*official 2007 red sox thread*

[craig]

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The point is, its 5 games, so relax, and the run differential indicates they aren't playing .200 baseball, they are getting unlucky.

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Not the time to be getting unlucky.

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When would have been a good time this season to get unlucky?

It would have been much better for them to lose these games at the beginning of the season. If they wouldn't have lost these last 3 games now, for example, but instead at the beginning of the season their record would have been

90 current win record
-3 games at the beginning of the season
+3 last games


Their record would be 90-62 instead of..wait this cannot be right..90-62.

craig

[youtalkfunny]

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he only "said simply" instead of mentioning his reasons for his opinion

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I wrote him back, suggesting my number of BOS -120, pointing out our great pitching depth. His reply:

Look at the lines this weekend in Boston, every game was pick to Yankees small favorite. Obviously in NY the Yankees would be large favorites. You also have to realize if they play, the Yankees would have won a series so that would play into the Yankees hand.

I take that last sentence to mean, "If they win a series, they'll be getting even more hype than usual."

I should note that his comments were written before the Sox dropped two to Toronto and the Yanks crushed the O's twice.

Anybody still think -155 sounds retarded?

[gehrig]

if ur friend thinks the true odds are yankees -155 hes way off. the two teams are very very even. pecota had the yankees ahead a few games before the season and the red sox are going to win the division despite running pretty bad in terms of wins/losses.

if he thinks that vegas sportsbooks will set the line at -155 then he could be right i dont really care

[THAY3R]

The current Yankees team is very different than the season long team.

[34TheTruth34]

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if ur friend thinks the true odds are yankees -155 hes way off. the two teams are very very even. pecota had the yankees ahead a few games before the season and the red sox are going to win the division despite running pretty bad in terms of wins/losses.

if he thinks that vegas sportsbooks will set the line at -155 then he could be right i dont really care

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I'm not trying to troll you or anything, but please explain why, given the 6 games the Sox and Yanks just played, that you think the teams are "very, very even"?

[sublime]

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if ur friend thinks the true odds are yankees -155 hes way off. the two teams are very very even. pecota had the yankees ahead a few games before the season and the red sox are going to win the division despite running pretty bad in terms of wins/losses.

if he thinks that vegas sportsbooks will set the line at -155 then he could be right i dont really care

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I'm not trying to troll you or anything, but please explain why, given the 6 games the Sox and Yanks just played, that you think the teams are "very, very even"?

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6 games

NYY runs scored: 27
boston: 26

i mean its 6 games so whatever...but if your gonna bring up those 6 games, then the simple fact of those 6 games is that the teams are very very close.

[nutshot2]

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if ur friend thinks the true odds are yankees -155 hes way off. the two teams are very very even. pecota had the yankees ahead a few games before the season and the red sox are going to win the division despite running pretty bad in terms of wins/losses.

if he thinks that vegas sportsbooks will set the line at -155 then he could be right i dont really care

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I'm not trying to troll you or anything, but please explain why, given the 6 games the Sox and Yanks just played, that you think the teams are "very, very even"?

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6 games

NYY runs scored: 27
boston: 26


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Is that seriously your argument?

[sublime]

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if ur friend thinks the true odds are yankees -155 hes way off. the two teams are very very even. pecota had the yankees ahead a few games before the season and the red sox are going to win the division despite running pretty bad in terms of wins/losses.

if he thinks that vegas sportsbooks will set the line at -155 then he could be right i dont really care

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I'm not trying to troll you or anything, but please explain why, given the 6 games the Sox and Yanks just played, that you think the teams are "very, very even"?

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6 games

NYY runs scored: 27
boston: 26


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Is that seriously your argument?

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L
O
L

[sublime]

for those interested in what the series line will be, just look at the closing lines for recent matchups (note i am adding two cents for manny, which considering his fielding and 'injury' still seems a tad pessimistic):

game 1 @ boston

beckett vs wang

BOS -106 = 51.4% of winning game

Game 2 @ boston

schilling vs clemens

NYY -102 50.5%

Game 3 @ NYY

dicek vs pettite

NYY -122 55%

Game 4 @ NYY

wakefield? v mussina?

this could be the matchup or it could be hughes or even buchholz?

i will go with NYY -122 again 55%

Game #5 @ NYY

beckett vs wang

NYY -110 52.3%

Game #6 @ BOS

schilling vs clemens

NYY -102 50.5%

game 7 @ BOS

dicek vs pettite

NYY -106 51.4%

now things could change and these rotations could be totally off. especially RE the redc sox as beckett is clearly the best pitcher on both teams. however we keep it simple.

so from the favored teams perspective (NYY) we get a line of roughly NYY -118 to win the series (my method for calculating the series line may be wrong, but i dont think it is)

this also assumes bos maintains HFA

-155 might happen considering how the matchups shape up, or how both teams look in round one but it is a crystal clear overlay if it goes down like above.

[Toro]

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6 games

NYY runs scored: 27
boston: 26



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Here we go again with that 10-1 victory distorting the whole meaning of that stat. You're not fooling anyone except maybe yourself.