** Official September Chat Thread: The Grey Swan **

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
Like the guy yesterday telling me I overplayed my jacks as I stacked his TT?

[/ QUOTE ]
A guy yesterday berated me for getting all-in on the flop with a 15-out draw (flush draw plus oesd) against his TPTK. I was a 57% favorite LOL.

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Him: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Me: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Umm, thanks for your money fish!

[Mike Kelley]

3 8's
3 7's
2 6's
9 h's

17 outs correct? I kind of played it like a donk, I was pretty frustrated with this donk and felt like I would stack him for sure on the river. DUCY?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($20.65)
UTG+1 ($58.50)
MP1 ($47.50)
MP2 ($41)
MP3 ($185.35)
CO ($84.85)
Button ($22.90)
SB ($50)
Mike Kelley ($51.30)

Preflop: Mike Kelley is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Mike Kelley checks.

Flop: ($1.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Mike Kelley bets $1</font>, MP3 calls $1.

Turn: ($3.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Mike Kelley bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Mike Kelley raises to $21.1</font>, MP3 calls $15.10.

River: ($45.45) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Mike Kelley checks, MP3 checks.

Final Pot: $45.45

Mike Kelley has 6h 8h (two pair, sixes and fives).
MP3 has 9d Qd (two pair, nines and fives).
Outcome: MP3 wins $45.45. </font>

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
20K this month Grand Melon, and a free 8k for next month by the sounds of it.

I have noticed that I am running at 25% went to showdown this month. Any solid winners up this high?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little over 29% in my DB. Is that supposed to be high?

[/ QUOTE ]

that seems really high

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
3 8's
3 7's
2 6's
9 h's

17 outs correct? I kind of played it like a donk, I was pretty frustrated with this donk and felt like I would stack him for sure on the river. DUCY?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($20.65)
UTG+1 ($58.50)
MP1 ($47.50)
MP2 ($41)
MP3 ($185.35)
CO ($84.85)
Button ($22.90)
SB ($50)
Mike Kelley ($51.30)

Preflop: Mike Kelley is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Mike Kelley checks.

Flop: ($1.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Mike Kelley bets $1</font>, MP3 calls $1.

Turn: ($3.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Mike Kelley bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Mike Kelley raises to $21.1</font>, MP3 calls $15.10.

River: ($45.45) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Mike Kelley checks, MP3 checks.

Final Pot: $45.45

Mike Kelley has 6h 8h (two pair, sixes and fives).
MP3 has 9d Qd (two pair, nines and fives).
Outcome: MP3 wins $45.45. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]
Turn re-raise is bad against a calling station. Just call and draw cheaply.

[CalledDownLight]

Its 29.02% to be exact and over a 112,489 hand sample from NL25-NL600. 73k of those hands at NL50-100. Winrate is 1.82 ptbb/100 over that sample and 49.28 W$SD. What should I be doing differently to up the winrate?

[Mike Kelley]

It was pot limit, but yeah you are right.

[five4suited]

I haven't played that high but I'd agree that 29 isn't good. To up your winrate, go to showdown less. The point where you're losing money for each additional % of WtSD should be a good deal lower than that imho. However, this is only referring to full ring. It's also a function of your VPIP.

[soah]

at those stakes there are probably a lot more pots where the morans never bet the best hand and so you end up going to showdown with nothing in a small pot... that might account for part of why your stats there are a lot different than mine

[TheProdigy]

He shortstacks a lot. That is prob the diff.

[GrandMelon]

man i wanna play but 2/4 is nasssssty right now