** Official July Chat Thread: The Black Swan ** - Page 247

MyTurn2Raise · #**2461** 07-26-2007, 04:58 PM

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i've been trying to tell you this for a long time

this is typical

the pokersites are rigging allin confrontations

evenso, they are still +ev to play

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I mostly think you're joking but ya never know.

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i'm not joking
i've run the stats as best I can
everyone thinks it's a joke
oh well...makes me a tin foil crowd
whatever, the facts are the facts

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MT2R,

I think I've read you say before that you believe the cards come as expected but the all-in confrontations are rigged. Do you mean that the big premiums get matched up more than expected (AA vs KK, QQ), or do you mean the inferior hand winning more than it should in general?

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the inferior hand wins more than it should

based on %equity when the hands get allin, the better hand holds up about 95% as much as it should

tautomer · #**2462** 07-26-2007, 05:02 PM

Sample size on all ins?

MyTurn2Raise · #**2463** 07-26-2007, 05:04 PM

tens of thousands

tautomer · #**2464** 07-26-2007, 05:16 PM

Are you using the pokerEv software or running some kind of SQL query? There may be bugs involved when multiple people are all in. Or you're just running cold and that's all there is to it. I know how it goes man. Notice how people continually running hot rarely post any of these numbers.

1p0kerboy · #**2465** 07-26-2007, 05:25 PM

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Notice how people continually running hot rarely post any of these numbers.

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Yeah.

If I was running hot I certainly wouldn't be posting about it. Heck, I probably wouldn't even know I was running hot. I would probably just think I was good. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

1p0kerboy · #**2466** 07-26-2007, 05:30 PM

I'm running the set-o-meter over my whole databases.

I think some of the numbers might be skewed in that it only shows showdown hands if I'm not mistaken?

1p0kerboy · #**2467** 07-26-2007, 05:31 PM

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I think some of the numbers might be skewed in that it only shows showdown hands if I'm not mistaken?

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To answer my own question it shows all pairs that go to a flop. Some of the other numbers (such as %won, etc.) are dependent on showndown hands.

jhill3535 · #**2468** 07-26-2007, 05:45 PM

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i'm not joking
i've run the stats as best I can
everyone thinks it's a joke
oh well...makes me a tin foil crowd
whatever, the facts are the facts

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Scary.

When you say that you've run the stats the best you could, how many players have you done this on?

Here's my YTD FTW.

found 3838 headsup allin situations
won: 2307 lost: 1409 tied: 122
average potsize: 74.38$
average ev: 0.6024
money won: 174139.15$
money expected (based on allin equity): 176023.74$
money difference: -1884.59$

If somebody wanted to organzie a group to really study and analyze some of this information, I would certainly be interested in helping.

Do you think all sites do this?

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Your YTD is 1% off of expectation. I think that this is fairly reasonable given a sample size of 3838. This sample size seems awfully small to make big allegations of cheating.

1p0kerboy · #**2469** 07-26-2007, 05:54 PM

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This sample size seems awfully small to make big allegations of cheating.

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I don't know if they are cheating or not. I hope they aren't.

I do know that they are doing some pretty shady things to allow some credit card transactions to go through. That I'm 100% sure of.

I did say I wouldn't put 'tweaking' the all-ins past them.

But I also said "If somebody wanted to organzie a group to really study and analyze some of this information, I would certainly be interested in helping." This isn't really accusing them of cheating.

Others here, who have much, much bigger samples of all-in pots, have said their numbers don't seem right. So of course I have taken that into account while I'm thinking about all this. Obviously you didn't when you replied pointing to nothing but my sample twice.

And finally, any allegations of cheating by me are really not "big" as you say. Lots of people say "x site is rigged!!!1" all of the time. I'm just a small stakes grinder fwiw and I should be more than welcome to say that as well should I choose.

jhill3535 · #**2470** 07-26-2007, 05:58 PM

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I think some of the numbers might be skewed in that it only shows showdown hands if I'm not mistaken?

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To answer my own question it shows all pairs that go to a flop. Some of the other numbers (such as %won, etc.) are dependent on showndown hands.

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To a degree. I don't think %won is dependant on showndown hands. If all opponents fold you get a win. If you fold you get a loss. I think it is correct.