650BB down swing for a winning player?

[Spy Dog]

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My overall win rate at Party 10/20 6max is around 3BB/100 over 500,000 hands which includes this nasty 650BB down swing.

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Why wouldn't you be playing 30/60, 50/100, or 100/200 if you can crush the measly 10/20 for so much?

[pfkaok]

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My overall win rate at Party 10/20 6max is around 3BB/100 over 500,000 hands which includes this nasty 650BB down swing.

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well, over a 20k hand stretch this is even more amazing, since you're actually like 1250 BB's below what you "should" have won over that period. thats like 3-4 standard deviations territory, so it is once in a lifetime type thing. what is your SD/100 hands?

although, its quite possible that you underestimated the amount of tilt/suboptimal play. its REALLY hard to judge that stuff accurately. if you were able to still keep up even close to your 3 BB/100 play during that period then that is truly remarkable, as most people's play would probably deteriorate quite a bit going through a run like that.

[fyodor]

I am not as winning a player as you but when I did the math on my 525 BB downswing last December it came out to about a once every 10 year thing given the amount of hands I was playing.

I think at the time I handled it comparitively well but no where close to perfectly. The experience made life a lot easier for me since.

[sxb]

I hate the variance. Think about it, if I could drop $13,000 in 10/20 6max with 3bb/100 win rate, how much more I could lose at 30/60, 50/100, 100/200 with lower win rate?

I tried moving up before and had pretty bad experiences. I had my first and only session of party 15/30 about year ago, I lost $3600 in only 300 hands. In May this year, I tried 3 sessions of 30/60 and lost $2000. Since I'm making very good money at 10/20 6max without much variance, I guess it's better for me to stay at this lever for now. Overall I had 4 down swings over 200BB in 10/20 6max, 200BB, 220BB, 245BB and this nasty 650BB last July.

By the way, I'm datamining the new Party 20/40 game right now. Looks like it's a very juicy game, I'm going to try it out in the near future. Anyone has some insight in that 20/40 games?

[railed]

your 3.00bb/100 winrate pumped by the juicy games of the last couple years is most likely not going to sustain itself going forward imo..this downswing is just a nasty reminder of that...you ok with 2.00-2.50 bb/100 or most likely 1.50b/100? it may be inevitable

rather than assuming this is just a bad run I would posit that your games are no longer of the same quality and you need to make some adjustments..in other words you've seen the best of your winrate get ready for less facile games which intail a lower earn and a higher sd.

People like to assume that game conditions stay static-wrong...big extended downswings or crappy results from larger samples dont mean you are running bad necesarily it must likely means for 90% of posters that you are a losing or break-even player at this limit...

Given your great track record sounds to me like you are running bad and playing bad. Without constant adjustments to your game amidst tougher games the natural tendency of earn rate is to fall gradually--that's whats happening. Any online pro that doesnt recognize that games continue to get tougher is not in touch with reality and his bankroll and livelihhod is at risk. Be aware of changing game conditions...

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I am not as winning a player as you but when I did the math on my 525 BB downswing last December it came out to about a once every 10 year thing given the amount of hands I was playing.

I think at the time I handled it comparitively well but no where close to perfectly. The experience made life a lot easier for me since.

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Crap, I was down 200BB and was dissapointed enough to lose my motivation. I'm about a 2.75BB/100 over .25/.50 through 3/6 at this point (oddly, my rate has always been almost exactly the same at every level).

I've made back 100BB of the -200 now, but because I play so few hands relative to you guys (about 8-10k/month) these down streaks seem to last forever. And the prospect of digging out of one to get back to "even" gets so daunting it's demotivating.

I can hardly even imagine a 400BB downswing. Between going down and working back up, it'd be a 6-7 month trip. Depressing thought [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[MicroBob]

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Why wouldn't you be playing 30/60, 50/100, or 100/200 if you can crush the measly 10/20 for so much?

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sxb already answered this...but seriously, you are asking this question after looking at that graph?
isn't the answer self-evident?

[RunDownHouse]

Just so you know, ckessel, I'm in the exact same boat. I play maybe 10k/mo, and right now I'm in a breakeven stretch that's lasted almost that many hands. I just lose motivation and pretty much have to block out time to "force" myself to play.

[_Z_]

I've been thinking about how high I eventually want to play, since I think I will make my main game 10/20 short within a few months.

I probably won't ever regularly play higher than 10/20. 4 tabling I feel I can strive for $200/hr including rakeback (not that I'll necessarily be able to hit that), which is awesome, and the fact that the downswings will almost always be less than $10K is very appealing.

ZZZ

[Josh.]

all a 650 BB downswing is is 2 325 BB downswings in succession, or 3 217 BB downswings in succession, and so on. so it's possible though I agree with everyone else that you were probably not playing as well as the rest of the time