Week 1 NCAA plays and leans

[MyTurn2Raise]

oh yeah, in general, sorry this thread got borderline ugly last nights as there was constructive criticism going on

The one thing I've improved at dramatically is getting better lines as Thremp sarcastically made fun of me and would PM me everyday it seemed with a better line he got for my game and some derisive comment.

It's really huge. I went 181-155 on sides, totals, and coinflip props on my posted picks the last two seasons without working hard to find the best line. I went back through my data and saw that I could've been 187-149 by just grabbing the second best line available at the time of the bet at books rated A- or better. That's a jump from 53.9% to 55.7%, which is huge!

This week alone I had Illinois +6 (push instead of loss), Memphis +3 (win instead of a push), LSU/Miss St o45 when it was 45.5 most places (push instead of loss) and I added when it dropped to o44 before kickoff (commented in IRC but didn't post, so I won't add it to my official record), UNLV -6.5 @ Utah St (win instead of push), ULM-Tulsa u52.5 (win instead of push)

Just by line hunting, I made a significant difference in about the 45 O/U, ATS Game spreads I had this week and that doesn't include 2nd half bets.

I understand the concern post UIGEA. I balance that risk by suggesting to only use highly rated books on SBR. For example, 5dimes, WSEX, Bookmaker, TheGreek, BoDog, matchbook, betonline, betJamaica should give you a nice selection and make upto one point difference in the totals you get and a half point in the lines. THAT IS HUGE!!!!!!

I'm not so concerned with the environment in gambling anyway as long as reputable books are used. I believe last summer I had 39 online poker accounts. I was the uber-whore. I had money still sitting at over half when they slowly locked off US customers one by one. Every single one of them paid in full. while I trust sportsbooks less, I'm not too concerned having 1/12 of my roll at any of the sites I listed earlier.

Also, the second half difference between pk and -2 is huge. Actually, I was about to bet that second half at -.5 when bookmaker dropped to pk right before I confirmed somewhere else.

1) The push on the zero is awesome
2) one point can and does happen frequently enough....7-6, 14-13, even 8-7 with FSU trying to comeback.

It's just tough to take one to two points worse than widely available (which I consider the second best line available at the A- or better books) and be a winner. I did it over the last 10 seasons, but I can only regret not having stockpiled a much larger record and unit profit.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Also, I'm trying to get better at reading which way the lines will move which is infinitely harder and more complex than just line shopping as SBRLines pretty much does the line shopping for me.

IIRC, rush66 is a master at reading which way the lines will move.

[MyTurn2Raise]

ironic enough, just was reading a post at therx on a players profits doubling by moving his win pct from 53.8 to 55 here

Line shopping can be a doubling of profits for a winning capper

[ImNew]

Just a recap of week 1:
East Carolina +27.5 -108 W
Georgia Tech +1 -103 W
UCLA -16½ -106 W
Oklahoma State o55.5 -110 L
Tennessee U o54.5 -105 W
Kansas St +13.5 -105 W
Kansas St o45.5 -110 L
Illinois o56 -110 W
Virginia -3 -105 L
Clemson u45.5 -110 W
7-3, +3.75 units

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
ironic enough, just was reading a post at therx on a players profits doubling by moving his win pct from 53.8 to 55 here

Line shopping can be a doubling of profits for a winning capper

[/ QUOTE ]

This is so, so key for every bettor, esp the n00bs. Line shopping is THE KEY to becoming a lifetime winner at this. BR keeps you in the game, but finding those extra 0.5-2pts is they key. I'm running 62.8% since 2005 in CFB on my posted picks here [totally unsustainable, not happy about the forthcoming variance beatdown] and I can guaran-damn-tee you that at least 5-10 of those wins came from turning 'woulda-been' pushes into wins thru lots and lots of shopping.

The second key, the harder part, is figuring out which way the lines are moving/gonna move so you can wait on those going your way, and pouncing immediately on those you want before they move. Being able to get OSU, Rutgers, Temple, PSU at 3, 12, 2.5, 12-14/ instead of 4, 16.5, 4 and 17.5 is a massive advantage. Waiting to add to Oregon at 8.5 instead of betting 2x at 7 can turn a push into a nice win. This takes some good analysis and experience, but should eventually come to any avid bettor with time. Totals can move a lot as well, I won at least one game by a pt, and lost the ArizSt game by a pt. A move from +18 to +19 likely won't affect your bet, but the total moving from 48.5 to 49.5 sure can because your bet is still in question in a 42-7 blowout with 2 mins left.

Great posts, mt2r.

As I always say, I know a LOT more winning line-shoppers than I know winning 'cappers. And Line shopping is not hard.

[sanmarcosrun1]

Naj, myturn, and iggy don't get enough thanks. I have read all fo your posts for over a year now in sports betting forum and I greatly appreciate everything you all have said. Thank you very much for all the contributions.