ensign_lee MLB picks 04/21/07-04/28/07

[ensign_lee]

MrFeelNothin:

Just the once. I was doing it to try to clear my head and not have that cloud of a huge loss hang over my head and affect my future decisions.

Plus, I'm choosing my plays now due to different criteria than I was before, so I'd like to keep those records a little segregated.

You can still clearly see that I'm down if you look at my SS page and look under all my MLB bets. I can definitely understand where you're coming from though.

So, to everyone: I AM DOWN BETTING BASEBALL.

[MrFeelNothin]

[ QUOTE ]
So how many times did you clear the slate and start fresh during the basketball season before you caught a good run?

[/ QUOTE ]


Why should we believe your BASKETBALL record is accurate after this baseball mess?

[ensign_lee]

MrFeelNothin:

Oh. I'm retarded... :doh:

Since I started tracking my basketball bets, I haven't started over. If you tally all the bets, you'll see that they add up to what I have in the 'all' period.

---
YTD: 7-2
Units Won: 12.48

You can verify this stuff yourself at http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978 as well as have more information on whether to follow or fade.

At this point, I would like to make it known that I am DOWN betting baseball since the year started. Like I said in the first post, I took a break and then tried to change my wagering strategy, so I wanted to create a seperate record to reflect that. I also wanted to do this to prevent the urge to chase.

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For today:

Colorado (+178)
3 units at BetJamaica

I'm just posting this now so people don't yell at me later saying I posted an unavailable line. I bet this right now since it's scalpable at Pinnacle at the moment and because this line seems so far off of some of the other ones available at other books. I will probably buy this back later to reduce my unit exposure.

[ensign_lee]

Ended up scalping out my position when I saw the lines this morning with the following bets:

New York Mets (-171)
2 units at BetJamaica

and

New York Mets (-178)
1 units at BetJamaica

leaving me with essentially the following bet:

Colorado (+infinity)
0 units to win .14 units at BetJamaica

So, now I win .14 units if Colorado wins, otherwise I win nothing. Since this bet is now effectively cancelled, I won't include its result in my record, but if the scalp comes in, yay for me. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ensign_lee]

I am waiting to get the best price on:

Baltimore Orioles
2 units

Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently hold the worst prices on Baltimore, at +118 and +117 respectively. The only price who they beat is that of theGreek, but theGreek deals 20 cent lines. And theGreek's price is +116.

Also, 75-80% (depending on your source) of the bets are on Boston and yet the line has barely moved at all.

I'll post the price I get as soon as I get it.

[ensign_lee]

Ok. Never mind. As the prices changed, so did the biases held by Pinnacle and 5Dimes. There is now no longer any reason to bet on Baltimore

[ensign_lee]

And again, disregard my last post.

Near the end, when the lines started to 'settle', there was a distinct bias on 5dimes's end to hold the price at +125 while everyone else' prices kept climbing. Pinnacle's price eventually settled there as well.

Baltimore (+131)
2 units at BetJamaica

[ImNew]

What do you think about the reason behind the change in price?

I bet one unit on Baltimore Orioles +125 & +1.5 -130.

[ensign_lee]

I'm also looking at getting the best price on Tampa Bay as well.

5Dimes holding a price 1 cent worse than all the other places for the majority of the day. Pinnacle holding one cent above that. Both holding generous prices on LAA.

I'm heading out to dinner for the next few hours, but will see what I can get when I get back.

[ncboiler]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think about the reason behind the change in price?

I bet one unit on Baltimore Orioles +125 & +1.5 -130.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got 1 unit at 123