UFC 73 Thread

[Performify]

My writeup on Junkie is up. Its very, very long and detailed.

-P

[CrazyPsycho]

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My writeup on Junkie is up. Its very, very long and amazing .

-P

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Thanks for taking the time to get that deep into it. Really appreciate it.

[DannyOcean_]

The only one i disagree on the the hermes bet. I think Sherk does a great job of nuetralizing BJJ experts ala kenny florian. Even with a bad cut, he controlled the fight, and while you make the point that he didn't have overwhelming offense in that fight, florian had absolutely nothing at all. He absolutely nuetralized anything florian could do at all.

For me, sherk's size, strength, and wrestling are just too much. His fight weight is essentially 175, and not only is he a huge fighter for this division, he's 175 of incredibly freakish athleticism. If the fight streches into the 4th or 5th round, this works even more in sherk's favor because he is maybe the best conditioned MMA fighter of all time. As for being caught in a submission, sean has 36 MMA fights and has never been submitted. Hermes Franca is good, but he's not something that Sean's never seen over 36 fights. I don't want to disrespect hermes, but i have this as a small bet on sean (going by that original -230 on sherk).

[slickpoppa]

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The only one i disagree on the the hermes bet. I think Sherk does a great job of nuetralizing BJJ experts ala kenny florian. Even with a bad cut, he controlled the fight, and while you make the point that he didn't have overwhelming offense in that fight, florian had absolutely nothing at all. He absolutely nuetralized anything florian could do at all.

For me, sherk's size, strength, and wrestling are just too much. His fight weight is essentially 175, and not only is he a huge fighter for this division, he's 175 of incredibly freakish athleticism. If the fight streches into the 4th or 5th round, this works even more in sherk's favor because he is maybe the best conditioned MMA fighter of all time. As for being caught in a submission, sean has 36 MMA fights and has never been submitted. Hermes Franca is good, but he's not something that Sean's never seen over 36 fights. I don't want to disrespect hermes, but i have this as a small bet on sean (going by that original -230 on sherk).

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I agree. The only way I really see Sherk losing this fight is by guillotine choke, or maybe a well placed knee when he's is shooting. The possibility of Hermes KOing him while standing is very low in my opinion because a) This fight will not stay standing very long and b) Sherk has very good defense on his feet. Sherk's standup is very underrated. He's doesn't have much power, but he's very technical and was able to hold his own standing with GSP. His standup is good enough to setup his inevitable TDs. Hermes TD defense was weak against Varner, who is not nearly as good of a wrestler as Sherk (and yes I read Hermes' explanation on UFCjunkie that he heard Varner was mainly a striker, but that excuse only explains why he got taken down the first time). Diaz was able to stuff Sherk's TDs, but he only did so at the expense of taking an extremely defensive stance that allowed him to get outstruck by Sherk. Once the fight goes to the ground, I think the chance of Hermes subbing Sherk is really low. He rolls with BJJ blackbelts all the time, so there's nothing that Hermes is gonna do that he hasn't seen before. Sherk's excellent base and stubby, strong arms make him very difficult to sub. He's also very patient on the ground and not likely to make a dumb mistake.

Also, as some of you may already know, Sherk won the Florian fight with a torn right rotator cuff, which might partially explain why he was unable to finish.

Ultimately I see Sherk's wrestling and conditioning winning this fight by UD or a finish late in the fight once Hermes gets tired. I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict: Sherk KO (slam) Rd 4.

[Performify]

Weigh-in results from Junkie:

MAIN CARD

* Champion Anderson Silva (184.5) vs. Nate Marquardt (182.5) — for middleweight title
* Champion Sean Sherk (154.5) vs. Hermes Franca (154.5) — for lightweight title
* Rashad Evans (204) vs. Tito Ortiz (205.5)
* Heath Herring (259) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (240.5)
* Kenny Florian (155.5) vs. Alvin Robinson (156)

UNDERCARD

* Stephan Bonnar (204.5) vs. Mike Nickels (205.5)
* Jason Gilliam (171) vs. Chris Lytle (169.5)
* Jorge Gurgel (155.5) vs. Diego Saraiva (155)
* Mark Bocek (154.5) vs. Frank Edgar (154.5)

http://ufcjunkie.com/2007/07/06/offi...gh-in-results/


Marquardt is in amazing shape and very smart coming in light - quick and light is the plan...

No allowance on title fights which is another reason you see all four guys fighting for the belt Saturday come in little light.

-P

[apple11]

Hope Silva brings his A game and KO's him round 1

[MikeyPatriot]

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Hope Marquardt brings his lay and pray and wins the decision to make me money

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Sigh...I hate betting against fighters I like.

[RikaKazak]

Well I just made my first "trying to be +EV bet" on UFC...LOL

After research etc. I put a max bet on Nate Marquardt @ +130...wish this noob luck [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Performify]

For those looking for a bit more action, Bodog has upped their stakes on Marquardt to $1000 (an additional $500 from before) -- he's still at +130 there. Appears to be better than most of the rest of the market

[cardman]

Only value for me in all the fight cards, is the Rashad fight. I think Rashad is a good value at pick'em. Taking a pass on all the other fights.