QQ... a Series of Tough Decisions? (50 NL)

[Ikaika]

If you aren't willing to stick your money in on a flop like that, don't 3bet him preflop.

[Sniiii]

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maybe they don't fold preflop, but they surely don't call a cbet when they miss their set. JJ,99 and occassionally AK is the widest calling range we can put him on IMO.

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If that's the case, then we bet the flop for:
[x]value
[x]protection

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so 99,JJ and occasionally AK are > 50% of his calling range are they?

this is a really great spot for a flop check.

fwiw, i check flop, think a LOT about betting or checking turn, probably bet and check fold river.

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Instead of bringing up tons of false points as to why I'd bet the flop, I'll just take back what I said and agree: your line is way better. Thanks.

[bozzer]

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If you aren't willing to stick your money in on a flop like that, don't 3bet him preflop.

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i'm not sure i understand this. we are ahead of his range preflop, and probably ahead of a 3bet calling range. we're probably not ahead of a cbet calling range. what's the problem with 3betting then checking this flop? i think there are plenty of better flops out there, but tbh i am really not sure where this flop sits as a % of how good it is - is it in the top 50% of flops for us?

[LiveNow]

checking sucks because we want to A) charge draws B) get value from worse hands (including draws)

[bozzer]

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checking sucks because we want to A) charge draws B) get value from worse hands (including draws)

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what draws/worse hands??? there are literally so few...

edit: i hope i don't sound rude. i'm just very interested in getting to the bottom of this betting the flop consensus.

[bored]

I check/fold the river. You beat nothing and are trying to represent hands that Villain either already has or already has beat. I don't think he will fold an overpair here.

Also, fold to the river shove/minraise. What hand does he show up with here 20%+ of the time that you beat? The one combo of QQ for the split?

Slowplayed TT or 2 outed JJ... Hmm it's a tossup, I think I'm gonna go with TT.

I probably fire one cbet on this flop and if i get called I shut down. Exploitable? Yes, but not by someone only playing their premium cards, and if it turns out that it is some 20/10 or even 40/30 who just got cold decked for 50 hands I'll be comfortable that I only lost a small/medium pot vs them.

[mojed]

So OP, you check the flop hoping for a low card to hit the turn, so that you can get some value from 99, 88 on later streets?

I think betting the flop is better, because while I understand that his calling range is narrow, there are so many turn cards that annoy us that I just want to take the pot down now. Also, villain likely would have 4 bet with KK and AA, so if we can narrow his calling range even to just QQ, JJ, 77 and TT, there are six JJ, one 77 and QQ and three TT. We have have slightly over 50% equity against that range, plus by checking we've let AK draw for free.

[BukNaked36]

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checking sucks because we want to A) charge draws B) get value from worse hands (including draws)

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what draws/worse hands??? there are literally so few...

edit: i hope i don't sound rude. i'm just very interested in getting to the bottom of this betting the flop consensus.

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Cards we dont want to see on the turn - A, K, any diamond

You're crazy to let AK have a free shot at the turn especially having reraised preflop.