Survivor China OFFICIAL THREAD

[wisehandpoker]

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What a great ep. Props to Todd for coming up with a genius meta-game plan to counter the other tribe's plan on removing James.

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Am I the only one who thinks Todd's plan was far from genius? ignoring the results but not the potential for them, the alternative was for him to get the idol, have Denise, Courtney and Amanda throw the challenge and vote off Sheria, giving them numbers regardless. Seems like the benefits of that plan were far greater. Even if Courtney then insists on voting of JRB, they're getting rid of a player they don't want around.

- I did like Todd's thinking on the power broker issue. Still think Sherea is the right pick though.

- Courtney continues to impress. Not only is she weak, but she's begun the process of alienating what I thought was her closest ally in the game in Todd. Brilliant.

- I found it interesting that the Jamie/Eric romance angle got zero play this week. Can't help but wonder if her decision to not tell him about throwing the challenge might have soured him. She seems a lot more duplicitous than she appears on the surface and that action may have clued him in.

- I don't understand why Pieh-Gee would think she was tight with Sherea. it was pretty obvious that from their five-player alliance, Sherea was the next to go and had little to gain from that affiliation.

- Sherea was right that JRB wasn't answering the question he was asked. She could also use some anger counselling.

[Ser William]

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Am I the only one who thinks Todd's plan was far from genius? ignoring the results but not the potential for them, the alternative was for him to get the idol, have Denise, Courtney and Amanda throw the challenge and vote off Sheria, giving them numbers regardless. Seems like the benefits of that plan were far greater. Even if Courtney then insists on voting of JRB, they're getting rid of a player they don't want around.


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The problem with this may lie in the fact that we don't know how the show has been edited. Let's say they knew 100% for sure that the other team was throwing the challenges, which they should not only because they could see it with their own two eyes, but also because they kidnapped James and you would think he would tell them what happened at tribal council at some point. It just wasn't shown on air. So if they knew the other team was throwing challenges, how could they be sure that they would indeed be able to "outthrow" them so to speak? I think that this was the best way to do it.

Also, I still think that James is going to give an idol back to Todd when they merge. He has shown almost no ability to play the "strategic" part of survivor at all. Hence you could see how it was almost physically impossible for him to throw that challenge. I mean, even when lunch lady couldn't get it down, all James had to do was say "I can't either Jeff" and quit, but that just isn't in his nature. So I will be very surprised if James doesn't give the idol back.

And again, to quote from my post above, if the tribes didn't merge this would ensure James survives another tribal council if the other team lost, whereas Todd pretty much feels 100% confident in his own ability to survive with Sheria/JRB etc obvious "first to go" targets.

[DeuceKicker]

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maybe im totally off but i dont think james has two immunity idols.

[/ QUOTE ]I'm pretty sure Todd gave the idol to James. He said so directly a few times. We didn't see James holding it, but I'm pretty sure he took his bags with him to the other camp when he got kidnapped. He just stuffed it in his bag. The plan is for him to get the second idol and give one to Todd after the merge.

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courtney pretty much f'ed herself in the loooong run but as mentioned is in pretty good shape because she is so not a threat. but turning on a good alliance isnt very logical. still bound for a semi deep run because she can barely pick herself up in the morning.

[/ QUOTE ]I wonder if Courtney didn't actually improve her chances this week. She was already an outcast in the tribe, and she's not at all a threat. But if they go into the merge with a 6-4 advantage, she's a prime candidate to jump ship and even things up. If she becomes hated enough, the others will also start to actively keep her around so they can go up against her in the final two/three. (This is JRB's problem, I think. He’s certainly not loved, but he hasn't made himself hated enough that they want to keep him for the final vote.)

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not sure why the plan was to vote jaime instead of erik. he is obviously more of a threat down the line but serves the same purpose of breaking up that group/duo.

[/ QUOTE ]Maybe Todd's thinking was that Jaime was tight with Erik and Peih-Gee, and removing her would pretty much fracture their whole group.

I think Todd made a mistake giving the idol to James. With the idol--even losing numbers if James gets voted out--he could really be running things. As much as we all love James, if I'm on the show I'm thinking it's about time for him to go. There's just too much chance that he dominates the challenges from here on out--especially given that they've been more physical this year than before.

If the other tribe loses and axes James, you've still got your core group. Frosti seeing the idol might be a good thing, too. People seem to flock to the hidden idol like a battle flag. (They'd certainly prefer to have it on their side than be going up against it.) I think Todd could trust Frosti to join them at least for a few votes, long enough to secure a decent numerical advantage.

With the red tribe actually losing, you face the probability that James comes to the merge with two idols. if he returns one to Todd, that means he has to lose two individual challenges in order to vote him off, and you're going to have to cast useless votes for him the first time he loses, just to make him burn the idol. Todd may have handed James a spot in the final three.

Priceless moment: James slapping Todd on the shoulder and almost knocking him over. "You almost killed me, just then, James.”
“That’s love, baby. Make you strong.”

[keepitreal]

good post deuce kicker,

the more i read the more i think james will possess both idols at one time (but may still return one). i sorta just couldnt fathom todd giving the strongest player (ever?) two immunity idols but that seems to be the case.

as for courtney, i was gonna mention something about courtney switching sides to try to even things out but thought it might be too "spoilery" but now that its out there, she is definitely the player with the most options and widest range of when she will go.

i see your logic with jaime over erik but i still would vote erik. how much of a threat is the jaime/pg combo? even if they add courntey or frosti swings back...they are still outnumbered and never really a physical threat. erik is honestly one of the top 4 biggest individual immunity threats and i would have been happy to send him home before he even got a chance to prove he could make an individual immunity run.

i havent watched survivor since the very early seasons so im half clueless in my theorizing...but...does somebody like denise just stay aligned with her red tribe knowing she will lose around 4-5 or do these quiet/non threatening types ever make a run for the win? because right now i can only see 3-4 people actually winning this (todd, amanda, maybe james/frosti on a sick immunity run).

if just seems like a lot of people accept being pawns. sure james isnt great at strategy but he could theoretically never be at risk until the final vote. todd is masterminding with amanda, the remaining yellows tried but failed (or so it looks) but the rest are just stuck and dont seem to care...

all i know is im hooked and excited.

[DeuceKicker]

I meant to mention last post that I think there are either two or four of those bat carvings in each camp, with only one being the II. So maybe James started tearing all the carvings off, looking for the right one. Maybe Erik found one of the non-IIs and thought it might be the II.

I agree that Erik would have been a better choice than Jaime. At this stage in the game--just before merge--they need to give priority to securing numerical advantage for their tribe/alliance, but they also need to start thinking about post-merge vote-off order. Todd cannot compete physically with the other guys, so he should have targeted Erik before Jaime.

I don't remember specifics, but there have been a number of times when someone like Denise just flies below the radar for the entire show and ends up in the top three. Often it's someone who has a very strong two-person alliance with the dominant player.

Last year Cassandra was BFFs with Earl, who was playing a great strategic game. She never had to do anything but vote with Earl.

The year before that was Becky and Yul. Yul was running things the entire time, and Becky was his faithful sidekick. (They were both Korean, and she used a Korean word to denote a big brother/little sister relationship)

I think Cassandra finished second, and Becky third (behind Ozzy who as a small, short, but very fast/agile guy who swam like a MFing fish, dominated challenges like nobody ever had before. As blasphemous as it may sound, I'd pick Ozzy over James in a series of Survivor challenges. So many of them are water-based.)

As far as being pawns. I think after a certain point you can't help it anymore. I'm sure JRB thought he was going to use his hand-reading abilities to run the show, but he quickly found himself on the outs and all his strategizing has been defensive/tactical in nature, rather than offensive/strategic. Everyone else just seems to be turtling, hoping to catch their breath and figure out a larger gameplan.

Sadly, it seems that only Todd and Peih-Gee have been playing any kind of strategic game.

[mephisto]

Another really solid post deuce. Keep it up.

[SpaceJanitor]

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Also, I still think that James is going to give an idol back to Todd when they merge. He has shown almost no ability to play the "strategic" part of survivor at all. Hence you could see how it was almost physically impossible for him to throw that challenge. I mean, even when lunch lady couldn't get it down, all James had to do was say "I can't either Jeff" and quit, but that just isn't in his nature. So I will be very surprised if James doesn't give the idol back.


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I totally agree. I'm pretty sure that James is the single most honest person on the island and that he is morally incapable of any kind of backstabbing tactics. Remember how perplexed and shocked he was at Jaimie&PG throwing the challenge, like he really couldn't understand at all how they could do that. I don't know what that says about his chances of winning though.
He will definately return the idol to Todd in my opinion, mostly because he is trustworthy, but probably also to stay in the alliance and get rid of Jamie&PG ASAP.

[jstnrgrs]

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With the red tribe actually losing, you face the probability that James comes to the merge with two idols. if he returns one to Todd, that means he has to lose two individual challenges in order to vote him off, and you're going to have to cast useless votes for him the first time he loses, just to make him burn the idol. Todd may have handed James a spot in the final three.


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Based on the srtategy discussion and the way it was done last season, I think that the idol is played after the votes are cast, but before they are read. This means that you don't have to burn votes the first time, you just have to make James think you are voting for him when you are actually voting for someone else.

[DukeSucks]

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I meant to mention last post that I think there are either two or four of those bat carvings in each camp, with only one being the II. So maybe James started tearing all the carvings off, looking for the right one. Maybe Erik found one of the non-IIs and thought it might be the II.

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I think this or something like this is correct. Didn't Todd's immunity idol say something like "this is the immunity idol", while Erik's comments were "this looks idolish"? I would assume they both would have the same comments on the back, and Erik's comments sounds like the one he was looking at was blank on the back.

[d10]

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With the red tribe actually losing, you face the probability that James comes to the merge with two idols. if he returns one to Todd, that means he has to lose two individual challenges in order to vote him off, and you're going to have to cast useless votes for him the first time he loses, just to make him burn the idol. Todd may have handed James a spot in the final three.


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Based on the srtategy discussion and the way it was done last season, I think that the idol is played after the votes are cast, but before they are read. This means that you don't have to burn votes the first time, you just have to make James think you are voting for him when you are actually voting for someone else.

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I didn't watch last season but on the season with Yul I'm almost sure after every vote was read the host said "Unless you have the immunity idol, bring me your torch," so the idol would be played only if necessary. I don't know how it's supposed to work this time.