NBA Overlays - November

[rjp]

YTD: 22-15-0 (+1.80 units; ROI: 4.86%)

Orlando Magic -300

Charlotte comes into this game off a big win over San Antonio, but they’re not that good. In fact, a big win like that for a young team like Charlotte can typically be a distraction. I find value with both laying 7.5 or the money line, and in this situation I feel there is more value with laying -300 instead of -7.5.

Boston Celtics +115

New York is playing above their heads right now. Both teams come into this game off of a back to back, with New York getting a blowout win over the defending champs. This is likely to be a distraction for the Knicks, and at worst this is a 50/50 tossup. I’ll gladly take these odds with Boston given the situation.

New Orleans Hornets / Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 185 (+100)

This game is likely to be played at a slow pace, with the true odds being ~180. Not a huge overlay, but one that provides a positive expectation over the long haul.

Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 (-112)

Memphis took a beating from Dallas at home last night, but the Mavs shouldn’t be giving up this many points to Memphis. Dallas is likely to win, but I expect Memphis to execute a game plan that gives them some sort of chance to win. Dallas isn’t likely to play as hard, either.

Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 (-104)

There are plenty of reasons to “not like” Philadelphia tonight. The Clippers are 5-0 at home, Philadelphia got torched in Phoenix last night, and the 76ers are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. In reality, however, it seems the 76ers took last night off after finding out that Nash would be sitting out. Phoenix played with much more intensity, and Philadelphia wasn’t ready for it. Tonight, however, the 76ers won’t be playing as soft, and they’ll be motivated to end this road trip on a good note. Philadelphia is likely to lose, but they should more often than not cover 9.5 points.

[rjp]

YTD: 26-16-0 (+4.13 units; ROI: 9.83%)

Not many good spots tonight. Might be able to get a pretty good price with Golden State if Baron is out.

Houston Rockets -174

This is a game that would usually create a situation in which the Rockets overlook the Knicks, but thanks to another 4th quarter collapse in Detroit, the Rockets will likely be motivated to get the monkey off their backs, so to speak, and New York is the perfect team to do just that.

I figure the Rockets win this game often enough to be both profitable laying the points or this price, but I figure more value to be with the Rockets at -174.

[rjp]

Dallas Mavericks -180

I stayed off this due to the questionable status of Stackhouse (I didn't think he'd play), and the Bobcats are likely to have more motivation than the Mavericks tonight. Stackhouse, however, is going to play and the Mavs should win this game plenty often enough to prove profitable at this price. I don't, however, suggest laying points.

[rjp]

YTD: 28-16-0 (+5.26 units; ROI: 11.95%)

Detroit Pistons -2.5 (-105)

The 76ers might be without Webber and/or Hunter in this game, but it really doesn’t matter. Detroit is starting to come together with a focus on team defense, they’re starting to figure out how to play without Wallace, and they are the better team. The 76ers will likely have the tough loss @LA in the back of their minds, so there’s a good chance Detroit will be more focused. I expect Detroit to win often to have a positive expectation with laying the 2.5 points.

New Orleans Hornets -4.5 (-105)

Miami is a team that seems to be on cruise control until Shaq gets back. This team seems to have serious issues focusing, and tonight is another game in which they’ll likely play with less intensity than their opponent.

Miami has San Antonio coming up next, and they will likely have an emotional letdown after beating Atlanta (funny to be saying this, I know, but they had just been embarassed at home by the Knicks). New Orleans has been playing pretty good ball, especially at home, and they will likely be very focused on beating the “defending champs”, if you will.

[Chickenfly69]

I think Philly is without Iverson because of his tooth

[rjp]

URL? Everything I've read hasn't mentioned anything about it. I know Iverson has had some tooth issues, but he played through them in two games so far.

[rjp]

Found it: http://www.tsn.ca/nba/news_story/?ID...mp;hubname=nba

[laserboy]

Thanks for the updates. I got a 6 unit bet in on the Pistons -2 (-109). I can get a reasonable middle on the Sixers +3.5 right now, but I am thinking of just letting it ride.

I have watched the Sixers a bit this year and they are really horrible. There is absolutely no one on that team that can create their own shot other than AI, there is a good reason he is taking like half their shots. I really can't fathom how they will compete without him. Frankly I am thinking there is still a lot of value in the bet at Pistons -3.5.

The only thing I am really worried about is that AI recovers from trip to the dentist(!) by gametime and suits up. What do you all think?

[rjp]

At this point it has to do with the emotional affects of not having AI. Will the Pistons let down? Will the 76ers be motivated to play hard without AI?

The likely scenario is a combination of both, but in the end the Pistons should win this game often enough to cover the number.

[rjp]

YTD: 30-16-0 (+7.16 units; ROI: 15.57%)

Miami Heat +10.5 (-107)

Tonight Miami has a reason to play with some intensity: they were blown out last night, and they face a top team in the Spurs tonight. Even without Shaq Miami has capable talent. They’re not the best team, obviously, but they can manage their own. I expect Miami to play with more focus tonight against the Spurs, and while the Spurs will likely win the Heat are likely to cover 10.5 points.

New Orleans Hornets +9 (+102)

New Orleans got a big win over Miami last night, and so their focus for tonight’s game is in question. Phoenix, however, has been up and down so far this year, while New Orleans hasn’t been a slouch. I figure most of the value in this line comes from the perception that the Suns will run the Hornets to death tonight. The Suns will run, but they aren’t likely to cover 9 points.

New Jersey Nets -160

New Jersey was embarrassed at home against Portland, but they’ve got Jefferson back and motivation to play better. Portland isn’t a very good team, and thanks to recent play a good price can be had with the Nets. I feel there is more value with taking the money line instead of laying the points, but I figure both to be profitable propositions.