Sniper's Unofficial 2+2 Post Count Analysis

[Gildwulf]

In regards to the bbv/bbv4life/oot/el d ranking...

These are my predictions:

In 6 months I think the numbers will look something like...

BBV (decent lead)
El Diablo forum
BBV4life and OOT in a tie for third

I don't see how OOT's numbers will be sustainable with the steady stream of regular OOT posters moving to bbv/bbv4life, and the rest of OOT's solid posters focusing their best ideas on the El D forum.

I am a professional pollster though, so these predictions are probably way off

gw

[diebitter]

I say BBV4Life will be number 1.

[El Diablo]

Sniper,

"The more interesting forum event, is the continued growth of BBV4Life..."

Wait a sec. You're telling me that 2+2 makes a forum where generally young kids with tons of free time who are online more than most anyone can post about just about anything with little moderation or restriction, and that forum is getting a lot of posts? Holy cow, you're right, that IS interesting!!!!

OR BLINDINGLY F'ING OBVIOUS.

[El Diablo]

Gild,

No way my forum will be that high given the high level of restriction/moderation on the content. I think it will quite possibly have one of the highest content and information levels of any OT forum, and probably the highest signal/noise ratio, but in terms of sheer traffic, nowhere near the top.

BBV/BBV4LIFE/OOT numbers will be largely based on moderation levels. If BBV4LIFE continues the "pretty much anything goes" type approach, it'll quite possibly get bigger than BBV.

[Gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
Gild,

No way my forum will be that high given the high level of restriction/moderation on the content. I think it will quite possibly have one of the highest content and information levels of any OT forum, and probably the highest signal/noise ratio, but in terms of sheer traffic, nowhere near the top.

BBV/BBV4LIFE/OOT numbers will be largely based on moderation levels. If BBV4LIFE continues the "pretty much anything goes" type approach, it'll quite possibly get bigger than BBV.

[/ QUOTE ]

El D, I think you are underestimating the potential of the forum. Most of the volume of posts in BBV and OOT are made by a few dozen very high-volume posters (100+ a week). I don't think it matters that you only have 150 people who can start threads, if those people post 50 times a week.

It is precisely because you have limited the number of people, imo, that you are going to attract a much higher concentration from a smaller realm of posters. By already outlining your core base and attracting them I think it will grow from there and eclipse OOT and possibly BBV4life.

My main argument still stands though: if one forum is for discussion, and a forum is introduced for "elite discussion" and they draw on the same pool of posters, you are going to take a huge hit in the first forum. It will take a few months to show, though.


Addendum:

It is the same in politics for issue-based voting. If noone gives a crap about the environment, the Green Party (in Canada) can attract some interest. If every party adopts the environment as a key issue in their platform though, the Green Party is going to need to adjust its image.

Green Party=OOT in this analogy.

[Gildwulf]

Also, bbv4life is under the same rules as bbv in terms of tone and follows 2p2 policy just like every other forum. I just lock less threads.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
Sniper,

"The more interesting forum event, is the continued growth of BBV4Life..."

Wait a sec. You're telling me that 2+2 makes a forum where generally young kids with tons of free time who are online more than most anyone can post about just about anything with little moderation or restriction, and that forum is getting a lot of posts? Holy cow, you're right, that IS interesting!!!!

OR BLINDINGLY F'ING OBVIOUS.

[/ QUOTE ]

But doesn't this description apply to OOT also?

As a relatively older 2+2er, I personally have had nearly zero interest in even looking at BBV4L, as I have assumed - perhaps incorrectly - that it would be pretty repetitive and dull. I point this out only as a way of wondering whether that forum has a different demographic make up.

I guess I'll start taking a look and find out what the fuss is about.

[El Diablo]

Wynton: Yes it was, and BBV4L is basically what OOT turned into after 2+2 started skewing younger. Then a lot of people complained about the noise:signal ratio, and a lot of that stuff (which a big chunk of users find amusing/hilarious/awesome) was moderated out of OOT and found a new home in BBV, then the spawned off BBV4L. BBV4L is basically OOT w/ more poop jokes.

Gild: As we all know, the guidelines about what's "appropriate" for the forum are different all over the place at 2+2, and BBV/BBV4L are by far the most lax. I'm not saying that's a bad thing for that audience, just pointing out a simple fact. As for my forum, I've explained a few times what sort of content I see going in mine and what sort of stuff I see doing better in OOT. The rivalries thread by KBZ is a perfect example. It got a handful of responses in my forum and was going nowhere. I locked it and had him put it in OOT, where it got over 100 responses. That's gonna be the case for tons of types of threads that benefit from high volumes of views and responses, even if they are largely low content. I see a distinct and clear division between what sort of stuff will end up in my forum vs OOT. I think our difference in opinion revolves around the term "discussion." That's very much what my forum is for. OOT in my opinion is about a much wider range of posting than that.

[tuq]

[ QUOTE ]
BBV (decent lead)
El Diablo forum
BBV4life and OOT in a tie for third

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with El D's analysis below and would also like to point out that BBV and its sister forum are very likely to see a leveling off or even possibly a drop in posts as its forum regulars increasingly make posts that don't even remotely resemble the English language as the rest of us know it. Black have Ebonics...maybe you should call it "EBBVonics"? Either way it is hard to follow for outsiders and not likely to grow the poster base unless you have a sticky with translations or something and update it frequently.

[Wynton]

It's amazing to me how oblivious I can be about all the forum development issues, despite how much I've posted at this place. I wonder if I'm the exception in that regard.

I've got a feeling that there is actually an interesting sociological study to be made about the needs underlying the various changes here, which I bet are echoed in many other non-poker forums also.

(I'd start a thread on this theme, but no longer have an idea where such a thread even belongs.)