need a plan vs a 2+2er

[nazahl]

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Anyone like a range merging nth level CRAI?

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i thought of that. but i think he probably checks behind alot of mediocre made on the flop also like AQ and what not.

it's not bad if he'll call with his AK assuming that he has more outs then he has. or some weak pair that assumes we're doing it with AK.

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Really easy to imagine him shoving AK, but not calling with it.

In fact, I can't think of many hands that ever call here. Pretty sure he has some hands he'll shove, and some that he'll fold, and nothing in between. Which makes bet/folding really [censored] terrible.

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pretty much exactly my thoughts

[Requin]

Well this is awkward. I'm tempted to c/c once and then give up UI.

Edit: Well you're about a cointoss against a loosish PF range

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

60,390 games 0.091 secs 663,626 games/sec

Board: Qh Tc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.498% 49.67% 00.83% 29996 500.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 49.502% 48.67% 00.83% 29394 500.00 { QQ+, TT-66, AQs-AJs, KQs, JTs, T9s, AQo }


Alot worse off against a tight PF range

29,700 games 0.002 secs 14,850,000 games/sec

Board: Qh Tc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.717% 24.40% 00.32% 7246 95.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 75.283% 74.96% 00.32% 22264 95.00 { QQ+, TT, AQs, AQo }


Against the tight range you do so badly I might just c/f

Against the loose one, you have a bunch of EQ against it. Can you bet call? Let's see a loose PF/loose shoving range (I didn't include KQs, maybe I should have):

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.001 secs 39,600,000 games/sec

Board: Qh Tc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.987% 32.88% 01.11% 13019 440.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 66.013% 64.90% 01.11% 25701 440.00 { QQ+, TT, 88, AQs-AJs, JTs, T9s, AQo }

Against this we can't call so I don't like bet/call, maybe bet/fold if we think he has the loose PF/loose shoving range but we had so much EQ against his loose PF (and I think he might stab a bunch of hands) so i you put him on loose PF and think he stabs with crappy hands like a small pp we can probably c/c profitably.

Against loose PF/tighter shoving range we oviously can't bet/call, so again c/c seems best if we think he stabs.


Cliff notes:
If you think he's loose in calling PF and will stab if you check a halfway decent % of the time with crap hands, then c/c is probably best. If he's loose PF but won't stab alot bet/fold has some merit I think, although I was too lazy to work out FE and such. If he's tight PF because of your nitty image just c/f. Never bet/call.

I did his quickly and don't really want to get into it that much, but please point out any glaring mistakes. There might be a bunch I don't usually spend the time I should working with Pstove

[nazahl]

alright, so were not really sold on any flop line. I went with check/call pretty much b/c I only see worse hands folding or me getting shoved on getting it in as a slight favorite or a fairly bad dog, neither really help the situation much.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $201
Hero (BB): $256.15
UTG: $189
CO: $248.35
BTN: $203

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $8</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $27</font>, CO calls $19

Flop: ($55) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $38</font>, Hero calls $38

Turn: ($131) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)

what now?

[gjim]

Neat hand.

I like check calling the flop some percentage of the time, but I probably would bet fold the flop the majority of the time.

I think this potsize makes playing turn kind of awkward. Leading turns your hand face up, but its probably the best way to get all the money in. There are a bunch of hands drawing to boats and two flush draws in his range bc of the flop check so I'd lead for like $50, or maybe $45. For value and to try and induce a shove.

[Paul Thomson]

bet $50.

[Nick Royale]

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bet $50.

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We shouldn't give him like 4:1 direct, 9:1 implied on this board. At least 80 imo.

I realise you're trying to induce but I don't like it on this board and I don't think it will work often enough.

[willw9]

O this is against me. Hehe..

[willw9]

I think the real question in this hand is the river. I called the turn, another 9 hit the river, and you shoved. I think this is a fairly easy c/f against not just me, but anybody with a brain really. What do you expect to get value from? I dunno, with my hand the turn was exactly a call, but I did put you squarely on JJ without much thought. I/anybody could have soo many boats though on that river, given my line. Like I think it's fair to say I could have every possibly boat combo on that river. A shove gets value from one hand (exactly my hand, like exactly) if the villain is dumb (but I ain't dumb yo).

<font color="white">I had 76cc if you haven't guessed already.</font>

[Paul Thomson]

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bet $50.

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We shouldn't give him like 4:1 direct, 9:1 implied on this board. At least 80 imo.

I realise you're trying to induce but I don't like it on this board and I don't think it will work often enough.

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* Best hand of the week.

Well I'm trying to maximize value against Villain's entire range (which includes inducing bluffs), but I didn't actually play with any numbers, I was just thinking off the top of my head.


POT SIZE = $131
EFFECTIVE STACKS = $183

VILLAIN'S RANGE: This is obviously the hardest part and I actually hardly play, so you're guess of Villain's range is much better than mine. I wish I knew if Villain ever 4-bets preflop...but whatever.

AA= 6 ways
KK= 4 ways (cause he 4-bets it some preflop?)
QQ= 3 ways
JJ= 1 ways
TT= 3 ways
99= 2 ways (cause he folds preflop and checks flop?)

AcKc= 1 way
AK (no club) = 10(cause he 4-bets it some preflop?)

Now the question of how each acts to a bet?

VILLAINS ACTION
AA=
Bet of $50: Folds 100%, Bluffs 0% (ever bluff?)
Bet of $80: Folds 100%, Bluffs 0%

KK
Bet of $50: Folds 95%, Bluffs 5% (bluff too high?)
Bet of $50: Folds 100%, Bluffs 0%

QQ
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 50% Calls 50% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 0%, Raises 0%, Calls 100% (?)

JJ
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 90%, Calls 10%
Bet of $90: Folds 0%, Raises 100%

TT
Bet of $50: Folds 00%, Raises 25%, Calls 75% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 10%, Raises 25%, Calls 65% (?)

99
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 25%, Calls 75% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 20%, Raises 20%, Calls 60% (?)

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 10%, Calls 90% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 100% (?)

AxKx
Bet of $50: Folds 95%, Raises 5% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 100%

Feel free to change any of my numbers, with what you want in bold and I'll do an EV calc.

[Paul Thomson]

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bet $50.

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We shouldn't give him like 4:1 direct, 9:1 implied on this board. At least 80 imo.

I realise you're trying to induce but I don't like it on this board and I don't think it will work often enough.

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forgot to add, why would we ever pay the villain off on the river when he obviously boats up?

i think hero can safely check-fold to a river push when the board pairs, right?