Updated satellite strategy post

[T_Mac]

Very nice post, here's a couple things I've messed up lately, help?

Three handed in a WSOP freeroll, top 2 get seats. I'm comfortable chip leader with ~300k while both others have between 100-150k. I was raising allin every single pot...but you're saying I should have been basically sitting out and making them play against each other? I ended up doubling one of them up when they found AA.

Then it got even worse, we were all roughly equal in chips, when the SB started going allin into my BB every single hand. Sounds like the right strategy according to what you posted. I guess I should have started doing the exact same thing to the other guy when I was SB? Instead I got blinded down. What hands can I call with when I know the guys basically going allin blind?

In another tourney there were roughly 13 ppl left in a 80$ sat, and 9 got 650$ seats. I was a little below average with 9k, I think avg was about 11-13k. I raised to 1800 or so with KK in EP, and a middlish stack who covered me in MP went allin. Is this a call or a fold?

[adanthar]

#1 is tricky because you can't sit out unless the blinds are really big/they will even out with you eventually, so theoretically, you should raise/fold a lot if they don't realize they should be pushing tons. If they play perfectly you should shove decent hands and fold everything else.

Most of the rest is an SNGPT question and depends on the blinds, so buy/use that. I would call KK there though.

[jgunnip]

Great post again on the topic. If I end up qualifying and we happen to meet up in vegas a drink or two on me! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Idahoholdem]

Dude, if you got that far, sound like you just need to practice your short game. And yes, you absolutely should have let them duke it out, unless you know you can get away with a steal once in a while. Otherwise, sit back and let them come to you.

[uphigh_downlow]

well what you say is absolutely correct. The more pertinent question is about adjusting to the play at the table.

medium stacks and big stacks will call off huge chunks of their stacks. The call is -EV for both players in the hand. So it makes sense to sit out and gain equity. But with blinds and antes you are also leaking equity every orbit.

The question really is about where you make your last stand.

And of course the ggeneral discussion helps, but specifics will help.

I think th e question really is on a similar line to Sklansky's post about folding KK heads up in the Poker Theory forum

[biglynes]

Bump. And thanks. Made the cut by folding everything.

[CandaceT1984]

Solid gold sir. Thanks

[jgunnip]

Anybody have experience with the wsop $27 rebuy sats? there are running a bunch of turbos tomorrow for the wsop 150. It is worth it to rebuy right a way in these, since you get a #370 ticket? I'm thining it might better to not rebuy initially, play realitvely tight, push your good hands and hope to get a 3-4x starting stack as cheap as possible and then addon when you can.

I also wondering what point in rebuy satalites is it not worth it to rebuy at the beginning. Like it seems obvious you should rebuy in 3r to the sunday million or 11rebuys. Where for the 39r to the sunday million rebuying right away might not be the most profitable move in terms of ROI. So I wonder at what fraction of the seat value does the inital buyin cost need to be where its probably best not to rebuy at the beginning. I have a hunch it is somewhere between 1/20th and 1/10th, probably closer to 1/10th. (ie for $8 rebuy to the $88 last chance, the buyin cost is 1/11th of the seat prize)

[GotQuads]

You're saying that people make $3000+ mistakes Adanthar, and that's true. However what you're not mentioning is that you have to get to that bubble first, and it's very unlikely you do get there even when playing perfectly. So I tend to disagree that such satellites are more profitable then anything else when those $3000 mistakes occur at a point where you're usually on the rail. Also the number of $3000 mistakes is going to be relatively low, and it's debatable whether those mistakes combined outweigh earlier mistakes by the players.

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
You're saying that people make $3000+ mistakes Adanthar, and that's true. However what you're not mentioning is that you have to get to that bubble first, and it's very unlikely you do get there even when playing perfectly. So I tend to disagree that such satellites are more profitable then anything else when those $3000 mistakes occur at a point where you're usually on the rail. Also the number of $3000 mistakes is going to be relatively low, and it's debatable whether those mistakes combined outweigh earlier mistakes by the players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what you are trying to point out here. What satalites do you think are more profitable? Clearly 3K mistakes will not be plentiful b/c you generally have to be close to the bubble for such mistakes to occur. If you're br allows and you have a clue, sats like the $650 and $1050 to the wsop me are very very good from both an ROI and hourly rate standpoint since a lot of the players qualified to them through satalites.