WCCOP Razz - defend against a LAG

[betgo]

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I've had some interesting conversations with friends after reading this thread. I went from thinking I made a huge mistake calling on 4th to thinking its so marginally close that calling isn't bad. One tourny pro who is an excellent shorthanded limit Hold'em player thinks I am nuts now and therefore I must suck at poker, another said at first look he would have folded but after seeing the equity analysis he calls 3rd to re-evaluate on 4th (and he is a fantastic tourny player). Most everyone seems to like how I played 4th street an onwards. To invest 2/3 of a SB to see if your an equity fav on 4th vs an opponent who will keep firing because thats what he always does, it might be a good opportunity to double up when I am so short stacked.

I have to say this might be the most interesting hand i have played all month, and when i posted it I didn't even realize how interesting it would become. Mathematically the call is correct in a cash game (which in hindsight kind of surprises me since I didn't realize how dead my outs were)... I now think the jury is still out in a tourny.

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Huh, no way this is good in a cash game. Your cards are so dead, and you are at a significant disadvantage because he knows your cards and you don't know his. The fact that you may be ahead versus his average hand doesn't make it a good call.

In a tournament, this is closer with you both short stacked. You are getting significant pot odds, since someone is going to be allin before the hand is over.

[RustyBrooks]

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What kind of stats would villain need in order to place (KK)5 in his range?


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Honestly I don't think it's a stats issue, unless you keep stats on steal attempts from 1 and off the bringin (and I mean low cards, not seats, between you and the bringin). Some people raise so frequently first in, in a situation like that, that their range could almost anything. I think it was you who brought up frequencies a player will have a 3-card hand given a good up-card. If the bet about that much in that situation you can figure their range is a 3-card low hand. If they bet more, extend that to 3 card nines and 2-wheel-or-six card hands, if they bet more, etc. I'd have to break out the calculator to figure out how to translate steal percentages into hand ranges but generally I just think of it as... he raises too much, about right, or not enough.

Edit: I guess what I mean is that some players, tight or loose, have the balls/idiocy/whatever to bet with KK5 there, and some don't, I don't think it's tied to vpip although it's loosely tied to PFR. Just like in any poker game some people steal more than they should.

[*TT*]

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What kind of stats would villain need in order to place (KK)5 in his range?


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Honestly I don't think it's a stats issue, unless you keep stats on steal attempts from 1 and off the bringin (and I mean low cards, not seats, between you and the bringin).

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if your not, you should. I make notes mid-game about nearly every steal hand, and also note the likely range over a period of time.

[RustyBrooks]

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In a tournament, this is closer with you both short stacked. You are getting significant pot odds, since someone is going to be allin before the hand is over.

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If someone is going to be all in, you're getting just a little better than 1:1. Is that good? You're between a 3:2 and a 2:1 dog. Granted in a tournament a 40% chance to double up when you're really short is worth something.

[RustyBrooks]

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if your not, you should. I make notes mid-game about nearly every steal hand, and also note the likely range over a period of time.

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Although I often complain that 1/2 and below is much maligned on these boards regarding player quality, there is one thing to be said for it - there are not many opportunities to steal, nor many opportunities to defend. So, yeah, I don't keep good notes of stealing percentages.

[*TT*]

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I've had some interesting conversations with friends after reading this thread. I went from thinking I made a huge mistake calling on 4th to thinking its so marginally close that calling isn't bad. One tourny pro who is an excellent shorthanded limit Hold'em player thinks I am nuts now and therefore I must suck at poker, another said at first look he would have folded but after seeing the equity analysis he calls 3rd to re-evaluate on 4th (and he is a fantastic tourny player). Most everyone seems to like how I played 4th street an onwards. To invest 2/3 of a SB to see if your an equity fav on 4th vs an opponent who will keep firing because thats what he always does, it might be a good opportunity to double up when I am so short stacked.

I have to say this might be the most interesting hand i have played all month, and when i posted it I didn't even realize how interesting it would become. Mathematically the call is correct in a cash game (which in hindsight kind of surprises me since I didn't realize how dead my outs were)... I now think the jury is still out in a tourny.

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Huh, no way this is good in a cash game. Your cards are so dead, and you are at a significant disadvantage because he knows your cards and you don't know his. The fact that you may be ahead versus his average hand doesn't make it a good call.

In a tournament, this is closer with you both short stacked. You are getting significant pot odds, since someone is going to be allin before the hand is over.

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betgo - In a cash game with the exact same structure getting better than 4:1 I am calling, I will win on the next street often enough and when we both improve I can re-evaluate the hand eqity and determine what to do from there. Its close.... but I call. As the Badugi guy with numbers in front of his name pointed out 'Either calling on third is a big mistake, or folding fourth is".

In closing keep in mind even i am surprised about the equity my hand holds, I didn't realize how dead the cards were when I played it (head turned, tilt, who knows). Even with the fear of reverse domination it is a +EV decision.

[*TT*]

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if your not, you should. I make notes mid-game about nearly every steal hand, and also note the likely range over a period of time.

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Although I often complain that 1/2 and below is much maligned on these boards regarding player quality, there is one thing to be said for it - there are not many opportunities to steal, nor many opportunities to defend. So, yeah, I don't keep good notes of stealing percentages.

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Part of the problem is the structure itself, the blind/ante ratio is so high that it encourages defense in the micro-limit games. Do an analysis between your limit and 5/10 to see what I mean.

[RustyBrooks]

Is the ante lower at 5/10? I haven't checked. I have noticed that as you move up the bringin gets lower as a percentage of the stakes. Because of this I defend less at 1/2 than at .25/.5. The bringin at .25/.5 was .1, 20% of a bb but at 1/2 it's .20, 10% of a bb. My pot odds are much worse.

I still haven't tried playing at pokerstars, I should to get some experience with a much lower ante-bb ratio

[*TT*]

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Is the ante lower at 5/10? I haven't checked. I have noticed that as you move up the bringin gets lower as a percentage of the stakes. Because of this I defend less at 1/2 than at .25/.5. The bringin at .25/.5 was .1, 20% of a bb but at 1/2 it's .20, 10% of a bb. My pot odds are much worse.

I still haven't tried playing at pokerstars, I should to get some experience with a much lower ante-bb ratio

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I discuss this concept in detail in the first of my 3-video series at Deuces Cracked, how to adjust your game to the different structures. I also advise that until Poker Stars changes it's ante ratio I wont play Razz cash games there. IMHO you need experience playing with high antes and big pots relitive to the size of the bringin, thats where the money is.

[betgo]

SOP says to call with two live wheel cards against a raise from the last person to act with a wheel cards. In marginal situations, don't play dead cards. Your cards are about as dead as they can get.

To say you pick up the pot a lot on 4th street is irrelevant. A lot of times, you catch good, he catches bad, and he has a real hand, and you get in a bet or two and wind up tied to the hand with dead cards.