QQ hand as big stack - please comment

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way you can lay down QQ in this situation. Neither of you are deep enough to not play premium hands aggressively.

[/ QUOTE ] Sure you can, if you think it is a -EV situation. My calculations indicate that you will lose about 4k if you push preflop.

Let's say that his range is JJ+, AKo, AKs, as several have stated. Let’s also throw in a small number of worse hands.

First off, let's figure out how often someone would have these particular hands and reraise UTG. I would say that AA and KK reraise 95% of the time. QQ reraises 90% of the time. JJ reraises 60% of the time. TT reraises 5% of the time. AKo or AKs reraises 60% of the time. AQ reraises 2% of the time. Does that sound reasonable?

There are 12 combinations of AA and KK. 12*.95=11.4
There is 1 combination of QQ. 1*.9=0.9
There are 6 combinations of JJ. 6*.6=3.6
There are 6 combinations of TT. 6*.05 = 0.3
There are 16 combinations of AK. 16*.6=9.6
There are 16 combinations of AQ. 16*.02 = 0.3
Total: 11.4 + 0.9 + 3.6 + 0.3 + 9.6 + 0.3 = 26.1

Based on these calculations, you are facing:
AA or KK = 43.7% of the time
QQ = 3.4%
JJ = 13.8%
TT = 1.1%
AK = 36.8%
AQ = 1.1%

Those numbers strike me as reasonable. Multiplying these amounts by the average number of chips you win or lose will let you know whether it is profitable or not: By my calculations, on average you are losing 4k chips. And this is assuming that TT and AQ call your all-in reraise every time. if TT and AQ fold, as allenciox suggests, then your average losses increase greatly

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
I think his range for the initial raise might be broader than stated here, perhaps TT+, AQs+,AKo.

[/ QUOTE ] But he's not as likely to have TT as he is to have AA, even though there are 6 combos of each.

[Swami54]

I would fold here. Someone mentioned that he could not FT with his chip stack. Why not? He folds and still has an M around 20. He raises and the other big stack reraises. Sure it could be a great play knowing that you don't want to tangle with another big stack. With no reads on the big stack I think it's difficult to push. You would assume (yes I know) that the big stack realizes the stack that could hurt him put in a raise from UTG. The EV margin seems too close for me. With the fold you also get to see if this guy is an idiot raising you with some crap.

[Nez477]

In a $10 tourney without reads, there is no way that you cannot add 99 and AJ and the like into his range.

This hand is simply a range hand. Nothing else is really in questions. So if you put him in such a tight range, then fold. But I think that range is incorrect.

And there is no reason at all to put down the results, as now those who said fold feel like they made the correct move.

As for JMC's analysis, why in the world are we assigning different percentages to each hand in his range? Are we just assuming that he sees TT and something goes off in his head that says "Eh, this time I'll reraise but 80% I'd just call"?

I think that's flawed. If he reraises with a certain range, that's simply the range we play against.

Brad

[DemonDeac]

call the reraise and play poker with ~50BBs a piece

reads make this hand alot easier
reads on villain AND on you

[Frank Zappy]

It's likely the new guy read you for a bully and is standing up to you.

I'd Push.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
NOT seeing an A or K on the flop (which is likely to be the case) swings the math solidly in our favor.

[/ QUOTE ] If villian has AA, flop will not have A or K 67% of the time. If villian has KK, flop will not have A or K 67% of the time. If villian has AK, flop will not have A or K 67% of the time.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]

As for JMC's analysis, why in the world are we assigning different percentages to each hand in his range? Are we just assuming that he sees TT and something goes off in his head that says "Eh, this time I'll reraise but 80% I'd just call"?

I think that's flawed. If he reraises with a certain range, that's simply the range we play against.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ] So you think TT or 99 is just as likely as AA or KK?

Just because PokerStove doesn't allow you to enter percentages for a likely hand means that that's the way you should do it in all cases. In this case, I think it is a huge mistake to add 99 or TT to the mix and assume that they are just as likely as KK or AA.

[mlagoo]

jcm,

i often find myself disagreeing with you, but you bring a lot to the forum. just wanted to say that. hope you keep posting.

[Moose747]

[ QUOTE ]

As for JMC's analysis, why in the world are we assigning different percentages to each hand in his range? Are we just assuming that he sees TT and something goes off in his head that says "Eh, this time I'll reraise but 80% I'd just call"?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think JMC's analysis is a worthwhile improvement over how pokerstove works, and I'd love to see pokerstove updated to be able to do this type of calculation. Whether or not players are actively factoring probabilities into their decisions (game theory suggests this is a good idea) they almost certainly are regularly playing hands based on a gut feeling or some other factor that leads them to play the same hand differently at different times.