50NL; KhQh on 8hJhAs board gets raised

[hennnerz]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you should bet this flop unless you are betting it so that you can b3bai in this scenario. Otherwise, just check flop because a 4-way CB on an A-hi flop is pretty murky. Maybe c/r ai in certain scenarios.

if hero's gonna bet/call, he might as well just c/c.

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally agree with this.

[Dumle]

Just push it. Its not even a pot-sized raise and you got probably around 40% equity. Everytime he folds, you get some free sklansky bux. So, bet it in.

Dumle

[Sean Fraley]

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Yea...I need to do some math about exactly how oftne he needs to fold to make pushing prfitable. Just intuitively though I don't think he folds enough. Can't do it now....gotta go but I'll try later.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK assuming no fold equity and 40% pot equity this is really tight.

on the flop the pot is $8 and effective stacks are $45. We bet 5 and are raised 18. We have effectively 40 behind and villain will not fold so assuming that we push villain calls 100% . We are risking $40 for a final pot of $100. That is exactly the pot equity we said we have. So depending on our stove numbers and our villains range this is either +EV or -EV depending.

I think it could still be marginally +EV because I am not sure that I accept villain has no Fold Equity. I might fold top pair if I were villain and I was pushed into after reraising like this to protect against the FD.

+EV

[/ QUOTE ]

We don't need that much fold equity to make a profit here. Assuming that villain is raising with nothing worse than AT we need 7% fold equity to breakeven in an unraked pot. Lets add another 5% to that to account for the rake (I realize that this is a kludge, if someone can tell me a better way to adjust for rake in equity calculations I would appreciate it) and we need villain to fold only 12% of the time to make shoving breakeven.

[Jouster777]

I think this is a good spot to cbet multiway and I don't see why we would only do it with the goal of getting it all in if raised. After 2 checks we have reasonable FE from the cbet and the majority of time when we don't get all folds we only face a call so we go into the turn with the initiative and a decent combo draw now somewhat hidden.

Of course the worst scenario unfolded and we face a full potsized RR. I think we can reevaluate at this point based on the size of the raise and based on the villain we are up against to figure out if we will fold/call/push. Against this villain and in this situation I think I fold it.

If we had just c/c'd on the flop we'd be calling a psb on the flop and then playing a low implied odds combo draw oop and wishing we had raised.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you should bet this flop unless you are betting it so that you can b3bai in this scenario. Otherwise, just check flop because a 4-way CB on an A-hi flop is pretty murky. Maybe c/r ai in certain scenarios.

if hero's gonna bet/call, he might as well just c/c.

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Yeah, this is what I was going to say. The bet 3-bet doesn't seem great to me because I don't expect much in the way of folding equity, since the c/r shows a lot of interest and he'll be on the side getting a decent price to call. I'd probably c/r this flop, the one downside to that being that if it just gets called we're in a weird spot on blank turns.

[Dumle]

Ok, I crunched some numbers and we need some FE, but I got it at about 3%, assuming 40% equity if called. Here's the math:

x = FE

31x + (1 - x)*(0.4*59 - 0.6*41) = 0
31x + 23.6 - 23.6x - 24.6 + 24.6x = 0
32x = 1
x = 1/32 = 0.031

Did you calculate with another equity Sean?

Dumle

[Sean Fraley]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I crunched some numbers and we need some FE, but I got it at about 3%, assuming 40% equity if called. Here's the math:

x = FE

31x + (1 - x)*(0.4*59 - 0.6*41) = 0
31x + 23.6 - 23.6x - 24.6 + 24.6x = 0
32x = 1
x = 1/32 = 0.031

Did you calculate with another equity Sean?

Dumle

[/ QUOTE ]

I put it in PokerStove with villain on a range of AJo+, AJs+ AA, JJ, 88, A8s, and A8o. The great thing about PokerStove is that it also makes sure you factor in the times that villain has a better draw or fills up by showdown. As far as fold equity, if you use Dan Harrington's rule that anytime a player makes a decent raise there is at least a 10% chance that they are bluffing, and add to this another 10% chance that villain will not be willing to call all-in with his hand, we have more than the 13% fold equity I estimate we need to turn a profit by shoving here.

EDIT: Basically I assume that there is always a 10% chance a players bet is a bluff, and therefore we always have that much fold equity if we shove. I also assume that unless we have a read from previous experience that says villain either:

A) Only makes non-bluff raises with the nuts or some other hand he feels is strong enough to never fold it on this round or

B) will never fold with any made hand or AK

We always have at least 10% fold equity against them.

The combination of these two is why I always assume at least 20% fold equity against most villains.

[ajmargarine]

You guys are probably misunderestimitating the times villian has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Dumle]

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Quote:
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Ok, I crunched some numbers and we need some FE, but I got it at about 3%, assuming 40% equity if called. Here's the math:

x = FE

31x + (1 - x)*(0.4*59 - 0.6*41) = 0
31x + 23.6 - 23.6x - 24.6 + 24.6x = 0
32x = 1
x = 1/32 = 0.031

Did you calculate with another equity Sean?

Dumle


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I put it in PokerStove with villain on a range of AJo+, AJs+ AA, JJ, 88, A8s, and A8o. The great thing about PokerStove is that it also makes sure you factor in the times that villain has a better draw or fills up by showdown. As far as fold equity, if you use Dan Harrington's rule that anytime a player makes a decent raise there is at least a 10% chance that they are bluffing, and add to this another 10% chance that villain will not be willing to call all-in with his hand, we have more than the 13% fold equity I estimate we need to turn a profit by shoving here.

[/ QUOTE ]

And with that range on villain, we have about 40% equity. And according to my math above, we only need him to fold 3% in order for an all-in to be profitable. How did you get 13%?

Dumle

[Sean Fraley]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
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Ok, I crunched some numbers and we need some FE, but I got it at about 3%, assuming 40% equity if called. Here's the math:

x = FE

31x + (1 - x)*(0.4*59 - 0.6*41) = 0
31x + 23.6 - 23.6x - 24.6 + 24.6x = 0
32x = 1
x = 1/32 = 0.031

Did you calculate with another equity Sean?

Dumle


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I put it in PokerStove with villain on a range of AJo+, AJs+ AA, JJ, 88, A8s, and A8o. The great thing about PokerStove is that it also makes sure you factor in the times that villain has a better draw or fills up by showdown. As far as fold equity, if you use Dan Harrington's rule that anytime a player makes a decent raise there is at least a 10% chance that they are bluffing, and add to this another 10% chance that villain will not be willing to call all-in with his hand, we have more than the 13% fold equity I estimate we need to turn a profit by shoving here.

[/ QUOTE ]

And with that range on villain, we have about 40% equity. And according to my math above, we only need him to fold 3% in order for an all-in to be profitable. How did you get 13%?

Dumle

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If if did my math correctly we are putting in 47% of the pot, which means that we need another 7% fold equity over our chance of winning to break even in an unraked pot. The other 5% is put there to represent what we need to win in this hand to keep ahead of the rake, and makes a necessary 12% to break even. The additional 1% added to make 13% is simply there to represent turning a minimal profit.