for the extra info to change the turn evaluation of X% to > 55% b/c a large portion of his range (which prevents us from raising the turn) is Jx hands which will call our turn raise and check the river.

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what i'm saying is forget the panel's turn analysis. it's two completely seperate problems.

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you can't just forget your prior analysis. you might reevaluate your analysis and admit you were wrong earlier.. but it would generally take aggression (or folding) to expand your prior range for villian. given villian's expected action of call turn, check river, you should only be able to narrow his range from the turn to the river. if call-check makes you expand his range, you made an error in his turn range.

the panel members declining the turn raise chose their hand to be best below X% of the time. yes, we have more information, but they also firmly believed in the < X% figure. that new information must carry us to the >= 55% figure through the narrowing of villian's range (and the elimination of UTG).

[Shillx]

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for any panel member who suggested calling the turn, but betting for value here.. i think that analysis is inconsistent

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i don't see an inconsistency at all. the panel is reviewing "your" hand, one street at a time. They advised you to call the turn, not raise. But you ignored them and raised. Now that they have that information, based on the way you played your hand to this point, they are now advising you to take this line on the river.

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exactly.. evaluate each street on its merits.

what i'm saying is that to call the turn you have the best hand < X%.

to call the river you need to have the best hand > 55%.

i don't think its possible for the extra info to change the turn evaluation of X% to > 55% b/c a large portion of his range (which prevents us from raising the turn) is Jx hands which will call our turn raise and check the river.

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what i'm saying is forget the panel's turn analysis. it's two completely seperate problems.

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and what bt is saying is those of you who said to CALL the turn are saying that villain's hand range changes a ton given the turn bet/call and the river check. he's saying this is inconsistent, and i agree with him. if you thought we should just call the turn you should also think we should check the river even though we raised the turn.

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Let me give you a better example. The 1st one sucked.

Say that your hero has QQ on a board of AT63r. The pot is 9BB and your lone opponent bets into. You suggest that he folds yet he calls. Then the river comes 2 and he is about to fold to a bet until he hears you yelling at him to call. Is this inconsistant?

The reasoning behind this hand is that you have to call the river when you call the turn. It is a package deal. It is the same in the QT hand. Raising the turn and betting the river are not independant events. If you aren't going to bet the river, don't raise the turn. Just like you shouldn't call the turn with QQ in the hand above if you are only going to call the river if you improve. Hope that makes more sense.

[drzen]

Bet for value. He hasn't got enough value for his pair of jacks yet.