** Official July Chat Thread: The Black Swan **

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this even statistically possible?

Sklansky Bucks
7/11 <font color="red"> -$447.07 </font>
7/12 <font color="red"> -$205.51 </font>
7/13 <font color="red"> -$214.41 </font>
7/16 <font color="red"> -$157.85 </font>
7/17 <font color="green"> +$54.17 </font>
7/18 <font color="green"> +$228.12 </font>
7/19 <font color="red"> -$129.70 </font>
7/20 <font color="red"> -$228.03 </font>
7/21 <font color="green"> +$18.97 </font>
7/23 <font color="red"> -$110.67 </font>
7/24 <font color="red"> -$168.88 </font>
7/25 <font color="red"> -$35.21 </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

i've been trying to tell you this for a long time

this is typical

the pokersites are rigging allin confrontations

evenso, they are still +ev to play

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]
Who made this originally?

This is brilliant.

[/ QUOTE ]

came from the ZOO (internet gambling forum)

[GrandMelon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Reverse float
Get there
Get berated.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 7 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $146.40
Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $156.90
UTG+1: $77.20
MP: $75.40
CO: $262.75
BTN: $125.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 Players)
5 folds, SB calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, SB calls $6.00

Flop: ($16) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $32.00</font>, Hero calls $20.00

Turn: ($80) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $48.00</font>, SB calls $48.00

River: ($176) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets all-in for $58.40</font>, Hero calls $58.40

Pot Size: $292.80 ($3 Rake)

SB had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Aces) and LOST (-$146.40)
Hero had Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a straight, Ten to Ace) and WON (+$143.40)



xplosive120 said, "disgusting"
xplosive120 said, "how you call that flop"
xplosive120 said, "that sick"
jmoney10587 said, "i hit the call button"
jmoney10587 said, "it was simple"
xplosive120 said, "just saying it was a terrible call"
jmoney10587 said, "thanks for your analysis"
xplosive120 said, "it was obviously pathetic"
xplosive120 said, "but you are too stupid to understand that"
xplosive120 said, "you had 4 outs"
jmoney10587 said, "naw"
xplosive120 said, "i played it perfect and you got lucky"
xplosive120 said, "just admit it and enjoy the money"
xplosive120 said, "cya"
jmoney10587 said, "enjoy being busto"

[/ QUOTE ]

that really is a horrible turn play. really, really bad. can you explain?

I assume most players aren't taking you for a donkey. so unless you're standard MO is calling c/r w/ air + 2 overs, then the turn bet doesn't make any sense. Unless you put the villain on overs, and your small Ax just made 2p.

anyways, why didn't you just check the turn? you're pricing yourself out of your draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not looking to draw for cheap I just want to take down the pot then and there. Lots of people in this spot feel like there getting run over in these BvB spots and c/r your cbets with tons of crap and then c/f if you call. The turn was a perfect card to bluff at so I did. Obviously Im folding if he c/r again or calls and bets the river.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Reverse float
Get there
Get berated.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 7 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $146.40
Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $156.90
UTG+1: $77.20
MP: $75.40
CO: $262.75
BTN: $125.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 Players)
5 folds, SB calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, SB calls $6.00

Flop: ($16) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $32.00</font>, Hero calls $20.00

Turn: ($80) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $48.00</font>, SB calls $48.00

River: ($176) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets all-in for $58.40</font>, Hero calls $58.40

Pot Size: $292.80 ($3 Rake)

SB had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Aces) and LOST (-$146.40)
Hero had Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a straight, Ten to Ace) and WON (+$143.40)



xplosive120 said, "disgusting"
xplosive120 said, "how you call that flop"
xplosive120 said, "that sick"
jmoney10587 said, "i hit the call button"
jmoney10587 said, "it was simple"
xplosive120 said, "just saying it was a terrible call"
jmoney10587 said, "thanks for your analysis"
xplosive120 said, "it was obviously pathetic"
xplosive120 said, "but you are too stupid to understand that"
xplosive120 said, "you had 4 outs"
jmoney10587 said, "naw"
xplosive120 said, "i played it perfect and you got lucky"
xplosive120 said, "just admit it and enjoy the money"
xplosive120 said, "cya"
jmoney10587 said, "enjoy being busto"

[/ QUOTE ]

that really is a horrible turn play. really, really bad. can you explain?

I assume most players aren't taking you for a donkey. so unless you're standard MO is calling c/r w/ air + 2 overs, then the turn bet doesn't make any sense. Unless you put the villain on overs, and your small Ax just made 2p.

anyways, why didn't you just check the turn? you're pricing yourself out of your draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow he's not trying to draw to the gutshot obviously.

He puts SB on a weak pair and the ace is a good bluff card.

[1p0kerboy]

[ QUOTE ]
i've been trying to tell you this for a long time

this is typical

the pokersites are rigging allin confrontations

evenso, they are still +ev to play


[/ QUOTE ]

I mostly think you're joking but ya never know.

[tautomer]

Maybe no consolation pokerboy but you're not alone in running cold. This covers my FR hands from this year (around 125K hands). Take out January, where I ran as expected, and the blue is basically a small line. Kind of sickening to think that someone out there could have the opposite graph. Amazingly no one has ever posted an awesome one, that I've seen anyway. I don't know how to run the EV calcs but I imagine I'm not doing well there either. I suck at flopping pairs and hitting draws in addition to flopping sets lol.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i've been trying to tell you this for a long time

this is typical

the pokersites are rigging allin confrontations

evenso, they are still +ev to play


[/ QUOTE ]

I mostly think you're joking but ya never know.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not joking
i've run the stats as best I can
everyone thinks it's a joke
oh well...makes me a tin foil crowd
whatever, the facts are the facts

[Hklm8383]

omg treyfull has changed his style

and i run so bad btw

[1p0kerboy]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not joking
i've run the stats as best I can
everyone thinks it's a joke
oh well...makes me a tin foil crowd
whatever, the facts are the facts


[/ QUOTE ]

Scary.

When you say that you've run the stats the best you could, how many players have you done this on?

Here's my YTD FTW.

found 3838 headsup allin situations
won: 2307 lost: 1409 tied: 122
average potsize: 74.38$
average ev: 0.6024
money won: 174139.15$
money expected (based on allin equity): 176023.74$
money difference: -1884.59$

If somebody wanted to organzie a group to really study and analyze some of this information, I would certainly be interested in helping.

Do you think all sites do this?

[1p0kerboy]

Hey tautomer, what program are you using for that?