Absolute Cliffsnotes (Mod edit: AP thread, part 2)

[AJFenix]

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he won 37 buyins (assuming a buyin = 100BB) in 440 hands playing 90/70. do you seriously think its possible to do this without cheating?

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It is possible. It's very improbable, but it is most assuredly possible.

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Very possible considering how he's playing 90/80. With that high vpip, you are going to either.

a. win a [censored] load
b. lose a [censored] load

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c. lose a little
d. lose a medium amount
e. win a little
f. win a medium amount
g. win a slightly more than medium but not super big amount
h. lose a slightly more than medium but not super big amount
i. break dead even

[Trogdor!]

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or it could just be that the cards are breaking even now, while before he was running hot

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Lol, you mean he runs totally ridiculously hot with an INFINITE river aggression factor averaging 100-200 bb/100 over the 1000 or so hands that we had aggregated against him also averaging 95 percent or so VPIP, 25 percent WSD, and 50 percent W$SD, then as soon as the thread accusing him of cheating pops up his stats immediately reverse? Yeah, that must be it.

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Leveled

[jman220]

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or it could just be that the cards are breaking even now, while before he was running hot

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Lol, you mean he runs totally ridiculously hot with an INFINITE river aggression factor averaging 100-200 bb/100 over the 1000 or so hands that we had aggregated against him also averaging 95 percent or so VPIP, 25 percent WSD, and 50 percent W$SD, then as soon as the thread accusing him of cheating pops up his stats immediately reverse? Yeah, that must be it.

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lol. There's a first time for everything.

[Trogdor!]

for all those saying it is possible.

well ofc it is possible but for example if an agency does testing on company products and the company says that there is a .001% chance of faults and the agency finds a ridiculously large amount of faults in a sample it is safe to assume that the % is not .001 or w/e like the company says and reject there claims.

Same thing here WE MUST reject that this is variance it is way too improbable and alot more likely its suss

[jman220]

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for all those saying it is possible.

well ofc it is possible but for example if an agency does testing on company products and the company says that there is a .001% chance of faults and the agency finds a ridiculously large amount of faults in a sample it is safe to assume that the % is not .001 or w/e like the company says and reject there claims.

Same thing here WE MUST reject that this is variance it is way too improbable and alot more likely its suss

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To say that there is a .001% chance of someone playing the way Graycat plays having the results that he had way overestimates that possibility, IMO. I would love for someone more knowledgeable than me to work up some sort of statistical model on that.

[blutarski]

If Seif is cheating, how stupid is he to say "brb, let me get my doomswitch, etc." then use it?

This will end any chance of UIGEA going away anytime soon.

[DaveyDonk]

To those wondering how someone could be so dumb as to make this whole ordeal so obvious, I'll tell a short that is somewhat similar to this, in a way.

2 online friends discovered some bug at an online casino's blackjack tables. I don't know how it worked, but it gave them a certain edge. They recruited a few people (myself included) to make accounts and link w/ Neteller and so forth and we'd get a % and they would just use our accounts so that they didn't run their own accounts up huge.

They would then cash out ~$1,000 at a time once a week on each account, leave enough in for variance, rinse & repeat. After a while they got greedy, started betting huge amounts, and before long were making $10,000 cashouts (or whatever the max cashout was, I believe this was the amount). Very soon after they started the max cashouts, all accounts were closed down and remaining money confiscated.

These were very smart guys (one of them posts here quite a bit), but greed [censored] up a very good money-making scheme for them (and us).

[Greeksquared]

I have a masters in statistics and an off the cuff estimate I would give would be something like 10^20:1

[jman220]

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I have a masters in statistics and an off the cuff estimate I would give would be something like 10^20:1

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Yeah, I figured it would be something like that.

[ghostface]

so you're sayin theres a chance?