4 bet semi bluff vs. Esfandiari - Page 3

Ansky · #21 10-05-2006, 01:09 PM

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hes calling tight... like 99/AQ i'd be surprised to see call (they might if he has a 'read' or w/e). I like the shove w/ given info...

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durrr do you expect a player like antonio to be raising mid strength hands w/ the intention of folding to a push here? hands like 88 and AJ and such.

mornelth · #22 10-05-2006, 01:13 PM

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And fwiw I wasn't actually an internet qualifier, I bought in, but I just think most ppl assume that all the young internet players were satellite qualifiers-- which is why I mentioned it.

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I didn't say you were, I was just putting me(us) in Esfandiari's place...

Sorry about the math, I'm a former [censored] math/CS major who can't add for [carebear]... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

You didn't answer the main question (and I guess it's the WHOLE POINT of the entire post) - what % of hands does Esfandiari re-raise/folds in this spot.

I have no clue. Or, rather, my guess is probably so far off that I'm better off throwing a dart at a percentage chart and going with whatever it hits...

bestcellar · #23 10-05-2006, 01:13 PM

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If you haven't pushed before like this, every Ax folds here

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What are you considering x here?

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anything lower than J.

Ansky · #24 10-05-2006, 01:18 PM

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You didn't answer the main question (and I guess it's the WHOLE POINT of the entire post) - what % of hands does Esfandiari re-raise/folds in this spot.

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If only poker were so easy.

mornelth · #25 10-05-2006, 01:20 PM

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You didn't answer the main question (and I guess it's the WHOLE POINT of the entire post) - what % of hands does Esfandiari re-raise/folds in this spot.

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If only poker were so easy.

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You mean it's not???

[carebear] this, I QUIT!

bestcellar · #26 10-05-2006, 01:24 PM

FWIW, I'm expecting Ansky pushed, got called by a wider range than expected and didn't realize esfandiari was as committed as he ended up being even with marginal hands

Superfluous Man · #27 10-05-2006, 01:26 PM

I vaguely remember posting a hand where I did roughly the same thing against MrSmokey1 in a $109r (albeit with J9s) and you called it a spew. In fact, I went and looked up the thread and it's here. The stacks are similar, and the histories are kind of similar, in that both of our opponents have used their stack to get us out of pots. There are a few differences, like I was probably playing tighter in that $109r than you were in Aruba, MrSmokey1 is probably better than Esfandiari, there are no live tells and [censored] like that on the internets, and you're raising/he's 3-banging from earlier position.

To be honest, I liked my raise a lot then, even if that meant disagreeing with your analysis. I'm not so sure I like your raise as much as I liked mine (cause it's MINE ALL MINE obv), but there are a few other reasons. Mainly, the position thing.

Anyway, to answer the questions...

1) I expect him to fold stuff like AJ, or maybe 77, but is he really reraising with those from the HJ or CO or wherever he's at? He's never folding 88+. He might fold AQ, but I seriously doubt it; he's never folding AK.

2) This is really the meat of the issue, I'd say maybe 20%. Maybe it's even lower, as repopping with air from the CO or HJ has got to be a lot less common than repopping from the button or the blinds. I'm not saying that Antonio's incapable of it, but it seems much less likely that he's doing it from this position.

3) Not at all.

All that said, I think this 4-bet has a decent shot at working, in that he's folding a lot of hands that are slightly ahead (or even dominating you, like KJ-QJ), and you're rarely going to be a huge dog when called. You also only have like 35 BBs, and gambooling here can't be too bad a thing if it will get you to a stack you can use much more effectively. Overall, I still like the 4-bet here, though folding is OK too I guess.

betgo · #28 10-05-2006, 01:27 PM

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FWIW, I'm expecting Ansky pushed, got called by a wider range than expected and didn't realize esfandiari was as committed as he ended up being even with marginal hands

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Seems pretty obvious from the initial post. I assume that Esfandiari calls with a lot.

Remember Hansen's call against Esfandiari with T9s against 77 in a similar situation.

FortunaMaximus · #29 10-05-2006, 01:27 PM

Burn it and turn it. Come on.

sirtimo · #30 10-05-2006, 01:34 PM

1) What is the best hand that you expect Antonio to fold if I shove?

Ax where x >=8. I think he calls you with most small pairs even.

2) How often do you expect Antonio to be raising me with air again?

Hard to say based on 1 previous shown bluff. would guess >50%

3) Do you expect Antonio to feel pot comitted with Ax?

No, guessing he was though